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As expected, the U.S. retail video game industry returned to growth with the release last week of March 2010 sales figures by the NPD Group. Outside of December 2009 – when revenues grew by a modest 3.9% – and September 2009 – when revenues were flat – the industry has experienced mostly double-digit year-over-year declines.
Simultaneously Sony's PlayStation 3 has finally demonstrated that it has the strength to dominate the software scene. Consider this simple comparison: more money was spent on PlayStation 3 software in March 2010 than November 2009, even though the latter is one of the biggest shopping months of the year.
However not all is well in Sony's house, as its PlayStation Portable (PSP) was bested by the Nintendo DS platform by a nearly 6-to-1 margin in hardware units and an 8-to-1 margin in software dollars.
Below we'll cover all these nuances beneath the top-line figures and try to provide some insight into where the industry will go from here.
The Numbers At A Glance
While total revenue was up for the month compared to March 2009, only the software and accessories actually realized increases. Even though 157,000 addition systems were sold in March of this year, downward pressure on hardware prices depressed revenue further.
According to Anita Frazier, analyst for the NPD Group, console hardware prices were down 16% year-over-year in March 2010. However, average handheld hardware prices were up over 10% year-over-year in February 2010 (two months ago), according to data provided exclusively to Gamasutra, and we expect that average handheld hardware prices increased further last month with the introduction of the Nintendo DSi XL at $190.
Out of this mix of shifting hardware unit sales and prices, we see that the total money spent on hardware in March 2010 dropped nearly 4% to $440.5 million.
Figures for all segments, along with year-to-date (YTD) figures, are given in the table below.
Software revenue was up 10% in March, based on an 11% growth in unit sales with a very modest 0.5% decline in average prices. That's the first real growth in the software segment since February 2009 over a year ago.
Although data for March 2010 was not available as of this writing, data provided to us on accessory sales in the first two months of 2010 reveals that the situation is quite different in that segment. In particular, accessory prices were up 13% year-over-year through February. However, given that that segment has seen only single-digit growth in its revenue, there must have been a corresponding 10% or more decline in unit sales.
Finally, we note that the data provided by the NPD Group does not reflect sales of games, add-ons, or subscriptions purchased through online outlets like Xbox Live, the PlayStation Store, or the Wii Shop channel. The lack of hard data on this segment of sales will continue to blur our view of the state of the industry, especially as that segment inevitably grows in the coming months and years.
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Couple of points:
From article: "The last time it could point to a single-month million-seller like March's God of War III was in June 2008. Even then, Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots reached a million units by combining software-only copies with the copies bundled in with a special edition of the PlayStation 3 hardware. "
The PS3 had single-month million sellers in December and November 2009 with MW2.
November 2009
2. PS3 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 1.87 million
December 2009
5. PS3 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 1.12 million
However, God of War 3 is the first PS3 first party game to have sold over a million in just one month, as neither MGS4 or MW2 were first party games.
"Therefore, Microsoft would ideally drop its prices in early August – say $170 for the entry-level system and a higher-end system with a commensurately lower price – and garner the positive press coverage for high hardware and Madden sales just before the September launch of Halo Reach. A subsequent launch of Microsoft's Project Natal would keep Microsoft in front of consumer eyes for the longest possible period prior to the sales rush of the holiday months."
Another possible scenario could be (depending on when the 360 Slim launches, which I think should be by September):
August or September:
Reduce prices to clear the stocks of the "Fat" 360's.
360 Elite (120GB) : $250
Arcade 360: $150
This could continue for as long as they units of the "Fat" 360's in the retail channel, maybe up till Nov/Dec. Last year, they still had 60GB 360's for sale at $250 in some places even in December.
September (360 Slim/Reach launch):
Special 360 Elite Slim with 250 GB Hard Drive + Halo Reach+ Extra controller : $400
Arcade 360 Slim + Archive game : $200
October ( Natal launch):
360 Elite Slim with 250 GB Hard Drive + Natal+Natal game :$300
Arcade Slim + Natal+ Natal game : $200
November (Call of Duty 7 launch):
360 Elite Slim with 250 GB Hard Drive + Call of Duty 7 : $350
Thanks.
I am a little confused by your Elite prices there. What does the qualifier "special" mean in the Halo Reach bundle that would justify a price of $400 when the Elite with Natal is only $300? Wouldn't the Natal be closer to $400 as well?
My thinking (and I could be wrong of course),
# 1. The "Fat" 360's get a clearance price cut end of August/start of September.
# 2. The "Slim" 360's launch ONLY with $400 Reach bundles in September at the "old prices", save that they will have a bigger 250GB hard drive. There will be no "stand alone" Slims" in September.
# 3. My speculative Halo Reach bundle will be packed with an extra controller(RRP $50 even though it's much cheaper on Amazon), plus a Halo Reach game ($60), plus a 250GB Halo Reach 360 Slim ($300) bringing the total to approx $400.
#4. The "real" price cut with the new 360 "Slims" come in October with the launch of a $300 Natal Elite bundle (if Natal launches in October), when Microsoft effectively prices the 250 GB Slim at $250, plus Natal ($50), plus a Natal minigame, and sells it for $300.
The way am looking at it, Halo Reach and a "Slim" Halo Reach 250 GB bundle will sell very well at $400 anyways, without the need for Microsoft to put in any futher inducements by cutting the price, because well it's a mainline Halo game.
However, with Natal, Microsoft will have to create a very "priced to sell' bundle to even get the notoriousy "hard care" 360 gamer demographic to take the bait. A $300 360 Slim Elite with Natal bundled, in addition to a $200 360 Slim Arcade with Natal, will really help get Natal into plenty of homes.
The thing with Natal, is to ramp up the install base as quickly as possible, so 3rd parties can make even more gamers for it, even if it costs Microosft some profits the short run.
All mere speculation of course.
The 360 "Slim" could launch earlier than September, and Natal could very well launch as late as November. Plus the 360 could get a price cut well before September/October if 360 monthly sales collpase. So far they are holding up pretty well, and should be up year on year for April and May, when the 360 only sold 175K last year.
That makes a lot more sense when you explain that you are accounting for a console price cut in October.
I am not sure, if MS would take the risk of introducing a "360 Slim", it seems, they finally mastered the technical difficulties with their current models. A new possible slimmer model would introduce new risks of failure.
But on the other hand, if they manage to get out a 360 Slim by September and can sell it packed with Natal, it would definitely boost their sales and help them in the mainstream media to place the Natal 360 as a new console on the market.
Perhaps a hardware redesign would make it more reliable. As I understand it the problems with the 360 aren't directly due to excessive heat production in too small a space, so a smaller version wouldn't necessarily be more prone to overheating. The problem was more due to thermal glue allowing the heatsink to move out of position and become less effective. A new model could fix this problem and compensate with cheaper parts overall. Would be handy to release with Natal as its target audience will be less forgiving of RROD errors.
Nobody knows for sure, where the RROD problems came from, but in the last revisions of the hardware (since 2007), MS introduced a completely redisigned heatsink, in the same time, the went from 90nm GPUs to 65nm GPUs, which produce less heat.
I would doubt, that the problem was only the thermal glue, cause then, MS could fix the RROD problem in no time.
The 360 is already a relatively small console, a slimmer model would definitely require a new cooling architecture and/or a smaller manufacturing process.
Modern ATI GPUs are produced in the 40 nm manufactoring process, but reducing the process would in short term increase production costs (even if it reduces them in long term), cause the production failure rate is higher. This would lead to higher overall costs for the 360, so it is quite possible, that a redesigned 360 would cost MS more to develop and produce, than the current model. In this case, I think, MS would shy away from a redesign.
If they manage to sink the costs on the same level as for the current 360, it would be something different, but I don't know, if that is possible.