Newswire - Industry Analysis

Second Hand Smoke
Aging Empires
 
By Omid Rahmat
[GamaProfile]

Gamasutra
August 7, 1998
Vol. 2: Issue 31


Attn: Gama Readers.  This is a biweekly column.  If you have any points to raise, whether anonymously or openly, please [email] the writer your thoughts. Gamasutra is a great forum for raising industry awareness. I'd like some of that to come from your input.
Old Smoke

Siggraph Musings on Motion Capture

[07.24.98]

I, I, I, iMac

[07.10.98]

Scene Graphs - Somewhere New to Joust

[06.26.98]



Blow your own smoke in [Threads]

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Pathetic isn't it? Just look at the tables below. In the past six months, we have Myst, its sequel Riven, Quake, Duke Nukem, Deer Hunter, Flight Simulator 98, and Starcraft leading the pack.  There's a quick burst by Unreal, and then things like Monopoly Multimedia in the post-Christmas shopping season, Wheel of Fortune (who plays this stuff?), and in case you didn't get it the first time around, Myst and its sequel Riven. So, that's Broderbund, Sierra Online, GT Interactive, Interplay, Blizzard, Lucas Arts, Microsoft and EA. If you ask me, it's the end of the world for a while. Nothing here that a bunch of fat ass keyboard jockeys with facetious bios couldn't predict in a drunken stupor.

The good news? Deer and fish are in abundance. Who needs to hunt when Wal-Mart can sell you a hunting game for $15 plus a six pack of Doodelbury's Original Root Beer. But, I don't really care about this. Harold Robbins, and Danielle Steele make the bestseller lists in book stores, and there is such a place as Crown Books in the local mall that sells discounted Oprah Gets Thin Again books by the pound yet, it doesn't necessarily mean that we should abandon reading completely. Try a Walter Mosley, or John Banville, or if you're that kind of person, an Iain M. Banks. By the same token, someone has got to be playing Leisure Suit Larry out there. There's a correlation in there somewhere, but like I said, that's not what I am interested in.

My concern is Microsoft. Yup. Microsoft. Age of Empires. I like it, but please don't send me e-mail saying why I am stupid for doing so. I just love all of the cute creatures that roam around, and you get to kill them, and/or just watch them prance around. And the fish. Those little darlings squirm and jump in large shoals, just begging to be netted. Love the animals. Wonder how much it cost them to make something so grand. Was it worth it when they could have had the rights to Frogger?

The point is, Microsoft the threat, the demonized competitor, doesn't really cut it in the games business. Flight Simulator was around before there was a Microsoft content strategy, and it will still be there until Microsoft has a content strategy. Well, actually, Microsoft should pull out of content. Waste of time. Look at the biggest game publisher around, EA, and they're not setting anyone's loins on fire, in a metaphorical sense, with their titles. They have EA Sports, and the rest is pure corporate machinery. All for a billion dollars and not much profit. Why would Microsoft want to be in such a cheap ass business full of fat ass opinionated columnists? Beats me.

Do they need to test DirectX? Well, hardly. None of the titles coming out of Microsoft are exactly cutting edge, or hard core. Oops. See what happens? I say they don't have cutting edge games, and I am sure that there is someone, somewhere, reading this and thinking, "No way, dude. Microsoft rocks." Then you get the nasty e-mails. The two thousand word essays on why a particular game is just the closest thing to heaven on earth, and so on, and so on. Who wants to be in such a subjective, emotional business? It shouldn't even be a business, except on consoles, but that's really for kids, and who cares if they're getting ripped off. It's not like they have to earn their money. Nope. On the PC, the games industry should be clans, and allegiances to developer gurus, and game masters who have perfected their calluses on blackened keyboards, and cheap mice.


Table 1: 1Q98 monthly sales charts for PC games (Source: NPD)
  January February March
1 Deer Hunter Deer Hunter Deer Hunter
2 Myst Myst Deer Hunter: Extended Season
3 MS Flight Simulator 98 Need for Speed Classic Starcraft
4 Quake II MS Flight Simulator 98 Myst
5 Rivin: The Sequel to Myst Rivin: The Sequel to Myst Titanic: Journey out of Time
6 Tomb Raider 2 Quake II Star Wars Rebellion
7 Age of Empires Trophy Bass Trophy Bass
8 Wheel of Fortune Age of Empires Wheel of Fortune
9 Frogger Nascar Track Cabela's Big Game Hunter
10 Trophy Bass Frogger MS Flight Simulator 98
11 Sierra Pro Pilot Tomb Raider 2 Wild Turkey Hunt
12 40 Best Windows95 Games 40 Best Windows95 Games Quake II
13 Monopoly Multimedia Jedi Knight: Mysteries of Sith Age of Empires
14 Road Rash Road Rash Duke Nukem 3D
15 Need for Speed Classic Wheel of Fortune Rivin: The Sequel to Myst

You put the suits in charge and they come up with Deer Hunter, Deer Hunter: Extended Season (goodness, how many of the little sweethearts can you kill with one CD), Trophy Bass, Big Game Hunter, and Space Bunnies Must Die. Why would Microsoft want to be in this business? It's unseemly, and unprofitable. However, as long as there are people in the computer business who think that computer games will get them a movie deal, or their own action figure line, there will be millions spent on the unprofitable pursuit of mainstream games success. Well, I like Age of Empires.

Table 2: 2Q98 monthly sales charts for PC games (Source: NPD)
  April May June
1 Starcraft Starcraft Starcraft
2 Deer Hunter Unreal MMX Unreal MMX
3 Cabela's Big Game Hunter Deer Hunter Deer Hunter
4 Titanic: Journey out of Time Titanic: Journey out of Time Cabela's Big Game Hunter
5 Deer Hunter: Extended Season Might & Magic 6 X-Files
6 Myst Cabela's Big Game Hunter Rocky Mountain Trophy Hunter
7 Star Wars Rebellion Myst Final Fantasy VII
8 Trophy Bass Deer Hunter: Extended Season Myst
9 Police Quest 5 SWAT Army Men Titanic: Journey out of Time
10 Nascar 2 Nascar Track Duke Nukem 3D
11 Nascar Track Trophy Bass MS Flight Simulator 98
12 Quake 2 Duke Nukem 3D SimCity 2000 Special Ed.
13 MS Flight Simulator 98 Star Wars Rebellion Nascar Track
14 Duke Nukem/Quake Bndl. MS Flight Simulator 98 Descent: Freespace
15 Rivin: The Sequel to Myst Police Quest 5 SWAT Mech Commander

I like a lot of games. But, they are kind of dispensible. So, maybe Microsoft is finding out the hard way that this games business is not really worth spit for a company that makes real money from software. Strategic value? Look at all the successful games companies out there? Which one of them has strategic value? The big publishers have channels. Sure. Distribution. Maybe that was what Microsoft was thinking too.

"We have distribution. Let's stick games on our shelf space with retailers. Easy money."

Millions of MS Office users, and Windows 98 upgrades, in a matter of months, and what's the best they can do with a game title, after a year, even if they get a Myst? Three and half million. Glitch in the system --  three and a half million. Three hundred or four hundred thousand units. You have to sell a hell of lot of SKUs to make up for it. Stack 'em high. Screw the developer. Get a top twenty title and make it a loss leader to get your crap on the shelf, and then watch it go at discount prices. Games are dispensible. Screw the developer.

No wonder there is such a thing as a Gathering of Developers, but you really have to screw the developer to be successful. Unless the developer has already put the screws on you, a la iD Software. They call the shots, but they're a breed apart. Everyone wants their deal. Does Microsoft really want to soil their corporate image with this stuff?

I haven't got the data right now, but if 30% of retail sales of titles can move online we'll see a change in the industry's dynamics. Games alongside music, and reading matter. Not too far off now. Maybe not so many screwed developers. Maybe they get indie fever and do the groundwork themselves. Microsoft doesn't need that business either. They're better off selling servers and development tools to make it happen, or bringing DirectX to set-top boxes. That's cool stuff. That's getting into the games industry the right way. Selling titles, great or bad, is not a business for real businessmen. It's a flea market. It's a bazaar. It's deer genocide, people. Anyone goes on a butterfly rampage, and I can't promise that publishers won't get hurt. There are lots of decent people like myself that just won't stand for the flagrant abuse of insects in motion capture studios.

I give it another six months, and we'll see some big shake-ups in the PC game publishers. They can't keep going on as they have been for the last six months. The console business is holding up the industry. I have to get more data. Time to plan for 1999. Time to think about a change. You don't want to be caught napping with the Wal-Mart crowd around.

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Omid is the principal wordsmith at Doodah, a business name that only he may find amusing, and his wife believes will lead them to Penury (a small retirement resort off the coast of Madagascar). Omid provides all manner of writing services for those in the computer industry willing to overcome their reluctance to associate themselves with a business called Doodah. He writes for numerous trade publications, as well as doing private market analysis for companies willing to pay him exorbitant amounts of money or make promises of same. In addition, he flexes his funny bone writing copy for Web sites, packaging, brochures, advertising and PR campaigns. Wherever words of wisdom and wit are required, Doodah is there.  You can reach Omid at omid@compuserve.com.