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Analyze This: Which Console Will Win 2007? (...And Other Humble Guesses for the Year)
On Nintendo and the Wii... "The Wii got off to a great launch creating a great deal of positive buzz. However, to say any system is destined to be number one at this point is very premature. We are barely started in this generation and most consumers have only begun to make assessments about the new systems. One thing, if you look at the Wii, is that the Zelda title [Twilight Princess] had a very high sell-in rate in the first two months. This is an indication that many of the initial Wii purchasers were part of the already converted. Nintendo systems have a solid fan base, but the real challenge for Nintendo is reaching out to the consumers that bought competing systems for the past two generations. The biggest danger is that the positive buzz around the Wii starts to wear off before consumers start buying new game systems en masse."
On Microsoft and the Xbox 360... "The Xbox 360 is definitely on track to out-sell the original Xbox. As for price cuts we don't like to make those type of speculations. What Microsoft should do is closely monitor ongoing sales and moves by the competition and be prepared to be aggressive on price. There are also many bundling opportunities that can make a system attractive without the big profit hit a raw price cut would entail." On Sony and the PlayStation 3... "This generation is barely started, and there is no way you can say Sony has already lost it. Sony definitely still cares about video games and unlike with Microsoft it is a very important sector for the overall company's bottom line. Sony's strategy is to keep the PS2 base alive and happy as long as possible and migrate them to the PS3. The PS2 base is huge and the system is still selling a lot of hardware at retail. That is a big ace up Sony's sleeve. In terms of sales, if the PS3 is seen as the premium system, that is a nice-long term position. I think the risk is that the PlayStation base may not be as loyal or patient as Sony is counting on." |
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