Contents
Analyze This: Will The Slowing Economy Affect Holiday Sales?
 
 
Printer-Friendly VersionPrinter-Friendly Version
 
Latest News
spacer View All spacer
 
November 22, 2009
 
Video Game Watchdog National Institute On Media And The Family Shutting Down [11]
 
Modern Warfare 2 Infinity Ward's 'Most Successful PC Version' Yet [12]
 
New Tech, Design Details Of Project Natal To Emerge At Gamefest In February
spacer
Latest Jobs
spacer View All     Post a Job     RSS spacer
 
November 22, 2009
 
Trion Redwood City
Sr. Evnironment Modeler
 
Trion Redwood City
Sr. Environment Artist
 
Sucker Punch Productions
3D Environment Artist
 
Sucker Punch Productions
Network Programmer
 
Sucker Punch Productions
Character Artist
 
Sucker Punch Productions
Texture Artist
 
Monolith Productions
Sr. Software Engineer, Engine - Monolith Productions - #113767
 
Sony Online Entertainment
Brand Manager
spacer
Latest Features
spacer View All spacer
 
November 22, 2009
 
arrow Upping The Craft: Susan O'Connor On Games Writing [6]
 
arrow Small Developers: Minimizing Risks in Large Productions - Part II [7]
 
arrow iPhone Piracy: The Inside Story [48]
 
arrow And Yet It Grows: Analyzing the Size and Growth of the European Game Market [5]
 
arrow NPD: Behind the Numbers, October 2009 [13]
 
arrow Reflecting On Uncharted 2: How They Did It [5]
 
arrow Sponsored Feature: Rasterization on Larrabee -- Adaptive Rasterization Helps Boost Efficiency
 
arrow Postmortem: Wadjet Eye's The Blackwell Convergence [2]
spacer
Latest Blogs
spacer View All     Post     RSS spacer
 
November 22, 2009
 
Time Fcuk
 
Accepting the Inherent Value of Games
 
Planckogenesis, Part II: Song Structure & Gravy Train [1]
spacer
About
spacer News Director:
Leigh Alexander
Features Director:
Christian Nutt
Editor At Large:
Chris Remo
Advertising:
John 'Malik' Watson
Recruitment/Education:
Gina Gross
 
Features
  Analyze This: Will The Slowing Economy Affect Holiday Sales?
by Howard Wen
3 comments
Share RSS
 
 
November 19, 2008 Article Start Previous Page 3 of 4 Next
 

Jesse Divnich, Electronic Entertainment Design and Research

How each platform will fare this holiday season: The only console I am concerned about is the PS3. While our industry will be resilient through this economic downturn, there will be, however, some casualties. And because consumers generally become more price-sensitive during these periods, I foresee a lot of consumers who may have wanted to purchase a PS3 this season to hold off until the economy recovers or until Sony drops the PS3's price.

Advertisement

In other words, I do not think the Xbox 360 will steal too many potential PS3 owners this holiday season.

Recent data has indicated that the Xbox 360 price cut in September had little effect on PS3 sales, which could be a positive indicator that the difference in price between the two systems will do little to influence would-be PS3 owners to become potential Xbox 360 owners this holiday season.

I do not see any negative impact on the other major systems this holiday season. Among next-generation home and portable consoles, we expect a 15 percent increase in units sold compared to last year. This, of course, is mostly due to the Nintendo Wii, which we forecast will sell in upwards of 55 percent more units than last holiday season.

Titles which will be hits, and which will be misses:

I do not have any major concerns with all the high-profile titles this holiday season: Dead Space, Call of Duty: World at War, Far Cry 2, LittleBigPlanet, Fallout 3, Resistance 2, Gears of War 2, Guitar Hero World Tour, Rock Band 2, Fable 2, Prince of Persia. And any other AAA title will likely meet or beat the market's expectations.


Sony/Media Molecule's LittleBigPlanet

If any cuts are made out of a gamer's holiday budget, it will be those titles that they could do without: games like Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe, which is an awesome game with great branding qualities. However, it simply does not stack up against the large list of AAA titles this holiday season.

Others include: Need for Speed Undercover (which has become a stale brand as of late), Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts, Spider-Man: Web of Shadows, Midnight Club: Los Angeles, and any other title that squeaks by with quality scores below 80 percent.

As consumers become more judicious with their discretionary income this holiday season, quality scores will likely have a bigger weight on a gamer's purchasing decision than in previous holidays.

How the industry will fare this holiday season:

Depending on whom you talk to, the last mini-recession was in 2001. Some say March 2001 through November 2001; others say November 2001 through November 2002.

Nonetheless, both periods showed software growth of [over] 5 percent and 25 percent, respectively. While the underlying mechanics of our current economic crisis is different from seven years ago, I still feel the video game industry is in great shape.

I will start to worry about the health of our industry when soccer moms, who would be the first to cut their gaming budget, stop buying 500,000 Wii Fits every month.

 
Article Start Previous Page 3 of 4 Next
 
Comments

Roberto Alfonso
profile image
I am not sure many readers will bash him for Animal Crossing ;-) I wonder how SWS can be constrained by Wii Fit boards when there are almost 3m of them in the US market alone. While it is just 25% of the install base in US, I would think owners of the board would want to buy games for it, like Family Ski and SWS.

Richard Cody
profile image
I don't think the boxed retail outlets can keep up their sales with the economy in the shape it's in. Where the money can be made though is premium add-on content, cheaper online downloadable games, and expanding replay of games in general.

John Petersen
profile image
I know they just layed off 30 people at Planning zoning and building which means no permits are being pulled for building, and every department in the county is cutting 10%.

Yeah, it's gonna slow.


none
 
Comment:
 


Submit Comment