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While at first blush it appears registered users
are keeping pace with the unique visitor growth, a closer look at the unique visitors to new registered users rate shows that the overall quality of unique visitors in terms of conversion
to registered users is starting to slip, down by 13% in 2 months.
Marketing costs
per new registered user are also climbing, but take a look at marketing costs per new paying user -- the falling cost indicates that while the quality of unique visitors in
terms of creating registered users is declining, the conversion rate from these reduced registered users to paying users is actually higher.
Management is moving the marketing costs
in the right direction and, assuming pricing has stayed constant, likely
operating the game well, as they must be increasing the conversion rate
of paying users by attracting a better new registered user, keeping their existing registered users happy,
or combination of both.
| Download
Client MMORPG |
January |
February |
March |
| Unique Visitors
for the month |
322,423 |
341,732 |
329,215 |
| Marketing cost
per UV |
$0.16 |
$0.15 |
$0.14 |
| New Registered
Users |
30,317 |
33,644 |
29,459 |
| Total RUs |
86,635 |
120,279 |
414,738 |
| UVs to New RUs
Rate |
9.40% |
9.85% |
8.95% |
| Marketing cost
per new RU |
$1.70 |
$1.52 |
$1.56 |
| New Paying Users |
8441 |
7464 |
6311 |
| Total PUs |
21,914 |
29,378 |
35,689 |
| Marketing costs
per new PU |
$6.11 |
$6.87 |
$7.30 |
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Looking at the free-to-play, microtransaction-supported
MMORPG downloaded PC client game above, we see unique visitors moving up and down
each month while marketing cost per unique visitor is trending down almost 12.5%
in two months. However, we see New registered users have only dipped 2.8% over the
same period. So right away we can see that management has either found
a cheaper source of ads to buy, free referrals are improving, or a combination
of both.
However, we see that the unique visitors to new registered users rate has declined by 4.8% in two months indicating that the unique visitors
-- while cheaper -- are of lower quality in terms of registered user conversion.
Worse, we see the lower marketing cost per unique visitors has caused paying user conversion
to plummet 25.3% in two months which has pushed marketing costs per
new paying user up by 19.5%.
Unless there is a significant uptick in revenue
per paying user, management is clearly starting to struggle with their
marketing plan, or there is an underlying quality problem with the game
that is slowing the uptake of new registered users and paying users. Management would need
to return to buying more expensive unique visitors to see if the registered users and paying users' conversion
rate move back up before we could tell for certain.
What about metrics that should
not be used to compare games?
There are lots. Average revenue per
user (ARPU) jumps out as one of the worst offenders. As every game has
different play styles, targets different demographics, has different
operating costs, and can be in different stages of content released
to gamers, comparing ARPU of one game to another can be very misleading.
Average revenue per user is very useful to trend within the context of a single game as
it measures how well paying users are responding to new content (or
lack thereof) and marketing efforts directed at Paying Users. ARPU is
also a strong indicator of when a game has peaked with its current marketing
efforts and game content.
Another set of metrics that come
to mind are those concerned with the average time of a user play session
and the average number of sessions a user plays over a given time period
such as on a monthly basis. These metrics can
point to how engaging a game is to play, and there is clearly a correlation
between time spent playing and the revenue from the user.
However, trying
to compare these metrics across games, even in the same genre, is fraught
with risk. Play session time is driven by content design and intangible
"fun" or playability of the game. These two factors do not
always go together. A 10,000 piece jigsaw puzzle (content design) can
take a lot of time to solve, but not be fun for many users.
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