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 Michael
Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities
Since
you include GTA IV as a summer release, I think that Wii Fit is
the other game to watch. Obviously, the Gamasutra crowd is more interested in Metal
Gear Solid, but I think Wii Fit is going to shock people with its
performance. It looks to me like the game will sell 1 million in the U.S. the
first week, and another 300,000 per month in perpetuity.
As
for a sleeper, I think that expectations are low for Little Big Planet
and for Mercenaries 2, and think both will vastly exceed expectations.
There
are too many potential disappointments to count. I think Saints Row 2
could disappoint -- Borderlands, Guitar Hero: Aerosmith, Don
King Presents: Prize Fighter, This is Vegas, and many others.
It's
clear that the Wii will pick up steam, given that Nintendo has increased
production by around 500,000 per month. We should expect U.S. allocations to
increase to somewhere around 900,000 per month, so the Wii should perform well.
I think Sony's real lift comes after summer. Barring price cuts, the others
should perform well but not materially better than over the first three months
of the year.
Nintendo's Wii Fit
I
think that the logic that Hollywood and video games compete is flawed. At the
current rate, game sales are running at an annualized rate of around $2 billion
above last year's U.S. levels. To the extent that "other
entertainment" is impacted, you need to consider all entertainment,
including sporting events, DVD purchases, book purchases, concert tickets, free
TV, VOD, Internet surfing, etc.
So at best, box office represents around 10
percent of the entertainment hours consumed, meaning that the annual
impact on box office is around $200 million -- 10 percent times $2 billion
video-game growth. That's a rounding error, and you certainly won't be able to
discern the impact over the summer only.
Got a
business-related question concerning the games industry that you would like to
suggest for discussion in Analyze This? Are you a professional
analyst and would like to take part in this column? Email howardhwen@gmail.com.
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Really it kind of makes sense. As a gamer myself I don't see a lot of movies, but for instance even with planning to get wii fit as soon as I can I'd like to see ironman before it leaves theaters. Not saying I'm joe average america or anything but really he's got a point. This debate is mostly moot for now and is going to stay that way till some major shifts in media occur.
Also, Michael, didn't you just prove the point of the article in your second paragraph, stating "As a gamer myself I don't see a lot of movies, but for instance even with planning to get Wii Fit as soon as I can I'd like to see Ironman before it leaves theaters." You've obviously chosen that you'd rather spend the little time you've got playing video games, and then hope that you have time later on to catch a movie (if you do at all). There may not be a significant impact as of yet, in terms of video games summer revenue overcoming Hollywood summer blockbusters, but you have just stated what the article is all about. Time is finite, and Hollywood wants all the time it can get so viewers can spend it in a theater, but just as you've said, you'd rather spend it playing Wii Fit or something else, and then eventually (if you do) see Ironman in theater (or DVD rental, on-demand, etc...) But do you see the point? You are part of this "analysis" that felt just brushed upon rather than the depth I'm used to from this site (examples being the RPG retrospective and the Dragonquest retrospective).
This debate should be looked at further because this is the first summer where there are multiple AAA titles coming out compared to the past where it has usually been a barren wasteland. Look at all the titles I listed on top of the titles each analyst listed. Surely there is more to be said than just a few sentences per each question, right?
With movies there are genres where for me, it's a no brainer that I'll enjoy it, for games as well. I find myself being more "cavalier" with my movie choices than my game choices only because even if I don't like the movie I rented, there is likely some enjoyment in watching it. With games however, I find that I am way picky about things. If a game rubs me the wrong way them it's done in 5 minutes (ahem Jenga for the Wii = POS).
So for me, as of right now, I watch WAY more movies than I play games.