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Analyze This: How Exclusive Will Exclusive Games Be in This Generation?
On how important exclusive titles are this generation: There is no clearly dominant console. That means an exclusive will only address 40% of the potential market this time around, instead of 65% last cycle. Ultimately, the publishers have to assess whether the amount of foregone profit is greater than any incentive they receive for an exclusive. In many cases, there will be "de facto" exclusives, like Saints Row, that come out before a competing console is launched. Most of the time, we'll see launches on the PS3 and the 360 simultaneously this year. On whether developers still benefit from developing exclusive titles: It is probably a detriment to rely on exclusive content for developers, since they are going to address only a portion of the market for their products. Of course, if the developer can only afford to make a game for one platform, they'll likely choose the dominant platform. Today, that's the Xbox 360. Next year, it may be the Wii. The year after, it could be the PS3. The point is, developers have to make a choice a couple of years out, and most do not have perfect visibility into the future. That means fewer exclusives.
On console-moving exclusives to keep an eye on this year: I think Gran Turismo 4 will move a lot of PS3s, but don't really see a lot of other games that will move the needle this year for hardware sales. The biggest drivers will be the first party titles, which are all exclusive. So Halo 3 is the biggest. Games like Crackdown are also great drivers of hardware sales. Not asked: the impact of Blu-ray. I think that Sony [could] sell a ton of PS3s in the fall if they bundle Spider-Man 3 [the Blu-ray version of the movie] with the PS3. Got a business-related question concerning the games industry that you would like to suggest for discussion in Analyze This? Are you a professional analyst and would like to take part in this column? Email howardhwen@gmail.com. |
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Michael Pachter , 
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