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Analyze This: How Exclusive Will Exclusive Games Be in This Generation?
On how important exclusive titles are this generation: Given the hardware market is likely to be more competitive this time round, we aren't seeing the pressures which existed in the [prior] generation for third parties to coalesce around one dominant hardware platform. Yet. On the other hand, acquiring [several] exclusive games for a console platform is much more significant in terms of driving hardware sales. This brings to mind Phil Harrison's oft quoted observation: "Killer games don't matter; killer catalogs do." On whether developers still benefit from developing exclusive titles: In my view there is no incentive for third parties to develop exclusively for a single platform, unless there is some form of financial inducement from the hardware manufacturer. If you want the largest potential user base, you go multi-platform. On console-moving exclusives to keep an eye on this year: This stage of the hardware cycle is interesting for watching out for a new or retooled IP which might explode in the same way Grand Theft Auto did in the previous generation. Obviously, it's nigh on impossible to predict which titles might do this. But titles which exploit console connectivity might offer some possibilities, including the ability for users to contribute content to a game experience or game world.
As for established franchises: Xbox 360 will be driven by Halo 3 and Wii will see iterations from the Metroid, Mario and Super Smash Bros. series. I am also interested by Wii Health. Given the success of Wii Sports, I believe a well-crafted Wii Health title has the potential to sell large volumes. I have a feeling more will be revealed about PlayStation 3. There have been numerous hints at some very interesting new IP. Lair, Warhawk and Heavenly Sword will be published by Sony but are relatively unknown. From third parties, Metal Gear Solid 4 is the big story. |
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Ed Barton, 
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