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Analyst Cuts PS3 Predictions, Sees Lack Of Sales Drivers
Analyst Cuts PS3 Predictions, Sees Lack Of Sales Drivers
January 23, 2009 | By Leigh Alexander

January 23, 2009 | By Leigh Alexander
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More: Console/PC



Though 2008 NPD results showed a slowdown in the games biz, Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz says that it's primarily the tough comparison against a 2007 that defied all expectations -- not an actual decline in the current console cycle -- that's responsible for the shift.

The analyst is far less optimistic about the course of the PlayStation 3's market share, however. "Our console estimates include a further share shift towards the Nintendo Wii and away from the Sony PlayStation 3," he says.

Specifically, Creutz projects a 2.25 million unit increase in Wii sales for 2009 and a 2 million increase in 2010, to 8 million and 6 million units for those respective years -- while his estimates for Sony's PS3 have decreased by 2.25 million units in the year ahead. The Xbox 360 would remain largely unaffected by the shift, he asserts.

"Following another year in which PS3 unit sales lagged behind the Wii and Xbox 360, it is now clear that Sony has failed to establish the PS3 as the console of choice among hardcore gamers this cycle," Creutz says.

The analyst now expects PlayStation 3, which sold 3.6 million units in 2008, to sell 4 million units in 2009, compared to his previous forecast of 6.25. Projections for 2010 of 4.5 million units suggest the analyst believes the PS3 could pick up by that time.

"Although there appears to be a reasonably robust slate of games for the PlayStation 3 this year, Sony continues to lack a clear 'must-own' title that will drive sales, while its platform continues to be the most expensive in the market in the midst of a consumer slowdown," the analyst says. "Meanwhile, highly publicized platform initiatives such as Home have failed to get off the ground."


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Comments


Josh Neff
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Nothing to see here... move along... move long

Shawn Yates
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If Sony Home was the enticement to bring up their market share they should fire whoever was in charge.

Brandon Crabtree
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So true about the platform initiatives. Many of us bought the system for one game, Socom: Confrontation which was Playstation exclusive and had a huge following on the PS2 system. Slant Six Games, who were developing the newest series installment for the PS3, totally masacred the game. On the day of the release the game seemed to be only 80% complete, lacking many features the packaging stated the game would include. Many problems such as lag, framerate issues, PS3 freezing, long load times, server stability issues, and game bugs were not addressed post beta prior to the official release. The recent disclosure that Slant Six has no immediate plans to provide DLC as they promised has sent many of us over the edge.


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