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 Michael
Pachter, Wedbush
Morgan Securities
I
don't know that most households care about the "Nintendo Seal of
Quality." And I don't think that there will be many third-party
Wii exclusives that will be console drivers in 2008.
I
think Nintendo will continue to thrive in 2008. The Wii supply
situation should improve by 3-to-4 million [consoles], and at least
1.5 million of those will flow to the U.S. So we should see a
year-over-year increase in sales as Wiis show up at Target and
Wal-Mart.
The
console has a price advantage over the Xbox 360 and PS3 that can be
maintained if Nintendo chooses to un-bundle Wii Sports from
the console.
I think that if Nintendo were to do so and cut the price
to $199, it would still sell a piece of Nintendo software to 80% of
new Wii purchasers, and would end up effectively lowering revenues
per console by only around $10. At that price point, the Wii should
be strong again in 2009.
The
long-term health of the Wii should not be impacted until Wii
households decide to buy one of the other consoles as a second
console. Because of the high-definition video features offered by the
Xbox 360 and PS3, those consoles are more likely to end up in the
living room, which could relegate the Wii to the playroom. If the Wii
is not at the center of the home entertainment system, software sales
could suffer as a result.
This will likely take a couple of years to
play out, and will ultimately depend upon pricing of the other two
consoles.
I don't perceive a big threat [to the Wii] until late 2008,
with the impact felt in late 2009. By that time -- as I've said
before, Nintendo will likely combat the perception of "HD video
inferiority" by introducing a "Wii-HD" model.
This
will be fun to watch.
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Printer-Friendly Version
Core games outsell casual games on the Wii. The good sales of Carnival games could be attributed to the fact that it was one of the few Wii third party games that had TV ads. Also if you visit some game forums you will see that some core gamers like the game.
The Wii like the DS will need a good mix of casual and core games.If people keep going on and on about how casual the Wii is and ignore good selling core games then most Wii owners will not be happy. Even casual gamers want something more than mini games.
The Wii is a platform for casual gamers and the games that are coming out reflect that.
The Wii is also a platform for hardcore gamers, but I would venture that less than 40% of Wii owners got the console for Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros and Metroid. Oh, and Zelda.
The Wii is also a platform for ports and quick cash-in (on the trend) titles. This just adds to the casual title library, but this is where the shovelware comes in.
I'm a little bit more upbeat about the future quality of Wii games because of the supposed specialised teams being formed at Ubisoft and EA, as well as the increased priority the console has been given by Activision Blizzard (when it was just Activision) and THQ. Square Enix also factors into this, despite the negativity everyone has been spreading regarding 3rd party sales.
They know they have to find a way to monetise the fastest and best selling console on the market right now and if making better games is the way to do it, then, by Jove, I think they've got it.
If the Wii wants to really innovate, it will take the casual 'easy to learn' game genre, the hardcore scene, buy them a nice bottle of wine, turn on some Barry White, and get them to make to make a brand new genre that combines both worlds.
I'm personally holding out for a casual game that manages to slip an epic plot in there somehow.
I do consider myself a member of that group. As a teenager, I used to play a ton of very hardcore games (I beat Xenogears). But now, I'd rather play games as a leisure activity like TV or movies - not as a dedicated hobby that envelopes most of my free time. Thus, I find myself losing patience with most hardcore games these days. I thought I would love BioShock, but I didn't bother finishing it due to its inconsistent and rather spread out level of quality, and I now regret the purchase. As for "casual" games, well, they just don't appeal to me much.
A recent game that I think captures the "ex-core" essence is Portal. It's hardcore in that most non-gamers probably wouldn't be able to make heads or tails of it (it certainly requires some precision FPS and spatial thinking skills), yet it's casual in its length and difficulty. Those were the best 3 hours of gaming I can recall recently, and I came out of it wishing more games were like Portal.
Shorter and denser, please!
Anyway, the idea that both types of games can't exist on Wii is ridiculous. The problem is 3rd parties will develop quick cash ins, ports or just terrible games. Or worse, a developer will develop a good game but dedicate zero marketing dollars to it and then complain that core titles can't sell on Wii. Good business sense dictates if I take the time to develop a title on any platform that's adheres to industry standards of quality (consistent framerate, no clipping, clean design etc) AND market the game, I'll have a better chance of selling it.
Let's look at Soul Caliber Legends. Terrible game. With Soul Caliber 2 performing very well on Gamecube, one would imagine that a Soul Caliber fighting game would sell well on Wii considering it currently has no other fighting games. ANY Soul Caliber would have been a better choice than Legends. At the very least, as annoying as ports may be, a port or update of Soul Caliber 2 or 3 would have been better received than Legends by the core audience, provided it was at least marginally improved over the original game. Also, it would not have taken a huge investment to bring the game to Wii, increasing the chances of profit. I'd rather have an original SC but if companies are going to go port happy or just update old games on Wii, make better choices, use common sense and stop using lowest common denominator development practices. If developers would do this more often, a "Seal of Approval" wouldn't be necessary.
The issue here is making games available to the larger audience as well, and the compromises so far may not be the right ones to make. To make the interface truly intuitive. The less time you need to learn the interface, the more patience I am sure a gamer, casual or not, has with the game. Hard-Core gamers don't need flight simulator controls. Aeroplane enthusiasts might, but not a gamer, unless that depth of immersion adds to the fun in the game. Most hardcore pc gamers know wasd+mouse works fine, and in any shooter would probably try using that first. In a wii shooter the controls are pretty self-explanatory once you've got the nunchuk plugged in and are told to point at the screen with the wiimote. Like mr. Jeffries says, make the lovechild of casual and hardcore. 'Easy to learn' in my book means intuitive. All you need for the wii, mr. Jeffries, is a well written and designed game with adequately responsive controls, and you've got it. I don't know if Metroid (Wii) appeals to the casual gamers, but it seems to be a good example of how it could be done.
I remember reading an article about EA regretting not heading puting the Wii on their radar in early 2006 like they should of...
They said they regretted it and plan on making up for the lost ground; when I don't know.
Nintendo can't be blamed for the flunking of 3rd party titles, and I hope the trend doesn't lead them back into a "damned if you damned if you don't" wall. We all agree that 3rd party titles are 3rd rate titles on the Wii in majority.
In conclusion, we all know that there are many more things to a successful game outside of development, let's just agree that the console has nothing to do with that equation. (what can I say I loved pong) As for the fad or trend or surge or bubble or whatever, it will pop - when? I don't know. But for now know that Nintendo brand is iron clad, heeding it's luster you know it's sheer steel - it won't break easily. (Hint for sony: Insert Software here.)