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NPD: Behind the Numbers, August 2011
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NPD: Behind the Numbers, August 2011

September 12, 2011 Article Start Previous Page 3 of 4 Next
 

The 3DS Price Drop

When we discussed the July 2011 sales estimates released by the NPD Group, Nintendo had already announced its intention to price the Nintendo 3DS at $170 as of August 12. Because the announcement came right at the end of the July sales period, it could only have affected three days of sales out of 28.

According to Nintendo's press release after the August 2011 sales estimates were published, they saw sales 260% higher during the 19 days following the price cut compared to the analogous period in July. (This suggests that Nintendo is relying on its own sales tracking system, since that period extends beyond that covered by the NPD Group's estimates.)

As a result of the price drop, the Nintendo 3DS saw sales increase from about 22,500 units per week in July to over nearly 59,000 units per week in August.

Sales of the Nintendo DS systems (Lite, DSi, and DSi XL) dropped 45% month-over-month while total sales of Nintendo handhelds (3DS plus DS) were flat from July to August.

Together, these facts suggest that consumer demand for Nintendo handhelds remained relatively flat and those shoppers largely opted for the 3DS over one of the older models.

As the figure below shows, that sales rate puts it above every month except March 2011 (the system's launch). Moreover, we still haven't seen a full month of sales figures for the system at its new $170 price, so there is the possibility that its weekly rate will rise again in September.

Given the preliminary readings, it would appear that the Nintendo 3DS will exceed 300,000 units in September (a five-week month for the NPD Group's purposes), which is clearly a strong push going into the holidays.

Let us turn to where the 3DS will go from here, since it is likely to stay entrenched at its current $170 price for a very long time.

Supplies of the $100 Nintendo DS Lite appear to be drying up at retail, leaving the $150 Nintendo DSi and the $170 Nintendo DSi XL as the only two alternatives to the $170 Nintendo 3DS. We expect Nintendo to announce new pricing for the older models in the coming months, perhaps putting the DSi at $130 and the DSi XL at $150.

Even with its own older brethren competing at lower prices, the Nintendo 3DS should be well-positioned for the holidays, since Nintendo has made it clear that 3DS software will be its primary handheld focus going forward. The company is betting that Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 will draw enough fans to the system to keep sales fueled into next year when, hopefully, more third-party software will begin to arrive.

After a slow start, the last four months of 2011 are the window during which the Nintendo 3DS will have its second chance to establish itself as a major platform. As the older DS line recedes in importance, Sony's PSP continues its slow decline, and the PlayStation Vita remains unavailable in the U.S., Nintendo will have the dedicated handheld market all to itself.

If it executes well, the company and current management could reap the benefits of a big turnaround, akin to the revival the Nintendo DS saw with the introduction of the DS Lite in mid-2006.

Should it fail, and that possibility should not yet be ruled out, then the consequences will not only be dire for Nintendo. The industry at large is struggling with an ongoing image of weakness, and headlines inside and outside the video game press will likely portray Nintendo's stumbling as another indication that the iPhone and iPad app markets have irrevocably changed the economic landscape for games. In particular, we believe that that will be the storyline – whether it is true or not.


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Comments


Billy Joe Cain
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I can see why we are concerned about retail sales, I wonder just how much the online sales, virtual items, Facebook gaming, digital downloads, game resales, etc. all play into the overall equation.



Personally, I do not purchase a lot of full-priced (i.e. new) games. Used, well-reviewed titles are generally what stock my pile of games "to play when I have time." My kids are treated to 5-10 year old Editor's Choice games that have a ton of play time. 40+ hours for $5-10.



With that behavior becoming more prevalent among budget conscious parents / kids, how much is the shift of retailers heading for used games for additional revenue affecting the industry? The space at our local GameStop has about 25% of its shelf space filled with used titles, often only $5 less than the new ones on their "new used" sections. That HAS to be taking a bite out of sales.



Thank you for the article. C'mon, PlayStation! I'm still counting on ya!

bjc

Achilles de Flandres
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There's only so many customers that the industry can sell Xbox's, Playstations and Wii's too. After 6 years, those who wanted a game system has probably already bought it by now. It's impossible to maintain extremely high levels of console and software sales, year-after-year. This just seems like the natural process of industry sales.



It ballooned in 2008 because that's when Wii, PS3 and 360 hit their stride, and numerous generation-defining games were released. Gears of War (late 07), GTA 4, Modern Warfare 1 (late 07), Assassin's Creed, BioShock, Portal, Little Big Planet, Resistance, Crysis, Team Fortress 2 etc...



It seems obvious that sales would inevitabley soon to drop off after hitting it's maximum potential between console sales and new software.

Michael Lubker
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The industry should not be relying on a cyclical model if it wants steady growth.


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