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Analysts: Wii To Regain Control, PS3 To Struggle In October NPD
by Brandon Boyer
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November 12, 2007
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Ahead of the release of NPD's October hardware and software sales results, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter and simExchange's Jesse Divnich have predicted the Wii will once again emerge on top of the hardware charts, and Activision will dominate software with Guitar Hero and Call of Duty.
Though the September release of Halo 3 saw Xbox 360 sales push just past those of the Wii, the analysts have said that despite hardware shortages, Nintendo's console will regain its top slot. Pachter has predicted 450,000 Wiis sold to simExchange's 467,000, ahead of their Xbox 360 predictions of 325,000 and 412,000.
Both see PS3 in last place with 125,000 and 136,000 units sold respectively, despite the 80GB model's recent price drop to $499. However, Divnich notes that overall global lifetime sales are still being predicted through the simExchange service as reaching 52 million units.
He added, "These estimates are a strong indication that we can expect more PS3 price cuts, stronger exclusive titles, and a deeper market penetration of Blu-Ray movies."
Pachter has predicted software sales for the month of $555 million, up 50 percent from October of 2006. "Although we think that sales of Halo 3, The Orange Box and Guitar Hero III accounted for virtually all of the growth during the month, we think that improving hardware console pricing and the broad diversity and popularity of software will position the industry for solid sales growth in November and December.
SimExchange's market has predicted $565 million in sales, with Halo 3, The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass, Half-Life 2: Orange Box, Guitar Hero III, and Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction leading the charts.
However, Divnich says of the latter that Sony still may struggle with first party game sales, as its market predictions have only put Ratchet at 131,000 units, lower than Heavenly Sword's 139,000.
"This comes as a huge disappointment as critics have scored Ratchet & Clank much higher than Heavenly Sword. The prediction market's expectations helps emphasize the markets concern over the software attachment rate of PS3 software titles," concluded Divnich.
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