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Analyze This: Handicapping
the 2006 Holiday Gift-Buying Season
On the next-generation consoles: Our recent study on "next-gen purchase intent" showed that the PS3 enjoys the highest future purchase intent of all three systems. I believe that Sony has built an incredible brand and in this third generation Playstation will continue to enjoy great success in both hardware and software sales. Right now, the Wii has the lowest level of awareness of the three systems, but a similar level of future purchase intent as the 360 -- which in my mind really points to great untapped potential as the marketing ramps up. The Wii has some incredible momentum behind it right now, and certainly the marketing behind the system (demonstrations, ad campaign, etc.) has really succeeded in making gaming on the Wii look incredibly fun, and accessible.
Our purchase intent study shows that immediate purchase intent for the 360 is pretty low, while a good portion of those interested in purchasing a 360 are waiting for a price drop. Microsoft may have tapped out that less price sensitive early adopter portion of the market. The 360 has had a year lead in this next-gen race, and now that they've addressed the production issues, which constrained inventory early on, the story is all about delivering the content, whether first or third-party, that will drive continued sales of hardware. Other thoughts: Zelda! The game with the highest degree of anticipation appears to be The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess. Other titles I expect to finish well for the holiday season are Call of Duty 3, Final Fantasy XII, and Gears of War. The industry is up 12% so far this year, and I think there is nothing but good news ahead as we finish out 2006. We should comfortably achieve record-breaking revenues this year. |
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