Analysis of sub-genres
Let's dig deeper to further explore opportunities, for example, the gambling & casino genre. Our goal is to uncover opportunities where we believe we can compete and be successful. We now need to examine the underlying composition of our targeted genre to learn what types of games are most popular, where our competition is concentrated, and what game types are under-represented on the Facebook platform.
The gambling & casino genre is comprised of multiple sub-genres, including popular categories such as slots, casino, poker and bingo.
The category 'Other' includes hybrid game styles that draw inspiration from multiple gambling categories such as Slingo (Slots and Bingo).
We can see that poker is the largest sub-genre within gambling-themed games overall. With this understanding, we could look toward popular forms of gaming that might be currently under-represented on Facebook.
One example in the gambling & casino genre could be social betting apps. While gambling games like sports-betting are immensely popular in offline channels and traditional online gambling channels, this category has yet to truly take off on Facebook.
Data suggests the secret sauce for social betting apps has not yet been successfully cracked on Facebook. Cracking the code for how to make a successful social betting app could pay big dividends.
We know it's massively popular elsewhere in the world, as the global online interactive betting market was valued at 10.67 billion euros in 2011. This figure is over twice that of interactive casino according to H2 Gambling Capital.
Market Concentration Ratios
At dystillr.com we look at competition within specific genres to gain insight into which areas of the Facebook ecosystem are most saturated and, more importantly, where exploitable opportunities may exist.
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One analysis technique we can use to assess the competitive landscape is an assessment of market concentration levels. Market concentration reflects the degree of saturation within a specific market. The chart below provides an analysis of the market concentration for six popular game genres as an example, with higher points corresponding to more saturated markets. Simulation is the most saturated game genre, with a "very high" market concentration level. At the other end of the spectrum, adventure and strategy has a "low" market concentration level. The puzzle genre ranks fourth, with a "moderate" rating.
A genre with a lower market concentration ratio paired with high average user engagement, promising growth rates and/or demonstrated popularity off of Facebook could present a strong early indicator for an opportunity. Recognizing the emerging trend that social gamers and gambling shared a similar DNA paid off in a big way for companies like DoubleDown Interactive.
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There is still great room for growth on FB, primarily because the quality of what is on FB now is still so low that existing products are vulnerable to competition from a good design. That growth is not likely to come from small fish, however, as replicating existing products and business models on FB will not gather the attention of consumers. Making a unique and high quality offering will not be cheap, though can still be done for a fraction of what a typical "AAA" product can cost to bring to market. Some big fish, such as EA, have attempted to enter the space with bigger budgets, but have failed due to employing derivative game designs and outdated business models.
Yes you can always succeed by making a great product, but IMO the foundation of Facebook (and mobile) with discoverability is so flawed that the market is closing, not opening, to developers to succeed with their creative game ideas.
Isn't there room for well-crafted experiences which make their money from selling actual content instead of pay-to-win or pay-to-remove-frustration - "games on Facebook" instead of "Facebook games"? Design optimized for non-whales? Short games which people come back to replay and recommend to friends because they liked it so much, instead of forced "retention"?
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This article can't really convince me there is a place for niche games on facebook.