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Analyze This: Is The Video Game Industry Recession-Proof?
 
 
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Features
  Analyze This: Is The Video Game Industry Recession-Proof?
by Howard Wen
7 comments
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April 9, 2008 Article Start Previous Page 2 of 4 Next
 

Nick Williams, OTX Research

The video game business has shown remarkable resiliency to the economic downturn in recent months. However, it would be presumptuous to say that any entertainment industry is 100% recession-proof.

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That said, the outlook for 2008 remains strong. There is no sign of the market slowing down in the next couple of months.

During the last 12 months, Wii ownership in the U.S. has more than quadrupled, PS3 ownership has tripled, and Xbox 360 ownership has almost doubled [Source: The NPD Group]. The argument could easily be made that if we weren't on the brink of a recession, the video game industry would be growing at a considerably faster rate.

Thanks in large part to Nintendo's ambitious mass-market strategy, the traditional gamer boundaries have officially been broken. While the expansion of the market beyond hardcore gamers has undoubtedly contributed to the record growth in 2008, these new gamers will likely be the first ones to stop buying games if they need to cut their entertainment budget.

There is a risk that Wii titles could struggle in 2008, especially if the economy continues to slide towards a recession.

Traditional gamers simply will not settle on a mediocre game for $60. Furthermore, gamers will only have a limited budget for titles that require a significant investment in peripherals -- i.e. Rock Band.

In this hot new space, only the strongest will survive. Wii Fit, LittleBigPlanet, Spore, GTA IV and Fable 2 are just a few of the titles that are expected to raise the proverbial bar in 2008.

To counter the effects of the economic downturn, many gamers will sell or trade-in their old game collections. GameStop is the clear market leader in this space, and is poised to benefit.

 
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Comments

Anonymous
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I think its not so much the industry as a whole as much as certain sectors of the industry that are immune to recession. I mean if you consider companies like blizzard they are getting more profit from customers outside of the country than inside. I still think that companies that can't reach out overseas will suffer just like everyone else.

norb rozek
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Taking the notion of "substitution" ((i.e., during times of economic strife, consumers replace a more costly good with a similar, less costly good)) in a more intramural sense, it's quite possible that the hand-held market stands to benefit from the recession if consumers begin substituting hand-held purchases for consoles purchases.

Caswal Parker
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Games and other forms of entertainment offer escapism from real life and games I believe offer the best kind of escapism, being in complete control of a character in an imaginary world.

Due to that I think the games industry is naturally recession proof as people try to escape from the reality around them.

Lorenzo Wang
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While we may not know for sure if games are recession-proof, they are certainly more recession-proof than movies. The $/entertainment ratio is much greater, and make games a more prudent buy.

Anonymous
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Mr. Barton clearly has the best grasp of the three

Anonymous
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Finally an Analyze This without the likes of Michael Pachter.

Piotr Zygadlo
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Mr. Barton overpriced hardcore gamers purchasing power. This times are out. Now, when you have every game with many extension sets and sequels, when is so many online communities, hardcoreplayers may abaddon some "worse" titles if there will be lack of cash.

And recession is world-wide. Don't suppose, that oversees companies will handle better. Big may more - as always.

I think, if recession stay for long, there will be less sequels and more games like Portal (small and inovative). And of course great bunk of casuals.


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