[Billy Pidgeon, IDC]

On whether publishers underestimated the Wii and DS: Some publishers underestimated the retail performance of the Sony PS2 as well. During holiday 2006, I think the console vendors, including Nintendo, were surprised by hardware and software sales on Wii, DS and PS2 and by games such as Guitar Hero. Guitar Hero in particular is an indicator that the market is expanding.

Publishers such as Electronic Arts and Vivendi Universal allocating development resources to Xbox 360 and PS3 early on was not necessarily a mistake. Development for those platforms will take more time to create high-production value game experiences for hardcore gamers. The problem is that the installed bases of Xbox 360 and PS3 have not grown to reach publishers' and retailers' expectations. I think the Xbox 360 and PS3 will see more hardware uptake going into 2008.

On which publishers have fared best and worst: I think Disney is a big winner. Their audience and Nintendo's overlap. Most Japanese-based companies, with the exception of Square Enix, have done well on DS and Wii; Atlus, Capcom, Konami and Sega have benefited. Ubisoft bet on the Nintendo platforms early on, and they've done well.

THQ was a big player on Nintendo in the past, but the company has been moving toward Xbox 360 and PS3 perhaps too aggressively lately. EA and other companies who tend to port versions across platforms without sufficient differentiation are losing out. Quick ports to Wii suffer graphically, and the game play is not optimized for the Wii remote.

On advice to publishers looking to capitalize on the Wii and DS: The downside is coming in the form of a glut of games for the Wii and DS. Nintendo will try to maintain quality, but I worry that we'll see far too many crappy games for the Wii and DS. I'd like to see publishers take risks on the DS and Wii, as they can afford to try new things at lower costs. However, publishers tend to follow rather than innovate.

Publishers should take the time to create fun social experiences for a wider demographic and that take advantage of Nintendo's unique control interfaces. I think games with intuitive and alternative interfaces and a social aspect are not a fad, but will continue to impact the industry in this console cycle.

Publishers should not publish the same game across platforms, but should optimize versions for the hardware specs and demographic of the platform. Publishers ought to make unusual and unique content for a range of demographics, including the hardcore. A bigger market is waiting for publishers to make games that will entertain and amaze all sectors -- hardcore, mainstream, kids, tweens, everybody.

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