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At the end of their E3 press conference, Microsoft had unveiled a piece of impressive technology coined simply as Project Natal. Natal is a camera for the Xbox 360, but unlike the old Xbox camera this one is light years ahead technologically. Microsoft says that the Natal can mimic the player’s movements in a one to one ratio on screen as well as have the ability for both voice and facial recognition.
Essentially Microsoft hopes that Natal can capture the mindshare of the casual audience by bypassing the barrier of physical controls. Even though only a few select individuals have had any meaningful time with the new device, Microsoft has made their intentions very clear. They want a piece of the casual market and believe that Natal is that Trojan Horse that can get them into living rooms.
However a crucial question remained. Is Natal offering an experience that will attract the casual base? Does driving a virtual car without a hefty steering wheel or interacting with Molyneux’s digital friend Milo really appeal to the casual market?
A few E3s ago when Nintendo had introduced the Wii to the world, many from the enthusiast press had berated it due to its virtual simplicity in both graphics and overall design. However, years later the Nintendo Wii would be celebrated by non-gamers because of those same features that the enthusiast press had originally dismissed.
When I look at Microsoft’s Project Natal, I do not see that concept of simplicity that Nintendo had introduced with the Wii years ago. What I see is simplicity in design, but not in function.
What Microsoft has to learn is that by just not having a controller does not make something simple. For instance, waving your hands does not make Xbox’s Dashboard any less daunting for people who are not familiar with videogames. Or just because Milo can tell how you are feeling at a certain moment does not make something approachable. Nintendo figured out a long time ago that the Wii-mote alone does not invite the casual audience to come in droves. It’s the overall philosophy of simplicity that entices them.
Take the dashboard on the Nintendo Wii for example. For those who are not familiar with videogames, the Wii dashboard is a very simple and hassle free experience. For them it is literally just a simple point and click interface that almost anyone can grasp. It is so simple in fact that anyone in your family, from your mother to your grandparents, would be able to navigate through it without trepidation.
There is absolutely nothing daunting about the Wii, which is why the casual crowd has flocked towards it. Enthusiasts of this hobby however, crave complexity and long narratives in their games. Casual players do not. They want simple, bit sized experiences or games that can be enjoyed in a group setting.
The technology that Microsoft has been showcasing through the Natal, shows in many ways the future of gaming. What Peter Molyneux has showed us through Milo, are the experiences that the enthusiasts crave. Yet to casual gamers, these experiences will seem foreign as an Xbox 360 controller.
The flaw with Microsoft’s approach to the casual market is that by just making the device simpler to interact with does not make a game any less daunting. While Natal is a good first step in inviting non-gamers to the Xbox 360, the interface that Natal works on has to become simpler as well.
Right now, Microsoft has only met the casual audience half way in promising them an inviting experience. Little things like easy interaction with the Xbox’s Dashboard and more social games like Rock Band can really go a long way. They have to realize that by having a simpler wheel does not mean anything unless the car itself is easier to drive.
As an enthusiast, I am very excited about the possibilities and the new experiences Natal could bring to the videogame medium. Yet if Microsoft thinks that just by taking away the controller will get them into the mindset of the casual crowd, then they are just missing the point entirely.
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She'll ask herself "What's the difference?", grab the one that's both cheaper and the household name this generation, and go.
It essentially boils down to that. Nobody is going to derail the wii's casual appeal this generation, it already became a household name.
Nobody seems to learn that what Nintendo did to revolutionize the market wasn't "motion control!", it was "think different!" and was strongly helped by the cheap launch price. I know most of my older relatives and aunts and uncles were like "I never really liked video games but that why,wee,wih however its pronounced thing looks pretty cool. My friend's kids got one and we played it more than them". Because it was new and interesting.
Xlive requiring a paying subscription, and Xlive being the only thing MS seems to excel at is what is keeping the X360 from casuals. Sure an interface that is simple is a nice thing, but what is the casual person going to do with their Xbox? Hook up Netflix, maybe Facebook (no keyboard)... oh yeah, all of those cost $50 a year? nah, I'll just use my phone then.
It only gets worse when you think you are going to make it a family item... oh it is $50 of EACH account on the system?! forget that.
They approached Windows 7 the same way: more or less just polished a turd, and present it to the public as a gem. They are the shameless hacks of technology. What's more shameless is, the public who enables them to be hacks, by continuing to support their incoherent products (Shame on you who bought Win7, or a second 360 at a known 56% failure rate on their own dime) So why would they change a thing, people keep giving them money?
;)
We have the tech, but people will find it too creepy to want to use. The vague feeling that the Xbox is watching you (and telling your TiVO things about you) is creepy and weird. Just like we can't have videophones because people don't want other people looking at them (in whatever state they may actually be in).
Sometimes you can invent / discover interesting things, but they are not always interesting things to everyone. Very small numbers of people enjoy software that project accurate gamma ray dispersal patterns for Neutron Stars.
I still blame my TiVO...
But I think Natal will fail to become mass market for other reasons (the same ones that plagued every other peripheral add on in console history). Microsoft, like Sony, has missed the boat this round because those 40 Million systems that already makes up their whole install base did not ship with the device. And presumably they will give consumers a choice of whether they want to get a Natal bundle with a new system so future penetration will continue to be spotty at best. Like every other add on peripheral from the Power Glove to the Eye Toy, for consumers it comes down to games and so they wait to purchase the peripheral. For developers it comes down to market penetration and so they wait for the consumers to come before supporting the device with every release. This waiting game on both sides ensures that the add-on will fail this round. Even with a whole internal division developing Natal games and a handful of other titles from the top publsihers none will be the Killer App that Wii Sports has been and without the forced adoption by shipping with every console the product will remain niche at best for this round of consoles.
$0.02
But Microsoft is hiring a bunch of people to work on the Natal (hopefully they're redesigning the front end menu system to be easier to use and creating a must have game) and, even if Natal does fail, Microsoft will learn a lot from it like they did from the original Live (and the countless other 'failures' with their #1 selling OS).
I hope they do something amazing with the Natal (I also hope Sony's Wand and Nintendo's heart rate input are huge hits), but I also know Microsoft is in this for the long term. The 360+1 will be built on lessons learned from Natal.