The 10 Minutes Game Sales Potential Test
 Is the Target Market Large?
If you target a very large market with a superior game, you’re bound to sell more than if you target a small one. Is your game concept tailored to please a large group of people?
This question is tied to the previous one, because the people who “get” the game become your market. It’s not the only factor however; many factors affect how large your market is. If you make a very complicated game while trying to reach casual game players, you’re limiting the people you can reach, for example.
A medium-sized market that you can reach very effectively can be better than a huge market that you can’t reach well. Finding a good niche for your game can make your job easier: it’s often better to be a big fish in a small pond than a small fish in a big pond. Make sure to always target a market large enough to be profitable, however.
Some large markets are still left nearly untouched by gaming. That’s what made The Sims so popular: hardcore players didn’t understand why a game about real life could be exciting, but for a lot of people that was more interesting than blasting aliens invading the earth. By making sure your game fits the taste of a large number of people, you increase its sales potential.
Anatomy of a Mega Hit: Grand Theft Auto 3
Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 3
Now that we’ve covered the questions of the test, let’s see how they apply to a mega-hit: Grand Theft Auto 3.
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Does GTA stand out viscerally? Definitely. You can seemingly go everywhere, do anything and playing a gangster was new at the time.
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Does GTA’s gameplay stand out? Yes, its open-ended gameplay was among the first of its type.
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Does GTA involve the player socially in a unique way? Not directly, but it’s a lot of fun to tell your friends the crazy way you found to get through a mission.
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Is the idea behind GTA easy to communicate? Absolutely: “You’re a gangster doing missions for the mob, stealing cars and doing whatever you want in the city.”
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Is GTA based on something the market already knows and loves? Not only was GTA3 the sequel to the previous Grand Theft Auto games, it’s also set in the popular gangster culture.
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Is the target market for GTA large? History showed it was the case, which is unsurprising considering it’s based on a popular theme.
Besides the social aspect, Grand Theft Auto 3 does very well in every other category. Even in the social aspect, it’s better than most single player games. With such a high score, it’s no surprise Grand Theft Auto became such a phenomenon.
Anatomy of a Commercial Miss: Psychonauts
Double Fine's Psychonauts
I love Psychonauts. It’s one of the best Xbox games I’ve played – one of the best games for any platform in fact. That’s why it’s so painful to see how unsuccessful it was commercially. Let’s see if this test could have helped anticipate trouble.
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Does Psychonauts stand out viscerally? Yes. The unique visual style and the humor help make this game stand apart.
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Does Psychonaut’s gameplay stand out? Probably not enough – the core of the gameplay is pretty standard platforming action, even with unique levels.
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Does Psychonauts involve the player socially in a unique way? Not really, there’s nothing to make players want to become active members of a community about it.
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Is the idea behind Psychonauts easy to communicate? No, and it’s probably the game’s biggest problem. “It’s a platform game in which you’re psychic kid exploring people’s mind” – it’s hard to understand why that’s cool unless you’ve already played the game.
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Is Psychonauts based on something the market already knows and loves? No. Kids at psychic camp exploring surreal representation of people’s mind just hasn’t become mainstream yet.
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Is the target market for Psychonauts large? While a lot of people like platformers, how many of those are interested in surreal experiences involving psychic kids? The market was limited by the strange theme.
While Psychonauts’ gameplay is very solid, it lacks most factors that would make easy to sell. The result: a great game that didn’t get the sales it deserved.
What About Creativity?
There is a lot of money going into making games and the people with money want to see profits, ideally large amounts of it. If original games are created without an eye to achieving large sales, investing in those projects will be risky. If investing in original titles becomes riskier, the people with money will prefer to invest in safer, less creative projects. If that happens – and it seems to be happening right now – creativity suffers.
I hope this test will help find the creative game ideas that have the best sales potential, so that costly mistakes can be avoided. A rising tide lifts all ships: the fewer mistakes we make, the stronger the industry will become.
If you have any questions or comments about this test, don’t hesitate to contact me at pag@gameideas.org
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