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Analyze This: Handicapping
the 2006 Holiday Gift-Buying Season
On the next-generation consoles: The PS3 will sell out everywhere until well after year-end. That's a function of extremely limited expected supply, and a large number of hardcore gamers with money. The Wii will also sell out everywhere, again, until after year-end. Supply will likely be twice the PS3 number (around 2 million), and demand could be higher initially for two reasons: First, the price is comparatively low; and second, the box doesn't require an HD monitor, meaning that everyone can plug-and-play and derive full enjoyment. The 360 continues to chug along, and Gears of War looks like a credible killer app. I'd guess that Microsoft sells around 1.5-to-2 million [Xbox 360 consoles] in November and December, keeping pace with the Wii.
Other thoughts: A huge hit this season will be Guitar Hero II, which I expect to be in scarce supply due to manufacturing constraints for the guitars. (The interesting metric will be how many PS2s are sold to old guys like me who just want that game.) I'd guess that software sales are up, probably by 5-to-10%. The limiting factor is hardware availability, and if people decide to wait until after year-end to buy next-generation boxes and hold off on software purchases, those numbers could be lower. I don't think that they will wait. It will be interesting to see if retailers talk consumers looking for a PS3 into a 360. It will also be interesting to see if PSP sales continue to lag, especially given Sony's focus on the PS3. |
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