Last month, Sony surprised many when the PS3 surged ahead of the Wii in monthly sales. At the time, I questioned how long Sony could maintain its lead. 

Most news articles have pointed out that Sony introduced new lower-priced models in September, while dropping the price on existing models. Certainly, both of these factors played important roles. However, part of Sony (and Microsoft’s) relatively improved performance is part of an ongoing sales trend that we first identified in our book several months ago. That does not necessarily mean that Sony will continue to lead in sales over the short term. Nintendo will likely enjoy a resurgence in sales during the holiday season, despite the fact that sales will continue to remain down compared to the same period last year.

That observation was confirmed by the latest NPD figures for October that show the Nintendo Wii back on top. 

Hardware

507k - Wii
458k - Nintendo DS
321k - PlayStation 3
250k - Xbox 360
175k - PSP
118k - PlayStation 2

For many, the big news is that the Xbox 360 continues to trail the PS3. However, given recent promotions by Walmart and Amazon that offered Xbox 360 Arcades for $100, I expect that Xbox will lead the PlayStation 3 in November sales. Overall, however, the Wii will likely remain the sales leader through the holiday season.

Next year could be a completely different story unless Nintendo does something to make the Wii competitive, as HDTV penetration and other factors begin to shift the console market in favor of Sony and Microsoft. In anticipation, Nintendo appears to be working on an upgrade to the Wii. The question is whether Nintendo will go far enough to fend off new competition from Natal and other emerging technologies.