Electronic Arts' upcoming Sims 3
could sell over 4 million units in 2009, says Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey -- although he expects that a demographic transition toward newer entertainment forms like Nintendo's Wii and DS might weigh on the title.
sold an estimated 3.5 units in calendar 2004, so the analyst expects the anticipated sequel to outdo its predecessor. EA also detailed today
the game's digital distribution-heavy, points-based model for further monetization, although Hickey doesn't project how much Sims 3
can expect to earn incrementally from DLC and expansions.
He also expects that piracy is a potential risk for Sims 3
sales -- "Spore sales
were likely dramatically impacted by piracy," Hickey says.
Hickey also expects the upcoming Harry Potter
release to sell about 3.2 million units sold-in, based on EA's own prior projection of $120 million in sales.
"We are less excited about the Company’s Dragon Age release, new IP with unproven market demand," the analyst says. "We approximate the game could sell-in 1.3 million units. We are mystified at how management could characterize the game as being 'too high' of a quality."