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Analyze This: Handicapping
the 2006 Holiday Gift-Buying Season
On the next-generation consoles: Consumers without preorders are going to be hard-pressed to find a PS3. The bigger story for Sony this year may actually be the PS2, which continues to sell well six years after launch. We expect Wii to sell very well with a lot of pent-up demand for the system. Nintendo has an opportunity with Wii to expand into a broader and more mainstream consumer audience. The 360 has a few points in its favor this holiday: the fact that we are seeing the second generation of 360 titles is one advantage; the PS3 supply issues could also help boost sales if retailers direct disappointed consumers to the Xbox 360; and Gears of War may be the first game since Call of Duty 2 to really drive hardware sales. Look also for early promotions of Halo 3, and ongoing traction with Xbox Live to help differentiate the 360 from the other platforms.
Other thoughts: You will probably hear a lot about the big first-party titles, but there are definitely a number of third-party games that should also perform well, such as Call of Duty 3, Red Steel and Need for Speed. The PS3 and Wii launches will help drive traffic to stores, but consumers will be walking away with more products for the older platforms. You have a healthy PS2 market, and the DS and PSP handhelds should be popular holiday gifts. We are just reaching the starting line in terms of the next generation. But looking out to holiday 2007 you should expect a more intense battle among the platforms, and that's when we will get a better sense for who the winners and losers might be. |
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