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[Gamasutra's in-depth analysis of November's NPD U.S. game retail sales numbers looks at year-to-date highs and lows, the Xbox 360's surprising sales reversal against the PS3, Wii's 2009 individual Top 10 domination, and much more.]
Each November all of the parts of the video game industry play
important roles. The big publishers push out their biggest releases
of the year into a frenzy of holiday buying. Retailers across the
country offer discounts and deals to lure holiday shoppers.
The
platform manufacturers issue chest-thumping, post-Black Friday press
releases touting how quickly their systems were flying off the
shelves after Thanksgiving. And consumers, the engine behind it all,
spend money on games like they never have before.
In a down year – and that is certainly what 2009 will turn out
to be – November is the kind of month that one hopes will bring at
least a glimmer of hope that things aren't as bad as the past few
months have suggested.
Despite phenomenal sales of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2,
the biggest videogame release of all time, the industry still didn't
generate more money than it did during November of last year. Even
with 16.5 million more current-generation consoles on the market,
monthly software sales were down 5% from 33.9 to 32.2 million units.
In this month's survey of the
latest U.S. retail data from the NPD Group, we'll check in with the latest hardware figures and just how Microsoft's Xbox 360 moved ahead of the PlayStation 3. We'll then examine how Nintendo's
software fortunes have declined from 2008 to 2009, leaving an opening
for Microsoft to take the lead.
Finally, we'll look at the top 10
software titles going into the final month of the year and take a
final measurement of where the industry will finish the year.
The Top-Line
Figures
Before we begin looking at larger
trends, we get our bearings by looking at the key revenue figures for
November 2009.
The hardware segment was hardest
hit in November 2009, down 13% from the same month a year earlier. As
we have explained previously, lower unit sales and price cuts have
driven hardware revenue lower in previous months and the same was in
November. Hardware accounts for 35-42% of the revenue in any given
month.
The accessories segment – which
covers items like controllers and points cards for online purchases –
has been relatively robust this year, but actually dropped more
relative to last year than did software. However, accessories are a
small part of the market and therefore the loss in dollars was not as
significant.
Other than a brief increase in
year-on-year software revenue in September, the U.S. game console retail software segment has
seen double-digit declines in every month since February 2009. By
this measure, the 3% decline in software revenue in November compared
to the year prior can actually be considered a modest positive sign.
We remind readers that the data
above, as with almost all data from the NPD Group, does not cover
videogames sold through online distribution services, downloadable
content, nor subscription fees.
Such revenue is tracked with varying
success by some companies, including the NPD Group, but most data
about digital distribution sales is not yet public, and none of it is accounted for here. Some undetermined
but potentially significant fraction of the revenue declines in the NPD Group data here is no
doubt accounted for by this parallel market.
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@ Andrew
Overall the economy will be a drag in 2010, however i am of two minds about 1Q. There will be a few AAA titles that were pushed from 4Q '09
A) The market will be overcrowded, games will cannibalize each other, sales will be lackluster.
B) The consumer will have choice and thus show up at retail.
Sure publishers "ran-away" from MW2, but they were all too happy to do so, thanks to the shortcomings of some holiday releases (think Mirrors Edge) and the success of some 1Q releases (think GTA IV) consensus had been that packing the 4Q was not a good idea... too bad all executives were thinking the same thing.
October had a good mix of AAA titles of different genres, November is well storied, December looks bare. The consumer wont show if there is no choice.
This retail survey doesn't include subscription revenue from what is possibly the most profitable game ever (World of Warcraft), even though that game reportedly brings in more monthly revenue than most games in the top 10 retail list. It penalizes Euro-centric games like FIFA and ignores huge growth areas like China, not to mention the entire casual non-console market.
The games business has outgrown the usefulness of this survey IMHO, it's time for something better.
This survey performed by NPD is not meant to be a reflection of global gaming trends. It is meant to reflect the gaming trends of the US and the US alone. People always complain that it does not take into account the global game market while failing to realize the logistics of such an endeavor.
NPD has been in the business of market research for 50+ years and during that time they have had to build report and partnerships with many retail outlets, hardware manufacturers and media outlets. It takes years to build the infrastructure needed to do what they do in the US. Can you imagine what it would require to take on a global market? If it took 50+ years for the US alone, it could take several hundred to get the same influence on a global basis.
Now lets look at Digital Sales. It is possible to get and build the numbers for such sales. The only problem is that digital sales are so fractured. We have Wiiware, PSN, XBLA, XBLIG, Wii VC, Steam, Impulse, Direct 2 Drive, PopCap, etc etc. Each of these services have very different games available on them. Many of these services have a lot of games that are not available through other services. NPD would have to partner and work out deals for all of these services. Considering the oldest of the Services are only 10 or so years old, Nielsen has not had the time to build the partnerships needed for their market research. You also have to consider the sales data from non major service providers and developers selling their games on their own.
Now lets talk about fee based games such as WoW and other MMOs. These have much the same logistic issues of digital distribution. The main issue here is most of these MMO companies handle all the payments in house and keep the numbers as a trade secret. Blizzard publishes rough numbers every now and then, but I doubt they would actually publish numbers in the form of (X players paid their fee this month). Even if NPD managed to build a partnership with Blizzard for WoW, you have to consider they would have to build a partnership with every MMO provider. Let's look at MMOs, WoW, Everquest 2, Ragnorok Online, Maple Story, Runescape, Habbo Hotel, Gaia Online, Gulid Wars, etc. That is a lot of work.
I hope that helps put things in a little more perspective for you.
Are people actually paying $60 for a game? Amazon, Walmart and other online and B&M retailers routinely discount even the new releases...and not just during the holiday rush.
It would be interesting to see a comparison that looks at game ASP to see how the revenue drop divides between volume and price.
"which AFAIK are based on a subset of the United States packaged goods market. Not only do they ignore the fact that electronic entertainment is a global market, they have not yet adapted to the vast changes in content distribution made possible by the Internet."
I really don't see what the heck you are complaining about here.
There are seperate sales charts published on the site every week for the UK and Japan games sales, so why complain about a monthly chart published for the US just once a month, especially since the US is by far the biggest games market on the planet. Plus NPD publishes a seperate sales chart for PC games sales.
"This retail survey doesn't include subscription revenue from what is possibly the most profitable game ever (World of Warcraft), even though that game reportedly brings in more monthly revenue than most games in the top 10 retail list."
You might want to read this:
Chinese government rejects World of Warcraft, again
http://www.massively.com/2009/11/02/breaking-chinese-government-rejects-world-of
-warcraft-again/
" It penalizes Euro-centric games like FIFA and ignores huge growth areas like China, not to mention the entire casual non-console market."
FIFA sales are accounted for every week in the UK charts right on here at Gamasutra , and on Euro charts at other sites.
And console sales in China are virtually non-existent.
"The games business has outgrown the usefulness of this survey IMHO, "
This survey, happens to account for the biggest chunk of the games business anywhere on the planet. The games business hasn't outgrown anything.
Regardless of whether or not there are additional surveys that count some other things, the United States packaged goods numbers reported by this survey are being used to benchmark the status of the entire global electronic entertainment industry, even though packaged goods are completely irrelevant to some segments of the business!
This particular survey is being repeatedly referenced in mainstream and financial news reports to paint an extremely negative picture of the industry. My point is if a negative view is deserved, then by all means report it, but at least base it on accurate numbers instead of a snapshot of one segment of the business.