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 Features
Postcard
from GDC Mobile 2003:
Mobile Challenges Mean Opportunities
"I
believe that in a couple years, the mobile games business will be bigger
than PC and console gaming combined."
-Ilkka Raiskinen, SVP Entertainment, Nokia
Few
sectors in today's economy are as laden with potential as the mobile gaming
sector. As games grow exponentially as a medium and mobile phones continue
to proliferate the consumer landscape worldwide (at a rate of 15 percent
total market penetration in China, now the top worldwide mobile phone
market, with 7.0 million wireless gamers worldwide in 2002), people from
all facets of the games industry agree that the revenue potential in wireless
gaming is one that cannot be ignored.
Developers,
operators, and handset makers from all around the world converged on the
Fairmont Hotel in San Jose for the first-ever GDC Mobile summit, which
took place March 4-5 at the Game Developers Conference. For the first
time ever, the big players (for example, handset manufacturer Nokia, wireless
carrier NTT DoCoMo, and operators Sprint and AT&T) came together under
one roof to discuss the business opportunities and challenges the medium
faces with regards to mobile games. While everyone agrees the medium's
time has come, the challenge in paving the way for the future is mostly
that clear roadmaps do not yet exist for forging profitable business relationships.
There needs to be a symbiotic partnership between developers, publishers,
distributors, and operators, and the number of stops along the production
pipeline imply incredible complexity. The following themes stood out and
were echoed by various speakers as key points that need to be addressed
before further progress can be made in really pushing the medium forward
to the next level.
- The
profile of the average wireless gamer is changing. Several speakers,
including both keynote presenters Ilkka Raiskinen of Nokia and NTT DoCoMo
managing director Takeshi Natsuno noted that the mobile gamer demographic
as well as the way that they play games is changing rapidly. As gadgets
become fancier (with new products such as the N-Gage that Nokia is releasing
in Q4 of 2003), connectivity becomes more rapid, and mobile phones continue
to proliferate the mass market, Raiskinen believes that gaming will
evolve from a more personal enterprise to a social activity, and the
profile of the "typical" wireless gamer will change from that
of a solitary commuter to someone who games with friends after hours,
in a social setting. With that demographic in mind, developers and publishers
will need to develop appropriate marketing strategies to address the
changing niche market.
- Profit
sharing models need to be created that minimize risk. All profit-sharing
scenarios need to consider the interests of developers, carriers, and
operators alike. Developers put human and financial capital behind the
development of a new title and need to strike a royalty arrangement
with publishers, who put their own capital behind marketing games and
need a good return on investment. In the absence of concrete projections
of how many people will buy new mobile games and considering the changing
demographic, it will be very challenging to take those risks. Adding
to the challenge, a completely different set of business negotiations
need to occur between the carriers and operators. Such companies as
AT&T and Sprint will have to address their own ROI questions when
it comes to working with publishers, clarifying the marketing relationships
(What handset will AT&T market along with its new wireless pricing
plan) and pricing structure (Will subscribers pay per download or per
month)?
- Content
is King. One of the reasons that wireless gaming is both so exciting
and frustrating an enterprise is at the same time as the business processes
have not yet been streamlined, the languages and technologies have evolved
sufficiently to accommodate sophisticated mobile gameplay. As Mitch
Lasky said in the March 4 panel discussion "The Truth Behind Mobile
Game Publishing, "Only when you have the concept ready can you
have a discussion about efficient platforms." Almost across the
board, speakers representing developers and handset manufacturers agreed
that such highly developed languages as Bluetooth, EDGE, and CDMA, and
platforms like Java, Series 60, and Symbian could make just about any
imaginable form of gameplay possibly, even MMO gaming on wireless phones.
Regardless of what standpoint you're coming from in the production pipeline,
it is clear that the technologies await good games, not visa versa.
The overriding
question of GDC Mobile was "When is this going to happen, and how
are we going to make it happen?" Though no clear-cut answer exists
at this moment, the enthusiasm, curiosity, and genuine willingness to
listen to one another's concerns make the future very bright for everyone
trying to make games for the wireless sector. With cooperation, anything
and everything will be possible.
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