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Jesse
Divnich, Electronic Entertainment Design and Research
How
each platform will fare this holiday season: The
only console I am concerned about is the PS3. While our industry will be
resilient through this economic downturn, there will be, however, some
casualties. And because consumers generally become more price-sensitive during
these periods, I foresee a lot of consumers who may have wanted to purchase a
PS3 this season to hold off until the economy recovers or until Sony drops the
PS3's price.
In
other words, I do not think the Xbox 360 will steal too many potential PS3
owners this holiday season.
Recent data has indicated that the Xbox 360 price
cut in September had little effect on PS3 sales, which could be a positive
indicator that the difference in price between the two systems will do little
to influence would-be PS3 owners to become potential Xbox 360 owners this
holiday season.
I do
not see any negative impact on the other major systems this holiday season.
Among next-generation home and portable consoles, we expect a 15 percent
increase in units sold compared to last year. This, of course, is mostly due to
the Nintendo Wii, which we forecast will sell in upwards of 55 percent more units
than last holiday season.
Titles
which will be hits, and which will be misses:
I do
not have any major concerns with all the high-profile titles this holiday
season: Dead Space, Call of Duty: World at War, Far Cry 2,
LittleBigPlanet, Fallout 3, Resistance 2,
Gears of War 2, Guitar Hero World Tour, Rock Band 2, Fable
2, Prince of Persia. And any other AAA title will likely meet or
beat the market's expectations.

Sony/Media Molecule's LittleBigPlanet
If
any cuts are made out of a gamer's holiday budget, it will be those titles that
they could do without: games like Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe, which
is an awesome game with great branding qualities. However, it simply does not
stack up against the large list of AAA titles this holiday season.
Others
include: Need for Speed Undercover (which has become a stale brand as of
late), Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts, Spider-Man: Web of Shadows,
Midnight Club: Los Angeles, and any other title that squeaks by with
quality scores below 80 percent.
As
consumers become more judicious with their discretionary income this holiday
season, quality scores will likely have a bigger weight on a gamer's purchasing
decision than in previous holidays.
How
the industry will fare this holiday season:
Depending
on whom you talk to, the last mini-recession was in 2001. Some say March 2001
through November 2001; others say November 2001 through November 2002.
Nonetheless, both periods showed software growth of [over] 5 percent and 25
percent, respectively. While the underlying mechanics of our current economic
crisis is different from seven years ago, I still feel the video game industry
is in great shape.
I
will start to worry about the health of our industry when soccer moms, who
would be the first to cut their gaming budget, stop buying 500,000 Wii Fits every month.
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Yeah, it's gonna slow.