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Analyst: Review Scores Least Important Factor For Game Purchases
by Leigh Alexander
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November 25, 2009
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Many game publishers consider score aggregators like Metacritic and GameRankings to be a major indicator of their games' quality, frequently citing score data in dialog with their investors to demonstrate how the outlook for their portfolio is improving.
But game reviews and scores are far from a major factor in consumer purchases of games, finds a new fall-season survey by Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz. In fact, among eight different factors that influence a consumer's decision whether or not to buy a particular title, aggregator scores were judged the least important out of eight.
A more important influence on game purchase decisions is word of mouth, says Creutz. "We believe that while Metacritic scores may be correlated to game quality and word of mouth, and thus somewhat predictive of title performance, they are unlikely in and of themselves to drive or undermine the success of a game," he explains.
"We note this, in part, because of persistent rumors that some game developers have been jawboning game reviewers into giving their games higher critical review scores," adds the analyst. "We believe the publishers are better served by spending their time on the development process than by 'grade-grubbing' after the fact."
Genre is the most important factor influencing purchase decisions, says the survey -- gamers unsurprisingly gravitate toward their preferred genres. The second largest factor is whether players enjoyed an earlier version of the game: "This demonstrates the value of strong game franchises," says Creutz.
Price is the third-largest factor -- and average software prices currently trend $10 over the previous generation's, contributing to increasing marketshare for used titles. Word of mouth is fourth-most important.
Consumers cited advertising visuals as the next biggest factor, or "how the game looks when I see it in a store, online, or in advertising." Publisher reputation and Metacritic scores were considered largely unimportant factors by contrast.
And consumers are buying more games than ever, Creutz says -- over 40 percent of gamer households own more than 40 titles. 42 percent own more than one current-generation console: 31.4 percent own two, and 10.7 percent of all gamer homes have an Xbox 360, a PlayStation 3, and a Wii.
Yesterday, we reported Creutz's finding that among users planning to buy a new console this holiday, PlayStation 3, at last competitively priced, may be poised to gain significant market share, with 21 percent of those who don't own one planning to buy one this season. The analyst also believes Wii hardware and software is continuing to decline.
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Of course reviews should be completely biased, but that's difficult. Which is why you should read as much as you can, demo the games, talk to friends who have the game, etc.
"The second largest factor is whether players enjoyed an earlier version of the game: "This demonstrates the value of strong game franchises"
Modern Warfare 2 anyone? LOL
I think you're right about people looking to verify their opinions on games. I took a minute to think, and I can remember me doing this a few times. I wonder what that says about the role of game reviews. Maybe it's time the review process be revamped.
Andrew,
I think that happens sometimes, but think about what Chris is saying. If you were super, super excited about a game for months, and then it got bad review scores, would you immediately start calling it trash? I'm pretty sure I would still want to check it out for myself.
Come to think of it though, I was excited for Brutal Legend for a long time, but after reading the reviews I decided it wasn't worth my money and haven't played it. I guess it can go either way.
I definitely agree with the importance of word of mouth, though I'm including reading about it on forums, too, not just literal word of mouth. If intelligent people are making positive comments about a game en masse, that says a lot.
That factor doesn't motivate me as much with games, but I definitely have seen many movies and tv shows I otherwise wouldn't because there was a personal reason to do so.
BTW one person's word of mouth is another person's review. To me it really comes down to trusting your source which occurs over time. It one reason why I don't trust reviews from large ad supported gaming news networks but rather trust a small select group of gamers who've been blogging for years. I'd say 80% of my choice of purchase is based upon this small trusted source of people and the other 20% is based upon selective feedback from forums.
One final point. When times are good and cash is flowing, gamers are willing to take more risks. When times are tough and cash is in short supply, you can be damn sure they'll try to gather as much information as they can about the game before purchasing it, so as not to get burned (as many of them have probably already been burned before).
I suggest that the industry expand on this research.
Bob Rice
four bars intertainment
It's mentioned as the 4th most important factor.
You brought up Brutal Legend, and that's a good example, for reasons other than #6. Look at the #1 reason for people buying games, then ask yourself what genre was Brutal Legend? I beat it (and loved it) and I STILL don't know the answer to that question.
It is an Adventure game with a lot of Action, Real Time Strategy, RPG-like plot/levelling scheme, and a significant racing/driving influence throughout the game. Until the game was released, we were under the impression it was more like an Action/Adventure. Since the public had no clue about the genre, they were less tempted to buy it, and then those that did realized the game was far from what they had expected genre-wise, thus they were disappointed.
In addition...
There's also the well-defined genre problem that many games have run into thus GIVING them bad reviews. Take Tabula Rasa for instance. Was it a shooter, or an MMO? Well, it was a bit of both. Except RPG fans hated how their outposts were being taken over by NPCs and the shooter people hated the grinding, thus giving fans of both genres a mediocre experience.
Lastly,
I believe this servey left out some really important options: Multiplayer Potential, Demos.
Also, I see genre as more of a filter than a specific buying decision. Most consumers filter all the choices by their own preferences (genre, # players, etc.) before actually deciding to make a purchase. Price could arguably be another filter and not really a buying decision. Perhaps filter vs. buying factor is just a semantics discussion to some but for me there is a clear distinction.
$0.02
I've seen great games get the same 9.0 rating that was given to completely average, formulaic games and I've seen youngsters review games they haven't even played just to share their biased opinions to anyone who will listen.
It's true in today's heavily FPS market that all other genres pique the interest of those who enjoy said games. We're lucky that their are many good titles being made and fewer duds then in the past there is still a need to have some sort of review content to clarify a game's merits, even if jaded and biased.
Twitter and Facebook can be used as "word of mouth" tools and so I feel that official connectivity between Steam/PSN/XBL and those social networking tools should be a priority for Valve/Sony/MS. I understand that to some extent there is a relationship (both PSN and XBL will/had recent updates that integrated facebook), what I'm talking about is, for example, an option to auto-tweet what game you are playing once you decide to jump on your PC/console to play a game.
Nollind Wachell said, "BTW one person's word of mouth is another person's review."
Never thought about it that way, you are absolutely right. What this could mean then, is that we don't take stock in "critical" reviews and put more stock in the reviews of our friends.
An recent interesting case-in-point that relates to Cruetz's hypothesis: Forza Motorsport 3. It's a game that has received unanimous praise from non-racing gamers to hardcore PC sim racers. It's aggregate score is extremely high, and compares admirably against MS's other first party efforts in Halo and Gears of War...games that sell millions upon release. However FM3 only sold 175K during October in North America when it was released in the last week of October. The genre of "simulation racer" rarely sells well. PC sims like Live for Speed, Richard Burns Rally, rFactor, and iRacing (subscription based) aren't top selling games either. PS3 racing sim "Supercar Challenge" may not hit Stateside because it is such a niche genre. Yes, Gran Turismo sells well but it does so for other reasons, which I won't go into now.
The reason why I find it interesting is because one factor that could have helped sales, the "word of mouth factor", was sabotaged by the game's publisher, MS. The game boasts a picture export feature that allows users to upload photos taken in-game onto the web. It could have turned out to be an incredible form of grassroots advertising for the game, with game owners sharing near photo-realistic pictures with their friends. Instead, the feature was marred by horrible compression on the pictures, done to save bandwidth costs. Ironically hardcore fans of the game were ashamed to share pictures of the game as a result. In my mind this will go down in history as a marketing blunder on the part of MS.
"I don't believe most people who buy games do read much about games"
Refer to the 2006 Magid study for the MI6 conference. I believe the figure was around 25% of buyers use reviews to decide whether to purchase products. Personal networks (i.e., friends and family) are, of course, vital, but so are official product websites, especially to influencers.
http://www.mi6conference.com/Magid_MI6.pdf
Also, my interpretation of the results:
http://www.raphkoster.com/2006/07/04/improving-game-marketing/
"the number of times I've actually bought a game based on reviews is quite low."
Unfortunately, those of us who are as close to the business as we are generally cannot, or should not, use our own personal decision-making processes to predict consumer behavior.
Word of mouth, baby!!
Javier: My apologies, I must be blind because I scanned this article like three or four times and didn't see "word of mouth" until I did a page search with my browser. No idea why I couldn't see it mentioned in the third paragraph. Maybe the big M logo kept pulling my eye away from it. :)
Of course, I say that with a sardonic smile on my face, since any publisher "relying" on Metacritic scores for payment has probably set impossible milestones that guarantee a mediocre game.
But this does help explain their attention to the reviewers.
Most reviews these days are just pure fodder for criticism. And when you throw in the fact that games are catering more and more to the console crowd, writing reviews for games designed for that crowd is like writing a limerick for ADHD challenged folks and then asking them to make sense of it. In other words, it is pointless. And it is that very notion that sees otherwise high end games either not being reviewed or being completely trashed because the "reviewers" simply can't take the time to learn, play or get into the game. And when they can't "get" a game, you end up with a shoddy review and a bad score to boot.
I wrote an extensive article about this farce in a recent blog.
http://www.3000ad.com/aaw/2009/09/developer-blog-17/