Gamasutra - Analyze This: Will The Games Industry Give Hollywood A Run for Its Money This Summer?

Analyze This: Will The Games Industry Give Hollywood A Run for Its Money This Summer?

[They are the professional analysts whose job it is to research, keep track of, advise their clients, and opine to the media about the gaming business. Analyze This cuts right to the chase: Rather than reporting on a subject, and throwing in quotes by analysts to support or refute a point, Gamasutra offers up a timely question pertaining to the business side of the video game industry and simply lets the analysts offer their thoughts directly to you. Each person's opinion is his own and will (probably) not necessarily agree with their fellow colleagues'.]

Earlier in May, Hollywood was in a tizzy over the release of GTA IV, fearing that its popularity (the money spent to buy the game, and the time spent playing it) would negatively affect the box office for the movie industry's blockbuster releases this summer. But the results from the "showdown" between the Iron Man movie and GTA IV suggest that a blockbuster movie and a blockbuster game both targeting the same audience can peacefully co-exist.

Still, we wondered about the rest of this summer. So we asked Nick Williams of OTX, Jesse Divnich of Electronic Entertainment Design and Research, and Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities:

Besides GTA IV, what is the one top summer-release title that you are keeping an eye on?

Which highly expected title, if any, coming this summer do you feel may ultimately disappoint in sales?

Which of the gaming platforms (including handhelds and platforms) do you expect to pick up steam over this summer?

Finally, though you are biased as a professional analyst who covers the gaming industry, do you think this summer in particular will be the one when Hollywood truly should be fearful of competition by the gaming industry for the public's summer entertainment money?

Comments

Jonathan Teske

20 May 2008 at 10:29 am PST

Ah, what about Ninja Gaiden 2 being a 360 exclusive? Or Rock Band on Wii? Either of the new Lego games? Bourne Conspiracy? Soucalibur 4? Hell, even a word on Madden or the DBZ franchise? This is a fluff article that needed a lot more of depth to be considered analytic. Disappointing.

Michael Iatridis

20 May 2008 at 10:55 am PST

I don't think so Jonathan. His point is still made with what referances he refered to. Which is namely that right now video games vs. movies isn't really an issue and most games and movie blockbusters won't be competing for the same slice of time and money from consumers.

Really it kind of makes sense. As a gamer myself I don't see a lot of movies, but for instance even with planning to get wii fit as soon as I can I'd like to see ironman before it leaves theaters. Not saying I'm joe average america or anything but really he's got a point. This debate is mostly moot for now and is going to stay that way till some major shifts in media occur.

Jonathan Teske

20 May 2008 at 3:53 pm PST

I guess I wasn't taking issue with the theme of the article, I just wished for a little more depth in terms of analyzing the effects of each game rather then just listing a title or two from analysts who look at numbers all day.

Also, Michael, didn't you just prove the point of the article in your second paragraph, stating "As a gamer myself I don't see a lot of movies, but for instance even with planning to get Wii Fit as soon as I can I'd like to see Ironman before it leaves theaters." You've obviously chosen that you'd rather spend the little time you've got playing video games, and then hope that you have time later on to catch a movie (if you do at all). There may not be a significant impact as of yet, in terms of video games summer revenue overcoming Hollywood summer blockbusters, but you have just stated what the article is all about. Time is finite, and Hollywood wants all the time it can get so viewers can spend it in a theater, but just as you've said, you'd rather spend it playing Wii Fit or something else, and then eventually (if you do) see Ironman in theater (or DVD rental, on-demand, etc...) But do you see the point? You are part of this "analysis" that felt just brushed upon rather than the depth I'm used to from this site (examples being the RPG retrospective and the Dragonquest retrospective).

This debate should be looked at further because this is the first summer where there are multiple AAA titles coming out compared to the past where it has usually been a barren wasteland. Look at all the titles I listed on top of the titles each analyst listed. Surely there is more to be said than just a few sentences per each question, right?

Michael Iatridis

21 May 2008 at 10:13 am PST

You have a point, I guess I did word that a little silly as well. In any case I guess it'd be more accurate to say I have not been contrubiting to the money of ether games or movies lately, just got out of the 'starving college student' phase of my life and just got a job. So lack of car for now and low money for a bit are both major factors in me going to movies.

Darren Schnare

21 May 2008 at 10:33 am PST

For me it's all about the experience I can have when choosing either games or movies. I find myself very analytical of both mediums when a new release hit's shelves/theaters.

With movies there are genres where for me, it's a no brainer that I'll enjoy it, for games as well. I find myself being more "cavalier" with my movie choices than my game choices only because even if I don't like the movie I rented, there is likely some enjoyment in watching it. With games however, I find that I am way picky about things. If a game rubs me the wrong way them it's done in 5 minutes (ahem Jenga for the Wii = POS).

So for me, as of right now, I watch WAY more movies than I play games.