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It's just
a matter of time before mobile gaming blows up, says Mike Yuen, director
of Qualcomm's gaming group. Wireless gaming revenue in the US is predicted
to become a $1.7 billion market in 2008, from $160 million in 2003. What
will be the tipping point to push mobile games over into the mainstream?
Yuen submits that cross-platform design will play a major part in this
initiative.
As for just
what Yuen means when he says 'tipping point' - he's referring to a pioneer
that opens the floodgates for others, opening up the industry to a point
where it can be self-sustaining. He cites Pac-Man as having done
this for arcades - the great success of the title, combined with the strength
of the branding, character recognition, the first cut-scenes and wide-spread
(not especially violent) appeal, all served to make consumers take games
seriously as an entertainment medium.
Super
Mario Bros. did this for the home console market, essentially remaking
the home system industry after Atari's fall from public grace, and Doom
gave greater legitimacy to PCs as gaming platforms, also popularizing
multiplayer network gaming. Mobile gaming, according to Mike, is the next
frontier of interactive electronic gaming revenue.
The reasons
for getting into the mobile field are numerous, most notably the potential
for subscription-based billing, and the ability to penetrate emerging
markets such as India and China with minimal piracy risk, and higher possibility
of return on investment.
But of course,
it's not as easy as all that. Hardware, software and network providers
all need to coordinate to make this sort of vision a reality. Though phones
will soon have the capacity to push near PS2-level graphics, no true cross-platform
design exists.
Yuen's idea
is that wireless could be a bridge between platforms, and the connectivity
and mobility allows for a logical extension of the platform game worlds.
If a developer allows a persistent persona (i.e. carrying character data
from the platform to the phone), this would work especially well in character-building
games, such as MMOs.
As for difficulties
in the mobile design, Yuen mentions that developers should consider leveraging
the uniqueness of phone numbers, through creating unique character avatars,
generate interest through trailers and advertising, creating loyalty programs
ala frequent flyer miles (re-subscription benefits, et cetera), increasing
word of mouth, and serializing content.
Yuen also
submitted some ideas about how one might actually implement this sort
of cross-platform play. On the mobile side, suggestions included unlockable
wallpapers, ringtones and screensavers. On the PC side, exclusive unlockable
levels, costumes or avatars could potentially help spread word of mouth.
This sort of integration, Yuen maintains, should serve to strengthen the
overall brand.
According
to Yuen, in order for something like this to come to pass, there needs
to be a Paul Revere of the mobile industry, someone who knows the right
people and has the right branding to make cross-platform integration an
appealing prospect for consumers. Some might argue that Sony's PSP/PS2
integration, or Nintendo's GBA/GC connectivity might have already paved
the way for ideas such as these, but clearly the concept has yet to truly
enter the mobile space in a significant way.
Yuen summed
up by urging developers to use the installed base of mobile users to their
advantage. It's going to be a big market, especially for the first group
that really opens it up. Like MMOs, the potential for monthly subscription
makes a good business model, and in theory, this integration could breed
further gaming innovation as well.
The power
of the handsets is almost there, and the networks are nearing readiness
for this sort of integration as well. All that's necessary is for developers
to make the content to drive the industry into the future.
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