[Billy Pidgeon, IDC]

On Microsoft: With the first Xbox, Microsoft experienced the upside and downside of appealing to a core gamer market. The core bought into Halo and built up the installed base, which peaked with Halo 2. Microsoft didn't expect a long tail for the first Xbox.

While a good number continued to play Halo 2 online, core gamers' interest wandered toward the next cycle and to the PC. Microsoft designed Xbox 360 for a wider appeal, and the games for the Xbox Live Arcade are more casual in genre. Halo 3 is coming for the core gamers, but the Xbox 360 and its software library should seek mainstream and non-gamers, including families, to build and sustain a long end-cycle.

On Sony: Sony has some problems with the PS3, not least of which is that the PS2 remains a strong hardware and software seller. The PS2's continued dominance combined with the PS3's high price and limited library doesn't give enthusiast gamers sufficient incentive to upgrade. Sony needs to build anticipation for upcoming first and third party games, and the company must differentiate the online experience from Xbox Live. Sony should also build the PS3's appeal to the mainstream sooner rather than later.

On sticking with the hardcore crowd first: The success that Nintendo is enjoying with the Wii and the DS is both a catalyst and an indicator. Nintendo correctly observed that the hardcore gamer market was not growing quickly enough to sustain a growing installed base for new consoles.

The Wii is disrupting the console market by appealing to the mass market at launch rather than in mid-to-late cycle. Nintendo's image as a relatively wholesome publisher makes the Wii ideal for families. Many lapsed gamers have fond memories of Nintendo and are old enough to have young children.

Another factor widening the console market beyond the core demographic is the continued success of the PS2. Guitar Hero is perhaps the best example of a game that non-gamers can enjoy, but will still be popular with the enthusiast and core gamer. The Wii, the DS and the PS2 are changing the dynamics of the industry, with the mass market becoming a primary driver rather than an end-cycle afterthought.

The core audience is still important and always will be. But I'd be very surprised if the next consoles from Microsoft and Sony are as targeted at the core gamer as the Xbox 360 and PS3 were. Some worry that focusing on the mass market will result in fewer hardcore games. I don't believe that will be the case, but fewer mediocre games, hardcore or not, would be a good thing. Interactive entertainment should be accessible by the mainstream, not just by those with higher gaming skill.

For the industry to maintain a healthy growth rate with sufficient installed bases of consoles and handhelds, marketers can no longer ignore demographics outside the core. I think that's good news for the industry. Girls, boys, men and women of all ages play games. It's time for the industry to show them how to play video games together.

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