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 Features
Statistically Speaking, It's Probably a Good Game, Part 1: Probability for Game Designers
 Probability + Statistics = Cool
Probability (P) and Statistics (S) are two hard sciences that are hugely important to game designers—or at least should be! They go together like peas and carrots, but like those yummy veggies, they aren’t the same thing. Coarsely put:
Probability: predicts the chance that an event will happen
Statistics: draws conclusions based upon events that have already happened
Taken together, P and S allow you to perform amazing parlor tricks: you can both predict the future and analyze the past! What power! Remember, though: “With great power comes great responsibility.”
P and S are simply tools in your Designer’s Toolbox (you know—the one under your desk). You can and should use them to your advantage to design games that are better balanced and ultimately more fun!
Good and Bad Things Come in Threes
There are lots of scary, thick textbooks out there about P and S, and this discussion isn’t meant to be a substitute for you going out, doing your due diligence and reading them. (Note: falling asleep with them on your chest *does not* count as learning.)
What this series of 3 articles *will* do is give you a basic understanding of some key topics from both P and S. Specifically, we’ll focus on things that designers should give a rat’s behind about.
- Part 1 (You’re reading it, buster): Probability for Game Designers
- Part 2: Statistics for Game Designers
- Part 3: Shaping Game Mechanics with Probability and Statistics
Remember, being a well-rounded designer doesn’t mean you have to be an expert in these things; you just have to be able to fool anyone else who isn’t!
TIP: Increasing your usage of “theoretically”, “codify”, and “taxonomy” will most certainly impress your coworkers towards these ends. Other disciplines love it when designers use big words! You can thank me for this wisdom later.
The Ivory Tower in Which Designers Live
Ok, enough beating around the bush — on to the good stuff!
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