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Jesse Divnich, The simExchange:
Opportunities for other emerging niche genres: Only
a handful of titles in the niche categories reach the status that the Guitar
Hero series has. Boogie, Amplitude, MTV Music Generator,
Karaoke Revolution and SingStar are just a few of the many that
have failed in the music niche.
To the publishers' benefit, the consumer has
been more open to these niche genres [in] this generation over last -- the
Nintendo DS being the best example with Cooking Mama, Brain Age
and My Word Coach.
For emerging genres, we will likely see an influx of
"board game" type titles over the next few years. I expect Scene
It? on the Xbox 360 to have moderate success. Study tools and educational
titles [are] a definite, as those have already had great success overseas.
What will be the next Guitar Hero-style
phenomenon: Marketing also plays a significant role. After all, the only
difference between Amplitude and Guitar Hero is a peripheral
attachment and a decent marketing budget -- both titles were made by Harmonix!
Any future successful niche title will need some strong marketing support,
which can only come from one of the bigger publishers. This would explain why
MTV partnered with Electronic Arts on Rock Band, which is just more
proof that MTV has lost its touch with the American youth when it turns to a
video game company to try to convince teenagers what to buy.
Harmonix's independent follow-up to Guitar Hero, Rock Band.
For the peripheral genre, it is harder to predict the next
winner as the consumer acts with more caution as the entry barrier is elevated
due to the higher price. This explains why it took a few Guitar Hero
[sequels], and a few add-ons, before it achieved widespread success.
Personally, I think it would be foolish for anyone to try to predict the next
big peripheral series. It really is a crapshoot. But rest assured: The
knock-offs will be prevalent -- Flute Hero?
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The ability to use game data as the basis for saved films (cf. Halo 3) will also open up all sorts of opportunities for digital puppetry and machinima production.