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Cyberspace and Twelve Monkeys
Clue
1: The Internet and the Web The
Internet and the Web just have to be the most obvious harbingers of
cyberspace and so I’ll mention these as the first big clue. Some
people may think these are already cyberspace, and like television will
remain largely unchanged (albeit increasing in resolution) for another
century. No, I don’t think so. The
Internet, yes, I think it’s pretty much consolidated itself in future
history. Perhaps IPv6 and improvements to various layers: M-Bone, something
like ATM (though some say it’s unsuitable), broadcast and cellular channels
may enhance it, but the Internet will do quite some time thank you very
much. The
Web on the other hand, well, it’s a jolly useful publication medium,
and that’s all I’ve really got to say about it. However, thank god someone
invented the search engine. It's a bit of a last minute add-on, but
it works. Without it, the Web would be a little different in terms of
usefulness. HTML
is such a simple system though. Sure it works, and I don’t want to knock
it, but the future holds far more sophisticated means of expressing
‘content’. Imagine that one day it is as easy to create a massive multiplayer
3D game, as it is to create a web site today. It would stop being a
‘game’ or ‘web site’, it would be a portion of cyberspace. Visitors
wouldn’t read your pages, they’d explore your world. Instead of discussion
pages, you’d have rooms: workshops with works in progress, meeting places
with avatars wandering around (no, not the dire avatars we have today). Instead
of links to other sites, you’d have portals or scaled down references
to other worlds. It would all be dynamic, interactive, live, you name
it. It’s
on its way. The
web gives us a clue that everyone will collaborate to produce the vast
content required for cyberspace. Imagine going to a venture capitalist
in 1985 and saying you had this great idea for a massive hyperbook that
could be accessed via a global network. “Oh no sir, it wouldn’t cost
much to produce as there must be quite a few hobbyists who wouldn’t
mind giving up some of their spare time free of charge to help come
up with some content”. You must be totally off your rocker! Clue
2: Interactivity Why
has passive entertainment been so passive for so long? Well, it’s a
technology thing isn’t it? I bet there are many kids who start off thinking
the TV presenter is talking directly to them, and respond as though
it was an interactive medium. Trouble is, because it is indeed passive,
the kids are effectively taught at an early age that such wonders are
strictly a one-way process. The TV is a box of tiny people who don’t
seem to listen or care – even if they pay lip service to the idea. Even
video games are relatively passive. You don’t really get to see the
kid in the other Porsche get out and kick the tires in frustration at
getting beaten yet again. Nor then get to realize that oops, it’s the
school bully. Once
children start growing up with the idea that they are linked in ever
increasing fidelity to other children across the planet, then we should
see better and more interactive uses made of the Internet. Or at least,
there’ll be loads of frustrated kids trying to remedy the situation. It’s
getting that way already. School kids are learning to use e-mail (and
lots more besides). So watch out! The demand to interact with other
humans in constructive and recreational ways will increase. That means
games as well as business oriented collaboration. But,
why don’t we all just go outside and collaborate with our neighbors
in person? You sure have got me there pal. I haven’t a clue. I guess
computers are a glass shield against people’s more emotional natures.
But, it could work completely opposite to the pessimists’ fears: cyberspace
could break down the barriers between people so much, that people start
treating each other in person in a far more familiar way – and then
realize a bit too late that maybe they shouldn’t have been so derogatory
to the guy on the other side of the street… The
online experience is getting far more interactive, and you ain’t seen
nothing yet! Clue
3: Birds of a Feather Being
a diverse bunch, people will probably find it much easier to associate
with like-minded souls if they can select from billions rather than
just a few other folk they know in the same town. Cyberspace
will bring birds of a feather together. Great minds will think alike,
and severally, so better than one. Surely this is a significant acceleration
of the human capacity for invention and progress? The
Web is enabling this today. Of course, it produces concentrations of
all sorts – sweet as well as savory. If
we were suddenly threatened by an alien invasion, you can bet that the
Internet would be indispensable in bringing the best minds to bear in
solving all the problems involved in mounting a defense. The
Internet is too useful to be a flash in the pan. The better it gets
at allowing special interest groups to converse and cross-fertilize,
then the more it will be used. Interactive, even immersive, cyberspace
is bound to be compatible with these ends. Clue
4: Leisure Time Well,
there’s a hell of a lot of people producing Web pages and I don’t see
many people paying to read ‘em! It must be leisure time. People evidently
have far too much of it (from the perspective of a puritan work ethic). Without
leisure time, perhaps few people would read the Web, let alone write
for it. But, anyway, it seems that people do have enough time to spend
using it. This probably comes down to macro-economics -- you know, modern
society over-producing to such an extent that most people get some hours
each day to perform non-survival based activities. I presume that barring
world wars, leisure time is going to increase. This
is good news for cyberspace. It’s just a communications mechanism and
so it’s a bit difficult to see how anyone using it is actually creating
anything necessary for survival. And so it may appear a little obscene
to some people to envision a future where most of the developed world
spends a good deal of their time cruising cyberspace. Perhaps we can
build robots to plough the fields, and use nuclear fusion for power? More
leisure time means more demand for better and more sophisticated ways
of utilizing it. Cyberspace meets that need! Clue
5: Computer Power How
many times do we have to say this? Computer power just keeps on doubling
every year or so doesn’t it? So
anyone who doubts that computers will ever be powerful enough to do
things like they do in the movies only needs to wait a few years – probably
within their lifetime – before today’s far-fetched ideas soon end up
on their list of electronic goodies to buy for Christmas. OK,
perhaps Moore’s law will grind to a halt when CPUs hit the light speed
barrier (circuit latency and unplanned quantum effects), or will it?
Well, I very much doubt it. I expect that by that time, CPUs will then
be so cheap that the number of them appearing on a motherboard (or wafer)
will double every so often – instead of the clock speed. We’ll see computers
getting more and more parallel in operation. With
this endless escalation of client-side computing power, VR can’t be
far off. If we sort out the networking issues then cyberspace won’t
be at all held back by technology. I trust that haptics will make good
progress too. Clue
6: The Information Age Internet
or not, the computer is certainly not going away, and nor is the vastness
of the information it is increasingly given to process. We are in the
information age and the more tools and facilities that can help our
poor Neanderthal brains digest and comprehend just a fraction of this
information, so much the better. Being
able to explore this information universe in an immersive fashion, using
all our senses, 3D vision, hearing, touch, taste, and smell, will provide
us with richer and more powerful ways of understanding the mass of information
we’ll have to cope with in the future. If
cyberspace allows us to collaborate interactively while so immersed,
then the shared task of comprehension must be a much lighter and more
enjoyable burden. Clue
7: Society We
are a social creature. We like to play and manipulate, build things
– build concrete and social structures. We like to tell stories, to
make things for other people to use. The
Web is just one of the latest in a long line of technologies or mediums
in which people are able to express themselves, by building information
spaces for others to explore. Similarly,
cyberspace will be an environment in which people can construct miniature
worlds for others to explore and interact with and within. These worlds
will allow us to explore our heritage, our past, our history, our present,
our future, and our imagination. And this recreation will often be constructive. Clue
8: Progress and Inevitability Well,
if you’re a fatalist, then you probably know that the way of progress
is inexorable. If something is plausible, and feasible with the right
equipment, well there’s simply no stopping it. Cloning of US Presidents,
GM plants that extrude spaghetti directly, old black & white movies
in 3D color, cyberspace – they’re all bound to happen whether or not
some people think other things are more worthy pursuits. Cyberspace
is not a separate idea that geeks waste their time over while the rest
of the world continues using conventional methods – like the Web – if
that’s conventional. In fact, it is these so called conventional methods
that are undergoing change beneath our feet. Just
as you think you’ve got DOS pinned down, along comes Windows, and E-mail,
and then the Web. Perhaps people think it’s just themselves that are
the ones adapting to a fairly sedate, but advanced computer technology?
Oh no, people are racing along trying to jump onto moving trains, and
then realizing that they still can’t rest, they have to run along the
roof of this train and hop on to a faster one. The trains just keep
on getting faster and you can never stop jumping or you’ll be left behind. Did
I just hear someone ask: So who’s driving the damn trains? Interesting
question… There is a bit of a green movement that suggests that perhaps
we should stopping putting coal in the furnace of progress and revert
to a more pastoral life, or at least a more sustainable one that is
kinder to the environment. Somehow, I doubt our competitive nature will
let that happen. But
you never know, cyberspace may end up doing such a good job of putting
producers in touch with consumers, that the environmental impact of
consumption decreases, i.e. less travel and transport, and so less building
and fuel required. Food, shelter, and cyberspace – what more could anyone
want? It’s
a bit like the computer heralding the paperless office, but ending up
producing far more paper than ever before. Perhaps the Web is the same?
Everyone thought that it was the end of the book, but it turned out
to be just a far better way of selling the damn things. Could cyberspace
be not necessarily the end of personal contact, but instead a far more
effective way of bringing people together? Don’t
wait. Jump now. So,
Cyberspace is Coming That
should be enough clues for you. Perhaps you’re already convinced and
have spotted these and more clues yourself. Either way, it’s about time
we started the ball rolling. There’s
been enough hype about cyberspace that it’s a bit like Santa Claus and
his reindeer. There are a lot of kids who’ll be disappointed if the
evidence of their existence fails to materialize at the right time.
So like parents putting out stockings on Christmas Eve, there’s going
to have to be a team of us coders hard at work, doing our best to demonstrate
to the world that cyberspace is, as the portents promise, on its way.
Of course, it’ll never really exist, but then that’s VR for you. I
don’t think there’s really a surfeit of coders working on the problem
at the moment, so I wouldn’t be shy about adding your shoulder to this
tricky problem. Cyberspace
needs you! ________________________________________________________ |
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