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OTX: MadWorld Demonstrates Tenuous Link Between Web Hype And Sales
by Chris Remo
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April 29, 2009
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There has been a great deal of speculation about the underwhelming retail performance of PlatinumGames' MadWorld, but now research firm OTX's business intelligence tool GamePlan Insights shows detailed data illustrating the often-thin correlation between online acclaim and real-world retail success, particularly on the Wii platform.
As demonstrated by OTX Gaming Insights director Nick Williams at the Los Angeles Game Conference, with slides made available to Gamasutra, the game's strong awareness among the hardcore online gaming community bore little relationship with its weak awareness among the wider gaming public.
For example, from January to March, the tracking metrics used by major consumer gaming site IGN.com pegged the bloody brawler as the Wii game with the highest level of unique interest, and by extension purchase intent.
(Sega, MadWorld's publisher, did make the top ten with Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games. And there is generally encouraging news for third parties: Only one Nintendo-published title made the cut, Wii Sports Resort at number one.)
But the GamePlan data from the same period, polling gamers across different demographics, placed MadWorld at a dismal number 41. The company says it surveys 1,000 gamers on a weekly basis, tracking 400 games at any given time.
According to OTX's research, the ten Wii games with the highest purchase intent were exclusively music games, casual sports games, and puzzle games, with the only exception being LucasArts' Star Wars: The Clone Wars -- Lightsaber Duels.
MadWorld also received extremely high review scores from a number of major gaming publications, and averaged in the 80s on both Metacritic and GameRankings -- frequently used as internal metrics by publishers.
The game ended up selling only 66,000 copies in the United States, according to retail tracking firm NPD; OTX determined that just under eight percent of Wii owners had heard of the game.
Interestingly, MadWorld's preorder intent -- that is, the percentage of those already interested in the game who have committed to putting down money in advance -- was 12.2 percent, considerably higher than the top ten Wii games with much higher overall awareness.
That behavior is in line with that of Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 gamers, who also tend to have relatively high preorder intent, possibly pointing to a mismatch between the game's potential audience and its platform.
Williams concludes that the Wii user base has expanded to the point that it is not particularly represented by the audience of major gaming sites, which tend to be geared towards the more dedicated audience. But in broader terms, he noted that the example points to a problem with that kind of group-specific research. "Web analytics tools are only as accurate as the editorial content and user base," he said.
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Speaking for myself. I know that I no longer buy anything based on the hype it gets from sites such as eurogamer or IGN. I simply don't believe that their reviewers are honest or in some cases (GTA IV) have even played the game at all.
Now, the way I see it is that hardcore gamers all have the game on their list, but they'd rather be playing their 360s and PS3s in HD, and therefore MadWorld gets trumped by other games on those 2 platforms. As for the "casual" Wii crowd, they simply don't know about this game, and it was never intended for them anyways.
So what does this all mean? If neither casual nor hardcore efforts from 3rd parties can make it on the Wii, it means Nintendo has painted themselves into a corner AGAIN, and they're gonna end up playing by themselves AGAIN. It's becoming increasingly clear that the installed user base of Wiis shouldn't be considered the same way as other systems: people buy Wiis for Wii Sports, and Wii Fit, play 2-3 months, then put it in the closet until the next party; this is getting clearer and clearer. The literal NOSEDIVE of Wii sales in Japan is starting to show this, and we can expect the same to happen elsewhere soon enough. Is it Nintendo's fault? I don't know. They do have a reputation that precedes them, and that has it's good and bad sides.
In any case, let's not write MadWorld off just yet (and Sega DID say that sales of HOTD Overkill were good), but if the current situation is any indication, publishers may soon choose to give up altogether. (which may not be a bad thing in the end).
So let me get this straight:
It’s acceptable in a game like The Conduit to blow out the brains of countless enemies using firearms but Mad World is “disturbing” for having a gore factor that is obviously bombastic and housed in an art style that by design is incredibly unrealistic?
And while we’re on the subject of The Conduit, do we really need yet another FPS that, at best, looks like a first generation XBOX1 game with waggle control?
MadWorld is easily one of the best games on the Wii from both a game play and technical perspective and it’s a damn shame that even the hardcore crowd is largely ignoring it. The game really is no more violent than titles like God of War, Conan, Fallout 3, or even various FPS currently on the market, yet you refer to it as a “gory mess” which, with all due respect, comes off as a puerile and dismissive deconstruction of a quality endeavor.
The reason MadWorld didn’t sell is because the Wii demographic doesn’t purchase software based on quality but rather by brand recognition. It’s a dumping ground and will continue to be so because Nintendo is making money hand over fist selling to these uninformed consumers. Hopefully, the real lesson here is to put “real” games on the PS3, XB360 or the PC and leave the shovelware and interactive fitness games to the soccer moms and the elderly. I know that sounds harsh but when I see good games like Deadly Creatures and House of the Dead: Overkill languishing at retail I become aggravated because I think these developers and publishers deserve better.
I think hardcore games have an audience on Wii which is growing slowly but steadily.
We will have to see how long can MadWorld sell to see if it's really a failure.
Bill,
The Conduit is going for a T rating and will not be showing the gory bits like Madworld does. I am looking forward to the Conduit as I think the Wii after the PC is the best platform for FPS games and I think it will knock the pants off of any FPS on the PS3 or 360 from a gameplay perspective.
I also love that you are one of those people that think that just because a game doesn't come in 1080p HD, it is crap. I laugh at all the people and their goldfish like memories. "What? We had fun with games before this generation? You make no sense?"
Yannick,
Has it ever occurred to you that Wii sales in Japan have taken a dive because demand has peaked and is leveling off like any console does. The Wii is now at a stable conjunction of supply and demand even here in the US I have been able to walk into a store for the past 3 weeks and find a bunch of Wiis ready to be bought.
As for the demand peaking.... 2.5 years after release, really ?? Seems a bit premature to me. Wouldn't that be indicative of something? I'd keep my negative prognosis (especially if you compare it to DS or PS2 sales stats over the same period, therefore there's obviously room for growth). And since Iwata said he personally didn't believe a price cut would boost sales (and it's not like they couldn't afford it), there's obviously more than meets the eye there.
That's fine of you feel the Wii is the best platform for FPS (save PC) but personally, I find that notion laughable. The Wiimote really hasn't added or improved input in games, at least in my opinion, and I certainly think claiming that Conduit is going to "knock the pants off of any FPS on the PS3 or 360 from a game play perspective" is borderline asinine. There are many variables that impact the quality of a FPS and while Conduit looks solid it's hardly spectacular or showing us anything that hasn't been done a hundred times before in similar games.
Also, I have no idea where you got the notion that I only endorse HD gaming when I've never stated anything of the kind. I own a Wii so obviously I can accept sub-HD graphics and truth be told, MadWorld is one of the best looking games visually I have played this generation.
That said, I find your automatic assault of graphical fidelity a meritless position considering that this medium is largely rooted in visual stimulus. Every since the Wii launched, there has been this segment of the gaming populace that keeps insisting graphics are not important even though the history of this industry has always been propelled by graphical advancement. Truth be told, the issue isn't even about graphics and shiny HD output but rather what more powerful processing achieves. So many of the games on the PS3/XB360 simply cannot be done on the Wii because Nintendo opted to release a console technically inferior to the original XBOX. Go play that newest Red Faction demo, which really is an amazing engine capable of insane levels of environmental desstruction, and then tell me superior tech doesn't work in favor of the HD consoles not only visually but in terms of game play. I’m not asserting that processing power is the only factor but to dismiss it outright, as your comment implies, seems incredibly short-sighted.
What you need to understand is that I own all three consoles and the reason I consistently slam the Wii is because it is the worst system in terms of software, period. I don't need HD graphics but I do need solid game play and something more than an interactive fitness video (I own a gym membership thank you very much) or Gamecube titles re-released with waggle controls. When games like MadWorld, Deadly Creatures, and House of the Dead tank on the Wii, I think that sends a clear message that there is very little market share on the console for quality games that don't have Mario on the front cover.
When I said that demand has peaked, I mean that the vast majority of those who wanted one right away have now got one. Now it is time for those who have waited to get one. Demand has leveled off to a normal rate of demand. It will see some increase as new games come out that people want (ie Monster Hunter 3) but between such events, it will sell at a rate similar to the PS3 and 360 do between hot releases.
Bill,
Didn't mean to get your goat about HD. It just seemed that you were attacking the Conduit based solely on graphics. The way your said it "looks like a first generation XBOX1 game" came across that way.
Personally, I will be getting the Conduit as I am not a huge FPS fan, nor do I own a PS3 or 360. I do like the occasional FPS but not normally off of the PC. I really like the Wii remote and how it so easily simulates a mouse on a console. I have played FPS games on both the PS3 and 360 and don't do nearly as well as I do on a PC. But I guess if someone plays FPS games on a regular basis, I can see why the Conduit might not be appealing.
As for my "automatic assault of graphical fidelity", I never said that visual stimulus was unnecessary in gaming. I happen to like visually pleasing games as well. I just don't think that HD graphics are important. I have seen some pretty ugly games on all platforms as well as some really nice looking ones. But for the most part, I am not impressed with the addition of HD.
AS for the Wii being the "worst system in terms of software, period", that is something that you will have to take up with 3rd party devs. They are the ones responsible for this mess. Had they not started out with nothing but shovelware, these new gamers who bought the Wii might have been more willing to buy more games. If they bought more games, we would get more great games for it. This isn't some chicken and egg situation, this is the 3rd party devs problem.
I look at it this way: Many folks like to pretend there is a science to creating entertainment that is both creative and financially successful. Sometimes I wish that were true. It would be nice to have a blueprint. Wouldn't it be neat to have a color-by-numbers kit that would ensure fame, fortune, and critical acclaim. Making a living through entertainment is tricky sometimes. It's a common conundrum that everyone in entertainment grapples with. Hollywood, Broadway, musicians, and writers all want to make a living by creating something worth talking about.
Which brings me back to my original point: thanks for talking about MadWorld.
I'll agree that the Wiimote hasn't really lived up to its potential in a lot of genres. Shooters are not one of them. Pointing at a target just feels so much better than anything dual analog can do. FPS's on Wii do not have "waggle", and your earlier dismissal of Conduit as having waggle controls doesn't make sense. All the reports I've read (and I've followed the game for a while) say the controls are instinctive, and that waggle is no where to be found. Your dismissal sounds more like system bashing than anything related to the game.
And as for software library's, that's a matter of opinion. Personally, I haven't found anything that would allow me to justify buying a 360 or PS3, but I have a dozen titles for my Wii, none of which I regret. For me, the Wii has the strongest library, but again, to me. Please refrain from mixing opinions and facts.
No harm no foul on the graphics issue. I do happen to think HD is a nice addition but conversely I think PS3/XB360 games look great in SD as well. I can also empathize with your frustration over the emphasis on HD because it seems that sometimes, developers act as if HD makes even ugly games look good, which of course is not the case.
However, I do strongly disagree with you regarding the lack of quality Wii software being the fault of third party developers. I think Nintendo has done a lousy job catering to third parties, due in part to the incredibly underwhelming specs of the system and coupled with Nintendo's own arrogant and relentless self-promotion.
Both Sony and Microsoft seem much more proactive in recruiting and promoting outside talent while by contrast all Nintendo does is whine about their lack of support, yet they never address their own deficiencies when it comes to accommodating developers. When games like MadWorld sell 60,000 units, what does Nintendo expect these developers/publishers to do? Nintendo has created a beast that caters overwhelmingly to a demographic that doesn't play quality games. Why pump resources into a quality title when consumers buy crap like Carnival Games and WiiPlay in droves?
The truth is that Nintendo has created a console that many developers simply don't want to make games for. From a hardware perspective it is ancient, underpowered and lacks many of the essential tools to make something that looks even as good as a top tier XBOX 1 game. The Wii also lacks any real online functionality save for a very limited and clunky interface. Lastly, while I think the Wimote has some genuinely unique applications, basing the entire console around such a gimmicky controller was a bad move because having to design games around the default Wimote/nunchuck configuration often impedes the quality of an endeavor. So many of the third party games I have played would probably have played even better with a standard controller, making the Wii controls seem overtly forced and cumbersome. Even some of Nintendo's own efforts, like Smash Bros. Brawl, actually play better using the Classic controller or the Gamecube pad.
The bottom line is that not every game needs waggle, yet developers feel forced to implement it, often diluting the quality of their own games. A recent example would be the latest Tenchu on the Wii, which would have been a solid entry in the series, had the Wii interface not turned the streamlined controls into something cumbersome, clunky and unresponsive.
Nintendo has never had a particularly good relationship with third parties and that disrespect has been reciprocated by the lackluster response to the Wii. Even now, with the Wii the dominant console of this generation, most third parties are dumping ports and lame spinoffs on the Wii because they obviously don't take the console seriously.
Hell, I own a Wii and I hardly take it seriously.
By the way, I really enjoyed reading your most recent blog about XMA and developers looking to publish their indie games. It was an interesting read.
I agree with you there. There are some games that don't need it and some that have it that really shouldn't. But I think that line of thought comes from this being a new method of input. It would be nice if more games offered different control schemes.
Personally, I think the pointer interface of the Wii remote is the biggest draw to the system. It brings that mouse like interface to a console. The motion controls are great if the developer knows what they are doing with it and what they are doing is intuitive to the player.
I'll have to get back to you on 3rd party support.
Gamasutra is turning into just another game site with fanboys arguing over nothing.
This site was doing so well too for so long, but I guess all good things come to an end eventually.
Please do not post a comment unless you really have something to ADD to the discussion. I know that I am breaking my own request by posting this but I felt it was needed. There are some good posts but lets try to keep Gamasutra above the rest with quality, decent comments that foster discussion and not just start arguments. Thanks :)
Maybe there's a less-than-tenuous link between lack of marketing and poor sales?