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Last Thursday, the NPD Group released its latest estimates for
retail videogame sales in the United States during the month of
August 2009. As predicted by many analysts, sales were down again
compared to August of 2008, but there were signs that the industry
could have passed an inflection point – or even a local minimum –
and was headed for growth again in September.
This month we'll focus on several key areas. We'll look at pricing
of console hardware, specifically Sony's PlayStation 3 and where
Microsoft and Nintendo go from here. Madden NFL 10
sales were below expectations, and we'll examine the retail prospects for Activision's port of Call of Duty 4 for the Wii.
Finally we'll explain how the
industry is likely to miss $20 billion in revenue for the year –
down from the high of $21.3 billion in 2008 – and add some comments
on the outlook for the rest of the year.
Industry at a Glance
Industry revenue for August 2009
dropped $176 million dollars compared to the same month in 2008, a
decrease of 17%. While the figures are scary, they're actually an
improvement from July when year-over-year industry revenue dropped a
staggering $340 million – or 29% – from the figures for July
2008.
To the extent that the loss was
smaller, both in absolute and relative terms, the industry fared
better in August than it did in July. These readings are the basis
for much of the turnaround speculation surrounding September's sales.
One segment of the industry,
accessories, actually demonstrated growth over 2008. All other
segments were down, with the hardware segment particularly hard hit
with revenue down almost $100 million for the month.
Software was down 15%, or about
$80 million, in August. At least a quarter of that differential, or
$20 million, could be theoretically attributed to disappointing sales
of the month's big software release, Madden NFL 10.
We again offer the caveat that
the NPD Group's figures cited here only include retail sales and do
not include sales of software and content offered through the online
storefronts on each current generation console and some handhelds.
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So how does one go about discovering figures for any of the digital storefronts, particularly the handhelds?
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=25167
And here:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=25176
Unfortunately WiiWare and DSiWare have basically no way of telling how well a game may be selling, which is an unfortunate shame.
For example, whatever craigslist makes doesn't equal what newspapers used to make off classifieds. And it takes a lot of $2.99 iPhone purchases to match the revenue of one $60 game.
I'd love to see more on Gamasutra about how the transition to digital distribution is impacting the industry, but maybe the data just isn't public knowledge. It's kind of weird to think this about an industry built on computing technology, but games may be the last major entertainment and media industry to feel the full impact of the transition to digital goods.