Ed Barton, Screen Digest

How each platform will fare this holiday season: Overall, I expect strong growth in current-generation home console games sales, up around 70 percent on 2007 on a global basis. I also remain relatively confident in seeing year-on-year hardware sales growth for all current home console platforms: around 30 percent for Xbox 360, 40 percent for PS3, and 50 percent for Wii.

DSi will be released in the Japanese market only in 2008. Territorial roll-out, alongside the new PSP-3000, should buoy the market for handhelds next year, but we expect hardware sales to fall in 2009.

Regarding this year, we expect PSP to finish the year strongly [with sales] growth of under 40 percent. DS hardware is likely to fall, but against extremely high comparatives after a banner year for DS in 2007 when it sold through just under 30 million units.

Titles which will be hits, and which will be misses:

My top sales picks for the final quarter are Guitar Hero World Tour, Call of Duty: World at War, Need for Speed Undercover, FIFA Soccer 09, Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 and Tomb Raider Underworld.

Of the platform-exclusive titles, I expect LittleBigPlanet, Gears of War 2 and Animal Crossing: City Folk to perform strongly. 

Nintendo's Animal Crossing: City Folk

Titles which might struggle for recognition, in one of the most competitive Christmas shopping seasons ever, include any game targeting more casual gamers and games based on new, non-licensed IP's.

Shelves at retail will be extremely crowded this Christmas and publishers must clearly communicate the benefits of their games, especially to more casual audiences who don't obsessively read every website preview.

How the industry will fare this holiday season:

Naturally, the wider economic situation could change suddenly. It is worth watching closely for further dents to consumer confidence. Potential negative factors include:

Although Wii demand has yet to show signs of softening, its pursuit for market expansion through more casual classes of gamers may leave it exposed to segments who are more likely to cut spending on video games because it is not considered an essential part of their entertainment media consumption.

This would apply to both existing Wii owners' games spending and prospective Wii owners considering a console purchase. A counter argument is that the ASP [average selling price] of Wii games is relatively low with a large proportion of budget titles on offer.

Both Xbox 360 (the high-end models) and, particularly, PS3 console sales could suffer from consumers shunning the most expensive hardware options.

Purchasers buying a console for someone else might also be more sensitive to hardware priced at the top end of the range. Such sensitivities might also have a negative effect on the market for peripherals.