Doug Creutz, Cowen and Company

I think piracy has had a moderate impact, but the bigger problem has simply been that the installed base never took off to the extent Sony hoped.

In the US, the DS installed base is about two times the PSP installed base. PSP games are largely designed for only the PSP. So you don't get any multi-platform leverage off your R&D efforts.

It's pretty clear that the UMD as a media alternative (for video) is dead. If there's a better/cheaper alternative, there's no reason for Sony not to embrace it.

If getting rid of UMD in favor of another alternative helps solve the piracy issue, it should be an obvious choice.

With the surprisingly weak launch of Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars on the DS, it's pretty clear that the PSP remains the handheld system of choice for core gamers.

(However, that's a bit of a contradiction in terms since core gamers tend to favor console gaming.)

Liberty City Stories did just fine on the PSP, despite a vastly smaller hardware installed base at the time of launch, compared to the current DS installed base.

Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories

But other than that, it's tough to make the economics work. There may be a viable niche for smaller, less expensive, creative downloadable games.