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Analysis: On The Wii And DS, Game Ratings Matter
by Matt Matthews
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April 20, 2009
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[As part of his March NPD analysis, Gamasutra's Matt Matthews looks at Wii and DS U.S. game sales, suggesting that -- 'long tail' or not -- there's "a limited audience" for Mature-rated titles on Nintendo's systems.]
Industry watchers know that first-month sales don't always determine a game's final sell-through. Both Madden NFL 08 and Wii Music serve as examples of this phenomenon on that platform.
The Wii version of Madden NFL 08 started 220,000 units behind the PlayStation 3 version during the launch month, but ended 2007 behind by only 160,000.
More recently Wii Music sold 65,000 units in the U.S. during its October 2008 launch, but leapt to 4.5 times that number during November.
Some Nintendo DS software follows a similar pattern. Denise Kaigler, Nintendo of America's vice president of corporate affairs, revealed to Kotaku on Friday that Call of Duty 4 for the Nintendo DS launched in November 2007 with only 36,000 units by had now reached LTD sales of 500,000.
Regardless, it is natural to be concerned when several high-profile Wii games fail to crack into that platform's monthly top 10 lists.
Looking over the past two months, Capcom's Dead Rising: Chop Till You Drop wasn't a top 10 game on the Wii in February 2009, while Sega's House of the Dead: Overkill and MadWorld fell short in February and sneaked in at #9 in March, respectively.
(House of the Dead: Overkill did 45,000 in February. According to figures given to Gamasutra, March sales for MadWorld totalled 66,000. Even the updated Mario tennis game, ported from the GameCube to work with the Wii motion controls, moved more units.)
On the Nintendo DS we can now add Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars to the list of big names that stumbled out the gate. Compared to analyst expectations and online buzz, the paltry 89,000 units sold in March was shocking.
While Mario Kart for the Wii continues to sell a couple hundred thousand month after month, new third-party Wii games – even well-known and heavily promoted ones – can't manage to break 75,000.
On the Nintendo DS we've seen several recent months of 100,000 units of Mario Kart DS, originally launched in November 2005, yet the biggest third-party game for the system doesn't break 90,000.
Of course, what unifies the third-party games mentioned here is the M (for Mature) rating assigned to them by the Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB). While Call of Duty 4 was a also rated Mature on other platforms, the Nintendo DS version cited by Nintendo for its enduring sales was rated T (for Teen).
And the games that populate the Nintendo DS and Wii top 10 lists month after month are typically rated E (for Everyone) for E10+ (for Everyone 10 and older).
While M-rated software can make a tremendous amount of money (the Halo trilogy, for example) the writing is on the wall right now for publishers and developers: there is a limited audience for these games on the Wii.
Publishers are likely to concentrate on genres and franchises that guarantee solid sales, and those will more than likely be E-rated. Electronic Arts appears to quietly be doing precisely this, as it managed to hit #8 on the Wii top 10 in February 2009 with its own spin of the Mario Kart genre, NASCAR Kart Racing.
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Nintendo made Mario Galaxy... but that's about it, and that title didn't exactly use the Wiimote to it's fullest potential.
The answer is one part Motion+ (the accessory that makes the wiimote work), and one part this strange notion that somehow it's completely natural that a videogame industry should first and foremost make entertainment for grown-up hardcore gamers. I'm not saying that there isn't such an audience, there is, and it's huge, but at its core a videogame console is made for kids. It's games, and if you honestly think that GTA with it's "slightly more grey" is an indication of what's to come, well... just look at the game as a whole, what is GTA? It's a sandbox game where you rob people, where you can drive over people, where you shoot people etc. etc.
(some smart guy can comment this and say "yeah, well look at Sopranos", yeah, so? What I'm saying is: the emphasize on a videogame will always be gameplay, as in action, move, run away, etc., and even if you have some NPC talking with you all the time you're doing this, emphasize is on perfoming actions, it's gameplay, so what you have is: Harry Potter, Indy, Star Wars, things like that, adventure games, it's not Sopranos, GTA's gameplay focuses on action, now... this doesn't mean story isn't important, story is important in Harry Potter as well, and you can have interesting characters, and you can have catharsis as well)
I think this e3 we will see some kind of adventure game for the Wii that uses the Motion+ to its fullest potential and that will redefine what constitutes a great adventure game in terms of gameplay. Most likely an extremely polished Zelda game with great swordfighting etc.
This is what people in the industry hopes; and it's very likely.
I've written before that I think Nintendo is behaving completely wrong, they shouldn't court already established developers and ask them to "port" PS3, 360 shooters over to the Wii, because ports wont sell on Wii. I haven't thought about it in terms of M-rated, T-rated games as the author of this article does, but I guess he nailed it. This doesn't mean a developer couldn't make a great M-rated game for Wii if the developer had this great idea, but it had to be made from the ground up for the Wii, it had to be extremely polished so that there wasn't a doubt it was using Wii graphics and not GameCube graphics, and the gameplay had to be really great (and sadly maybe that's just possible now, with the Motion+).
Having just bought Madworld myself I can say it's a great game but anyone thinking it would be a mega seller on any platform are kidding themself. Maybe it could have done a bit better on the 360 but not a whole lot. When was the last time a brawler with highly stylished graphics sold well on any title. It's a very niche title, and new ip no less; Sega knows that and they're not expecting it compete with Mario Kart and Halo.
I think the author makes the point that if say RE4 had been rated T instead of M it would have sold more on the Wii, since a lot of the times it's moms who buys games for their children, and even if the kids are begging for RE4 they wont get the game since it's rated M.
It's pretty self-explanatory, but he makes the point that this is the case when he mentions Call of duty 4 for DS. The fact that Kaigler mentions the game knowing that it got a T rating is of course a bit disturbing, because it's a bit like laying out smoke-screens for potential investors, and in the end it doesn't benefit Nintendo.
But sure, Nintendo might not grasp it themselves either, and that's of course just sad.
At the same time your points are fair (it's kinda fun, we're both from Sweden and writing in english), some M-rated games on Wii sells reasonably well, it's not a waste of money to "invest mature on Wii", at least not if the brand is popular.
Madworld? Look, if they had done Madworld for PS3, 360 with better graphics, a better, realistic physics system, it would probably have sold a lot more than what it has done up until now on Wii. You could instead ask yourself if Madworld was made for both PS2 and Wii (considering the graphics) but that they halted PS2 development when they realized the controls for Wii were just too much a part of the core game experience they were developing.
Sega says it wants to make Madworld a franchise if it sells reasonably well on the Wii. Will the Wii demographic be the end of Madworld? Or will we see Madworld 2 (Motion+) with Wii graphics and better physics? Madworld remade for 360, PS3?
It can be devastating when people make assumptions based on sales charts and sales patterns of games, sure, you can't analyze to death, but you have to look at Nintendo.
They're impossible to define. And it's a bit futile to assume A (M-rated wont ever sell on Wii) when all the cards haven't been laid down (how Motion+ will rejuvenate the capabilities of the Wii as a neat platform to develop for).
Also, why anyone would compare Mario Tennis re-release with a House of the Dead: Overkill and MadWorld is beyond me for two reasons:
1). It's a gaddamn Mario game!
2). E-rated games will always reach a bigger audience because everyone can walk into a store and purchase them. Many stores do actually follow the rules of not letting tweenies buy M-rated software.
Also, does it mater that Call of Duty 4 on DS is rated Teen? The arguement is that *hardcore* games don't sell, not that M-rated games don't sell. Hardcore games can be rated E for everyone - M for Mature.
Well there's other reasons for comparing Mario Tennis sales with those two titles as well. That game had extremely dated graphics (it was a port of a GC game), and the Wii controls weren't even well implemented. So you have a poor game that sells better than these two titles mentioned because it's Mario? Because it's E for everyone?
Obviously this only makes the point even more apparent; namely that the Wii is for kids/teens, and grown-ups who likes to exercise and try new experiences and not hardcore gamers, because honestly your point is mute due to the fact that hardcore gamers just wont buy Mario Tennis because they can't dig it, so if E is for everyone but only kids want the game, then clearly kids are the average gamer on the Wii console not grown-up hardcore gamers.
At the same time there probably is a large hardcore gamer following on Wii as well, it's just that they haven't really found that many games that interest them: a lot of them are young dads and moms to Wii owning kids I'd assume; some are hardcore gamers that own one of the other systems and who appreciate the gimmicky controls for what they are; some are poor hardcore gamers (but can't be that many considering 360 Arcades price-tag lately); some are nostalgic Nintendo fans; but one of the biggest "hardcore gamers group" on the Wii are the ones that don't realize that they could actually get engaged in an adventure game on a console (20-40 year olds... heck 80 year olds for that matter), the people who bought it because they liked playing "VR tennis".
"this leads to my comment for Bryans post" :P
@ Bryan Diggs
If you can deliver content and storyline in a way that not only hardcore gamers will go "ah, excellent gameplay, and great storyline: verdict 9.6 or 9.8 or 9.9" then the owners of Wii would buy those kind of games as well, sure, adventure games could sell on Wii, but you need a good structure for the storyline, it needs to be engaging, and the plot needs to be palpable.
Above all, the group that owns the majority of Wii's, kids, will love these kind of adventure games and buy them in truck loads.
And if there are no hardcore gamers on Wii then games like Zelda: Twilight Princess, Resident Evil 4, Metroid Prime 3, Call of Duty 3, Call of Duty: World at War, Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles, etc. wouldn't have sold a million. I anticipate you moving the goal posts and saying that Zelda and Metroid are first party... But it doesn't matter. A hardcore game is a hardcore game - whether Nintendo, Capcom, Konami, Microsoft, or Sony publishes it. It doesn't matter.
But it being Mario is somewhat beside the point, or rather--and what I mentioned--it points out that the Wii in fact have a much larger kids demography than hardcore gamer demography.
Mario sells because it's for kids. That's why it sells so much, it's not because the brand Mario is magical and transcends every kind of logical explanation for what sells and what doesn't, it's a brand that kids like because they like an italian plumber in a cute fantasy world, so you stick Mario and Wiimote tennis together and you sell truckloads to kids (kids not grown-ups).
Zelda TP (sure, hardcore adventure game, but GC graphics, and no good swordfighting, which will be remedied with next installment in the series, and that game will sell tons... if story is well implemented); RE4 (that's just an outstanding game as far as I can tell from videos, and with an updated wiimote control-scheme that works it is bound to sell, I haven't said that you can't find 2 million hardcore gamers owning a Wii); MP 3 (sure maybe it sold 1 million units or so, which is like what? less than 2 % of the Wii "install-base"); COD (same point made as with MP 3).
I mean, what you mention here is games that could be categorized as hardcore, but oddly you mix M-rated games, T-rated games and E-rated games in the same category, and justify that with the fact that the article above is about why hardcore games doesn't sell on the Wii, not M-rated games, although it is clearly stated in the beginning of the article:
[As part of his March NPD analysis, Gamasutra's Matt Matthews looks at Wii and DS U.S. game sales, suggesting that -- 'long tail' or not -- there's "a limited audience" for Mature-rated titles on Nintendo's systems.]
I mean, obviously you can sell "hardcore" adventure games on the Wii, but if the titles had a better narrative structure they would have sold tons more, that's just my opinion.
But clearly it is a lot more difficult to sell M-rated games for the Wii than the other two consoles, and that's because the majority of Wii owners are kids.
Here's the thing, RE4 sells 2 million units and that's a great figure considering it's an old game with a new controls scheme, and a lot of those buyers are most likely teenagers. Some are older hardcore gamers who loved RE4 so much that they are willing to buy this wiimote enhanced edition as well. Some are in their 30 and just bought the Wii for VR-tennis and then stumbles upon RE4, great.
So anyways, M-rated games sell on Wii, but not as good as on the other 2 consoles, and this is what the author of the article writes as well. I agree with him, BUT, I think there are other underlining factors as well in the works here (such as the need for a complete overhaul of the narrative structure of adventure-, horror-, action games; and the critical fact that a lot of these M-rated games haven't had nearly as much money injected in the development process as competing consoles M-rated games)
Simply put, there is no room for M rated games on the Nintendo platforms. They have a “family fun” image which will not be changed any time soon, if at all.
If I want a mature game, I will go with PS3 or the PSP. The DS and Wii are going to always remain “kid friendly” in my eyes, and thank god for that. My kids need a good console, and Nintendo provides.
What Nintendo needs is more text heavy RPG's, that make reading fund, and games that raise skills/response times; which are all perfect for a developing young mind.
1). Mario is not for kids. Mario is for EVERYONE.
2). Instead of debating me on the original issue, you're now moving the goalpost just like I predicted you would (i.e. "MP 3 (sure maybe it sold 1 million units or so, which is like what? less than 2 % of the Wii "install-base")" etc).
Try not to go on a tangent and stay focused next time.
3). Games having a better narrative structure would sell better? Guess that explains Wii Fit's sells!
4). You give lots of demographic informations with no links to back them up.
This may be true, though I question it. WiiFit is closing in on PS3 console sales, and I don't think there are many 7 and 11 year olds playing it ;).
The Wii is also catering to adults, a group of adults who isn't interested in M-rated games in the slightest. They apparently can purchase games in large quantities (WiiFit/Mario Kart/Wii itself). None of this is news. Nintendo purposely went after this audience after seeing the number of people interested in the same-old same-old decreasing in Japan.
I totally agree with the statement that M-rated games are a bad bet on the Wii. However, it isn't because there aren't adults playing. If you define adults as people who want to play M-rated games, you've misrepresented the majority of adults in the world.
Many adults don't play games at all because they aren't interested in what often gets termed "games for adults." Jenova Chen (flOw, Flower) has commented on this quite a bit recently, that these game experiences for adults tend to be limited to the primal, instead of creating the kind of experiences that most adults look for. [http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/the-beautiful-game]
All of these things are connected :). The Wii is not a good platform for M-rated games. There is going to be some sell-through, but many of us who are enjoying the Wii (loving it really) are loving it because of what it is offering that is different than other consoles. If we wanted to play M-rated stuff we'd get another console. Some M-rated games will sell ok on the Wii, just b/c the audience is so large, but I doubt that the average or even above-average M-rated game would sell well. Expecting otherwise shows a lack of understanding of the very happy, though much-maligned, Wii player and audience.
I think it's important to judge the sales based on more than the rating. There are very few M-rated games on the Wii so it's hard to see a general pattern. No M-rated game on the Wii has been as successful as Halo or Wii sport, but how many of whould really have a chance of that on any platform?
The Call of Duty series shows that it can be profitable to release a wii version of M-rated cross platform games. Personally I think one reason that they didn't do as well as on PS3 and 360 is that people who own multiple consoles see the wii version as a downsized verion, which in many cases is true. RE4 did extemly well for a port/remake. Umbrella Chronicles also did fantastic considering it's a lightgun spinoff, the RE-spinoffs on PS2 didn't do nearly as well. Manhunt 2, though it didn't sell very well, did about the same as on PS2.
Then you have the games that failed, like Dead Rising and Madworld. DR recieved very bad reviews and was the joke of the internet for months before it was released. Madworld is a very niche title that would have trouble to sell on any platform, but hopefully it will do better than God Hand and Okami.
The market for M-rated titles may be smaller on the Wii, but I don't think there is enough proof to say that with much certanty or speculate how much smaller it is. It certainly exists though. If the next Zelda for some reason would recieve an M-rating, or Resident Evil 6 would be Wii exclusive, I think they would both do quite well, but without big titles like that it's hard to say exactly how much is the Wii-demographics fault
1). In my opinion the reason why Mario Tennis Wii sells in those numbers is bc it resonates so well with kids. I mean sure, Mario Galaxy "resonates" with a lot of people, but at heart it is a franchise that tries resonate with kids. We are of different opinions here.
2). I was focused in the way I summarized that particular issue in mentioning I thought you were wrong in addressing hardcore games as a whole instead of not just M-rated hardcore titles.
3). Wii Fit doesn't try to be a storydriven game, Wii Fit is a phenomenon that has to do with physical exercise while playing a videogame. Wii Fit doesn't belong in this thread.
4). You are right. I think that most people on message boards (it's not articles we are writing here, it's messages) just post things assuming the people reading and commenting knows what they are writing about / referring to, but sure, call me lazy, but since you seem to be the guy who likes to keep things in check, why don't you check up the information I'm clearly just dishing out in a hurry, or are you implying I'm actually lying? I hope not. Let's move on.
To be fair, burden of proof is generally on the person making claims but not citing them, not on the person questioning the validity of those claims. It's pretty standard when facts are involved.
It's important to note that M ratings are not bad, and may even be a selling point in many cases. Personally, I would be skeptical of a T or E rated survival horror game, the same way I am skeptical of a PG-13 horror movie. Knowing your target audience is key, and in the case of Nintendo - the bulk of their audience are kids and families.
"4). You give lots of demographic informations with no links to back them up."
This is what Ken Masters tell me, and okey, what am I not backing up with links? That the Wii demographic constitutes of more kids and people not as accustomed to videogames than the demographics of the PS3, 360?
I mean, had I made statements that really needed links to back up what I was writing sure, then Ken had a point, but I don't think I wrote anything that needed any real links.
Please, let's just move on. If I get any more comments on this topic it will just become really silly, but hey, maybe I have made some remark that really needed some good links to back them up.
Okey, I'm sorry Bertil, it seems I'm out of the loop here. It seems that it's only me who feels that the 360, PS3 has a larger "grown-up hardcore gamer demographic" than the Wii.
Or, I'm not going to say I'm sorry, I'm not, I'm just of that opinion, and I felt it was relatively accepted out there that the Wii was a console that resonated better with kids and people not as accustomed to consoles than what PS3, 360 did. You seem to partly agree with me on this "fact" or assumption.
Tom Newman seems to be of this opinion as well, judging by his latest post here, and in general I think this is peoples assumption. I'm basing this assumption on adverts, on the actual titles that are being sold for the respective consoles, on Nintendos core line-up of titles, etc. and what I've picked up from journalists etc. when they write pieces on gamingsites, and above all on the fact that the Wii is a piece of machine that is small, white, non-obtrusive to the eye, a lot more tone downed than the other two consoles, a console that has been advertising its controllers "gimmicky" attributes, and lastly the fact that the top executives of Nintendo themselves mentioned they were after a blue-ocean of possible console owners with the Wii (and in parts with the DS, which has titles such as Brain Age etc.) so yeah, I don't have any real links that I can share with you, but I have these facts that I've gathered just like most people out there, that make me certain that the Wii's demographic differs completely from the other two consoles demographic. I think this is partly why you Bertil also agree upon the assumption that there definitely is such a thing as the Wii demographic, which differs from the other two consoles.
It's just a question then maybe on how much you think this demographic differs.
Now Nintendo aren't stupid, they wont say that it differs a lot, because then they wouldn't get investors investing in the console, and thus they'd loose out on a lot of great third party developed titles that hardcore gamers--a segment of the population that Nintendo desperately tried to court--"desperately" needs. They don't desperately need them, but they want every kind of possible buyer :) So in that basic, capitalistic way of thinking and surviving I guess they're after every developer out there, but it would have done them better if they had made some more guidelines for what kind of games they really wanted, and what kind of strategy most likely would work on the Wii (not ports etc., and try to get developers to understand that creativity, a great control-scheme using the wiimote etc. works wonders)
It's not maybe written in the sand what Nintendo should do as a company, but they're clearly not doing enough right now, but hopefully things have changed lately so that we wont see e3 2008 repeating itself in the slightest.
It feels like all of this is obvious, but maybe I'm wrong, it feels like I've repeated myself a lot as well, either way, what was good with the above article was when the author mentioned Call of Duty DS, and that that title actually was rated T for teen which clearly must be something that makes it an easier sell than GTA.
It will be interesting to see whether GTA DS will surpass Call of Duty DS in sales, I mean logic says that it should considering the brand and how well developed it seems to be, at the same time you have the other fact which is that COD DS managed to get a T-rating which is really good considering that a lot of the people owning DS are kids, teenagers.
jikes, this was a long post :P
I'm sure the both the PS3 and 360 has a bigger percentage of adult traditional gamers, but the Wii still has a massive install base and at least a part of them are interested in traditional games, and old enough to buy M-rated games, so I think it may be a mistake to ignore them.
What bugs me is that a lot of people look at sales of Madworld and a few other games and use them as an indicator for M-rated games in general, but they don't really put them into any context other than the M-rating.
Why is it OK for a similar game to perform poorly on another system like the PS2, but not OK when they perform better on the Wii, just because they didn't meet some analyst's "guesses"?
Here's an example of the above. With a bit of digging, it's not hard to see that Mad World is basically the same type of game as "God Hand." This game was made by 3 of the key members from Platinum Games while working under Capcom. This game on the PS2 in its entire life has sold about the same as MadWorld did in its first month based on the numbers provided in this article. When I take this into consideration, all of these recent "jump-the-gun" articles about Nintendo no longer hold any merit. They tend to show a bias.
Also, if anyone has followed Dead Rising: Wii, they'll know why it sold poorly on this platform. It's not a lack of audience, it's a clear lack of effort that was put into this game by Capcom. This is a game that cut every corner possible to get it out the door quickly and on the cheap. To make matters worse, this game was marketed as being for "casual" gamers. This game only goes to show that many of us are keen to poor quality cash-ins and will not buy them, no matter the publisher, let alone the rating for that matter. If this game had been given what it needed to be done right on the Wii, I would have bought it day one, but as is, I consider it an insult.
I also agree with Bertil's point about these games all being shoved only into a mature category, when that's not always the best fit, let alone the only fit.
Anyways, as for the PS3 and 360 having a more grown up demographic, that's subjective, as from my perspective its' the younger guys that flocked to those consoles. My friends range from the late twenties into their fifties and the majority all own Wiis, but it's not our primary gaming platform, that belongs to the PC.
1). It met Capcoms expectations (http://www.capcom-unity.com/ask_capcom/go/thread/view/7371/14072575/Okami_Wii_Mo
derately_successful_or_did_it_have_very_good_success)
2). It sold on par with the PS2 version with a far smaller userbase
People also like to point out that Manhunt 2 "bombed" on Wii but ignore that the game didn't do any better on the PS2 (because it wouldn't look good - they want to Wii to look bad, not the PS2).
But speaking of Okami... it was developed by Clover. Clover has a reputation for making incredibly good games that don't sell nearly as well as they deserve. Okami, along with Viewtiful Joe and God Hand, were really good games. Clover = Platinum Games
That being what it is... why in the hell is a Clover game suddenly the ANOINTED game that will determine the fate of all M-rated games on the Wii? Why is a Clover game expected to be a blockbuster when their previous games failed to do so on a system with a much bigger userbase (the PS2)? It just doesn't make sense.
The industry just looks for reasons to pounce on the Wii. It seems they hate the system because it's so successful even without their support and their bitterness knows no end.
Just my take.
We will ignore the fact that the publishers said that they are not worried about the sales of Mad World or GTA:CW ( this is in the links on your site for crying out loud).
We ignore how people said the same thing about Boom Blox and every other 3rd party Wii game that showed any promise after its first month of sales to only see the same sell very well as time went on.
We will ignore that No More Heroes 2 is coming out. Lets ignore that Dead Rising Wii looked like it sucked and the fanbase was never hyped for it at all.
Why not mention the current numbers for COD 5 for the Wii?
Lets keep those goalposts moving guys. It has gone from the Wii cannot sell 3rd party games to the Wii cannot sell M rated games. RE4 prove both wrong, but lets not count that game. Lets count the bad Dead Rising game that no one was excited for, because that does not go against the point we want to make.
Has anyone taken a look at the Gamecube's library lately? Look at video of StarFox Adventures, Rogue Leader, Metal Arms, Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes, Splinter Cell, Rebel Strike....these games showed great potential of the hardware. One has to ask, "why can't 3rd party developers match, not to mention surpass, the quality that the Gamecube is capable of on a Wii that has twice the processing power, twice the graphics capabilities, twice the RAM and better tools?"
Is it really a case of lazy, shoddy development by a 3rd party community that wants to act like spoiled children? Are some 3rd party developers expecting us as professionals/gamers to truly believe that their shovelware, half hearted, lazy attempts on Wii should sale better despite Nintendo's A+ builds but won't because the core audience isn't there?
How about this...take the time to build a game specifically for Wii with serious R & D behind it. No forced waggle, no 360 or PS3 ports...no PS2 or psp ports. Just make a great game that truly shows what the Wii can do. If Gamecube can get a game that looks as good and runs equally good as Rogue Leader and it was a launch title, why can't we get the same development from 3rd parties on the more powerful Wii?
We talked about this on the games-and-industry podcast Visiting The Village (www.visitingthevillage.com) this week.