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Opinion: The Motion Controller War - A Next-Gen Console War By Any Other Name...
by Kris Graft
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October 16, 2009
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[Microsoft and Sony are readying their answers to the Wii in Project Natal and the "wand." With this midstream change in strategy, are we essentially about to enter a new console generation? Gamasutra's Kris Graft investigates...]
We are on the verge of console wars phase 2.0. I'm referring specifically to how the big three console makers -- Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo -- are preparing for a three-console motion-sensing controller war. And strangely enough, all three solutions are completely legit. Who could have predicted that five years ago?
Of course, it was Nintendo that fired the shot heard 'round the world. Remember when Nintendo unveiled the "Revolution" back in 2005? Coming off of the missteps the company took with the N64 and GameCube, it was common opinion that the company had officially lost its mind -- psychosis was seemingly confirmed when Nintendo named it "Wii."
But over 50 million Wiis sold later, Nintendo's proclamation that it would create disruptive technology didn't seem like empty words, but a real concept engineered and marketed pretty brilliantly. Now, Microsoft and Sony are readying to launch their answer to the mass market question that Nintendo addressed three years ago with the Wii.
With Microsoft's Project Natal 3D camera/multi-array microphone and Sony's motion control wand/camera solution, industry watchers expect new input devices to help extend the life of the current console generation well beyond the typical five-year lifecycle. High-definition consoles are dropping in price, and once Project Natal and Sony's motion controller arrive, we could essentially have three "Wiis" on the market.
Are Sony and Microsoft wise to implement such a major strategy shift at this point in time? And why are they even trying such a paradigm shift? The answers depend on a few important unknowns -- but let's go through what Nintendo's competitors bring to the table, before passing judgment.
Microsoft's Project Natal
Microsoft is investing a lot of time, money, and resources into Project Natal. The company has said that it plans on essentially re-launching the Xbox 360 when Project Natal is ready to hit market, as if to say, "Forget what you knew, this is what we're about now." Microsoft is really going for a fundamental change of strategy in terms of marketing and game development as it aggressively targets a wide scope of gamers and non-gamers.
Two major unknown factors for Project Natal's success are launch games that are easy, fun, and show off the new hardware to positive effect (Wii Sports put into practice just how important this is), and the specifics of the device's marketing strategy (Will games be packed in? Is there going to be a revised Xbox 360 to launch alongside Natal?).
If either of these aspects are poorly executed, it'll be exceedingly difficult to overcome the public mindset that the Wii is the motion controlled gaming machine for the masses. Not only that, but Microsoft will also have to convince potential customers that they need a 3D camera for their Xbox 360, and talking the average Walmart shopper into that proposition is a tough task.
A third major unknown factor is price, which is still up in the air. A Variety quote from Microsoft Entertainment and Devices Division honcho Robbie Bach made me a bit nervous: "Relative to Natal, we’ll see how the pricing cost works out. But people should except that it will go through the usual price curve."
When you start talking about "price curves" for add-ons, I have to wonder just how much this thing is going to cost? The quote could mean nothing at all -- all electronics follow some kind of price curve. But again, when you're up against Nintendo, whose Wii and its motion-sensing controllers have appeared in everything from Tropic Thunder to nursing homes, you've got a pretty big wall to climb, so you better price this controller for the masses at a mass market price.
(Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter recently told IndustryGamers that he believes Project Natal will cost just $50, and Sony's wand to be no more than $100.)
That said, the fact that both the Wii and Project Natal are capable of sensing motion is pretty much where the similarities end, as far as the two technologies go. Project Natal works really, really well for certain types of games, especially thanks to the depth sensing capabilities of the infrared camera in Natal, and major publishers who've signed on at this state are convinced that Microsoft can make something happen.
Sony's Motion Controller
Sony has said that it plans on releasing its motion controller sometime in the spring of next year. We still know relatively little about it -- like Project Natal, we don't even have an official name for the device. At this point, Sony doesn't appear to be planning an all-out re-defining of its console, but Sony Computer Entertainment chief Kaz Hirai has said that he intends the motion controller to be a "second standard controller" for PS3.
Already, Sony has said certain games, such as LittleBigPlanet, will get software updates that will add motion controller capabilities, something that Project Natal will likely not offer, due to the difficulty of making such changes, Microsoft has said. Also, Capcom said that it will release a version of Resident Evil 5 that will support Sony's wand controller.
Sony is walking a careful line, trying to offer a solution to make games more accessible, while not alienating PlayStation's large base of core gamers. The company has been clear about the inclusion of the hardcore PlayStation gamer in its "magic wand" plans. It's a focused and rather safe strategy that will potentially turn the PS3 into a high-def Wii with additional camera-related effects possible - although the games will need both a PlayStation Eye camera and the motion controller, making its setup more complex than some of the other solutions.
Like Microsoft, pricing, marketing, and software will be crucial components for Sony's motion controller to be successful. Are we going to see a PS3 motion control console bundle? Will games be packed in with the device? What kind of third-party games will we see? It looks like Microsoft and Sony both announced this hardware relatively early compared to game development, in order to start the hype early.
Now What?
Nintendo Wii's sales numbers are declining, and now there's the concern that the company might not be able to hit its Wii unit sales target for this fiscal year. Sony and Microsoft looked to the Wii at the height of the hype and have developed their direct answers to the Wii, but with Wii unit sales in decline here in the U.S. and Japan, should Microsoft and Sony worry that people are now "over" motion control?
Nah. People aren't over motion control any more than they are over traditional controllers. They're all just input devices, and what matters is implementation. The landscape of the games industry is littered with peripherals that failed because they didn't have good software to go with them, or because they were too pricey, and many of those failures were nowhere near as capable and flexible as Project Natal and Sony's motion controller appear to be. And both of the companies seem to be extremely committed to these new devices.
Nintendo has no real reason to change its strategy to counteract competitors' moves. It's still the hardware sales leader, outselling Xbox 360 and PS3 regularly (although the PS3 outsold the Wii in Japan in September thanks to Sony's price cuts). Nintendo has already taken a crucial step in keeping the Wii competitive by lowering its price $50 to $199.
If all goes well, Microsoft and Sony will initiate more growth in the industry, and bring new gamers into the fold with lower-priced consoles and more accessible input methods. All three console makers offer different motion control-based strategies, and don't necessarily overlap in what they will ultimately offer consumers.
But the impact that Sony's and Microsoft's controller have on the industry might be limited because the fact remains that they are both afterthought add-ons. They're supplemental controllers that were not at the core of the company's console strategy from the get-go. This contrasts against the Wii remote, which is a central part of the Wii console experience. If Sony and Microsoft really want their controllers to set some kind of standard, they're going to have make like Nintendo and take some real risks that will have them rise to heaven or sink to hell, as Hiroshi Yamauchi might put it.
We'll probably see some fantastic interactive experiences coming from both the Sony motion controller and Project Natal. But just how necessary is it to introduce these new control methods mid-cycle? Why are Sony and Microsoft doing it?
Analyst Doug Creutz with Cowen and Company recently told us that he thought Project Natal is "a technological solution in search of a problem." Although Creutz in particular found Sony's solution more practical, the same argument could be said about both Sony and Microsoft's new devices.
So the question is "why now?" Microsoft says it's introducing Natal to "break down barriers" of gaming. Sony says the motion controller is meant to "add to the PS3's interactive capabilities." This is certainly the most proactive that we've seen Microsoft and Sony at this point in a console cycle. But after these motion controller launches, is it really the same console cycle?
The answer is that for Sony and Microsoft, motion controllers are their next-gen consoles. And it's a damn sight easier than launching Xbox 720 or PS4. They can debut these peripherals without needing to engineer completely new boxes for consumers, potentially bundle them over time, and they have a much better chance at getting exclusive games, thanks to the specificity of the hardware (something that's happened a lot for the Wii). Thus, both hardware manufacturers and publishers like EA see these controllers sparking new interest in Xbox 360 and PS3, which will delay the next dreaded console transition for another few years.
Are these new devices expensive to develop and support? Sure. But it's still cheaper than launching a whole new system, and that's why Natal vs. PS3 Motion Controller vs. Wii MotionPlus (another incremental hardware upgrade we haven't mentioned!) is really the next-gen console war by another name. Now it's just a matter of sitting back and watching the arms flail from the comfort of my couch. My limbs are getting tired just thinking about it.
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That is the key. Sony's attempt may go the way EyeToy went, and while Natal looks futuristic, people would not use it to select a game just to pick the controller later: they would just use the controller for that.
No. Only Microsoft has hinted at packaging their motion control in with the hardware. That means 2 "Wiis" on the market and one with a already dead peripheral that isn't worth programming for. And still, the X360 still won't have a reasonable install base for some time for the device. I think it is already over and we will only have one "Wii" until the next iteration of consoles. Unless they can find a 'system seller' to sell this tech that everyone must own...
"should Microsoft and Sony worry that people are now "over" motion control?"
I think you had this right, then rebuffed yourself. I actually think 'motion control' is on a decline. The Wii got a lot of hype from the wii sports, get up and move marketing... but I still think its biggest draw and selling point wasn't motion control, but that is completely off topic
WHAT? 1960?
Yes! There was a controller alike the Wii-remote in 1960.
Also in the 80s we had those gun controllers...
Also to complete, I think that Natal is just a cool stuff to show, but I would hate use it, to me it is not intuitive at all, and seemly it will have serious problems with interference (what happen if you are fat? think? lack an arm? extremely black person? extremely white person? using bright clothes? using no closhes? using dark clothes? a cat jumps on your head? the room is too dark? the room is too bright? there are a mirror behind you in the room?)
The PS3 wand in my view is the best strategy, it is just a aditional controller, not the focus, and being NOT the focus is its strength (we will not see the invasion of crappy games with crazy control schemes... like the spam of DS games that you control the character with the pen, sometimes being rather crappy the control SCRIBBLENAUTS I AM LOOKING TO YOU). Also the idea behind PS3 wand (use the eyetoy to track coloured balls) is really old and proven, not hard at all to develop (there are even open-source projects that do the same using yellow kitchen gloves and webcams...)
The Wii-like approach (Natal and PS3 Wii-like controller) is not the next-gen war, simply because it is not the future of gaming; well... not directly.
We didn't really see that in the past, but it's starting to take place. In a few years, there will be 2 real (forget about casual and hardcore, it's a myth) types of gamers: the one sitting in his couch and the once physically way more involved in a game. Wii-like stuff isn't the future, just part of it.
In other terms, traditional controllers (like the 360 controller) are there to stay, but we are actually starting to have the available technology to finally build "Virtual Rooms". Think of X-men, or the virtual helmet, etc... it's all about that and it's coming. Natal is an interesting technology, but as far as I can see, unless it also offers additional suits, guns, etc, the vision of the camera is pretty restricted if I just put my hands behind me.
Actually, Nintendo may hold the highest sales, but a lot of Wii gamers aren't shaping a unified community like the one we can find on the 360 and a lot of Wii owners sold back their Wii to get a 360 or a PS3, because Nintendo is so concentrated ton making "Games for Everyone" that in the end.. they are not pleasing anyone. The Wii was one wave on 15 years, that's it. There was a need for 50 years old gamers and more or short games requiring more physical activities... that's it.
It's not a revolution. Microsoft and Sony both recognize that emerging market that was for years surrounding the Arcades, now on the Wii and maybe later in Virtual Rooms replacing the actual "Paintball" activity - is a way to see it. I doubt that the next-Gen war is about "wii-like" games, because there is over 40 million of gamers who just want to relax and play on their couch, maybe they worked hard all day long (maybe involving hard physical activities too) or maybe just lazy.
I don't dismiss motion or any other type of extra-control, I'm just saying I haven't seen it implemented all that well. There is no denying it's potential - Wii Boxing with a controller would be dull, but with motion it is an incredible experience (before you get bored of it). As of now though, motion-control is mostly just an oversold gimmick, and the fact that the controller-using Super Smash Bros Brawl is probably the funnest game on the Wii is Exhibit A.
And Joshua's point needed to be said. Couldn't the decline in Wii sales just be part of a global economic trend unconnected to the system's appeal?
I do think that the type of games developed have just glossed the surface of what is possible with that type of controller, and what is lacking is the tech and/or kahuna's to immerse it into a typical AAA shooter or action title ( no offense mario, and i di think there is a place for arcade style games:-). For this to happen the all players must be on the same method of control, or at least the motion based products should provide some sort of advantage to the user. (psst - this will propagate the market with or without the camera or wand bundled). What would help this? A commitment for more developer support and a super strong commitment from the makers that the motion controllers are a big key in their plans, I believe these two things would be first steps in the right direction.
Why do I think that motion controllers are going to be a natural for the control of games. just think about the loop that the current model has, you have screen ->eye ->controller/twitch -> Screen (repeat to infinity). With the motion controlled camera based methods, you have screen ->eye ->natural motion -> Screen. Once integrated I think it will feel more natural and the gamer will be actuating the game rather than reacting to it. For example I cried the day that the sys-admin walked into my cube and replaced my Alias 6 with Maya 1.0... why? because I was extremely familiar with the menus and motions, which made me extremely productive, I had greased those brain paths, and now I had to learn new ones. - FB
If Nintendo offered the Wii-mote with a CPU upgrade for the Gamecube, would it be such a success it is today, I doubt that, in the same way that the Wii-fit boards will have a limited number of games developed for them. If I were Sony or MS I would hold off development for these new controls until their next generation, or do what Nintendo did, and provide a slight upgrade to their existing systems and make the new controls the focus of the system. This would reduce the amount of work existing developers have with existing hardware, provide simple backward compatibility and also make the focus of these systems on the new controls rather than all these extra graphic number crunching processors.
Good ideas come up all the time, but it is already very difficult to promote this idea to consumers let alone developers when the idea is not in the spot-light but actually is just another "add-on", which only a limited "subset" of the existing audience currently use. A recent example of this you could say is the "Eyetoy" which is or is not a simplified version of "Natal". But either way it wasn't the hit success it could have been as Sony could not promote it fully, as the other PS adverts were more hardcore gamepad variety which diluted the Eyetoy adverts. Rockband and Guitar Hero kind of make you think the opposite could work, but they had the killer app which was karaoke with instruments, and karaoke/air guitar is already popular, so unless they find the "killer app" it is likely to fail to reach its peak.
Yes, the possibilities for camera as game controller are truly endless.... in a shooter you may zoom in when you close one eye, or dodge shots by moving your head; a puzzle game may be playable in 3 dimensions if you can move objects with your hands. Just like eyesight is the most important of human senses, a camera could become the most important input device for a computer.
I think you point about eyesight being your primary sense, with eye tracking tech you could establish the blind spots of your opponents. Besides interaction with your surrounding environment, you could also have pop up displays, a la star trek, Dmy this would be a way cool interface for your Polynomial game. - FB
Take for example: Letting your movements controls the flow of music. And not in an orchestra-conductor form, but closer to that of a DJ; Instead of switchboards, you have full freedom of movement.
Take for example: A "platformer" where you reach out to grab platforms for movement. Then readjust the formula for freeform flight (using the analogy because it's hard to describe otherwise).
We've barely touched the full capabilities of motion controls, so I wouldn't write it off just yet.
RT
www.anonymous.ua.tc
Typing "Comparison of console controllers" in wikipedia and click through some of them, You'll be suprised to find things that you thought were new ideas that have been introduced before and failed.. sure they are going to work better today.. but everything is old news.
Just for the record, Mattel was the one that manufactured the Power Glove, but you are still correct about Nintendo creating an arcade-style controller (NES Advantage) and you are still right about some of the controller ideas being nothing new. The idea behind the Wii Remote is nothing new, but it is still innovative and it is a technology that nobody should take for granted.
My memory was different. I recall long lineups to try the Wii remote when Revolution was first unveiled at E3 2005 and business analysts were extremely positive about Nintendo's new console. I don't recall anyone in the industry saying that Nintendo had "lost its mind," although some core gamers may have thought it. However, as we all now know, core gamers weren't the market Nintendo was after.
RE: "Analyst Doug Creutz with Cowen and Company recently told us that he thought Project Natal is a technological solution in search of a problem."
I think the problems are clear enough and Microsoft knows them. The company does not just want a share of the core gamer market, it wants to dominate the living room. The Netflix partnership is a perfect example of Microsoft's efforts to reach beyond gaming. However, the controller remains a significant barrier to many people and Natal will go much further than the Wii remote in addressing the complexity that has turned so many people off of game consoles.