When a new Dragon Quest releases in Japan, many expect millions of immediate sales, and that the country will treat it as a public holiday -- but that was far from the case with Square Enix's new MMORPG for the franchise.
Dragon Quest X debuted for Wii last week and sold only 367,000 copies, according to Media Create figures (420,000 you if go by Famitsu's numbers). That's the lowest a mainline entry for the series has sold during its opening week in recent memory.
For comparison, Dragon Quest IX sold more than 2.3 million units for the DS in just two days when it hit Japanese stores a few years ago. Other recent numbered entries moved around or over 2 million copies there, too.
That doesn't necessarily mean Dragon Quest X will be the latest subscription-based MMORPG to face serious troubles and require drastic changes, nor does it absolutely signal waning demand for a franchise that's produced hit after hit in Japan since the mid-1980s.
Another console MMORPG from Square Enix, Final Fantasy XI also posted worryingly small numbers in its first week compared to traditional releases -- only 64,000 copies instead of millions -- but monthly subscription fees, several expansions, and a dedicated fanbase helped that game become the most profitable entry in the franchise's history.
While the market has changed since that game's release a decade ago (its MMORPG sequel Final Fantasy XIV has struggled for various reasons), there are other factors to consider, too, such as consumers potentially waiting for the planned release of Dragon Quest X on Wii U.
One thing that isn't uncertain is Dragon Quest X's affect on Wii hardware sales -- though the five-year-old system has suffered a slump and a lack of blockbuster titles lately, its sales quadrupled in Japan to more than 41,000 copies last week, while all other consoles sold considerably less week-to-week.
Square Enix has not yet announced any plans to release Dragon Quest X in North America and Europe, where the series is much less popular.
Some points to keep in mind:
According to Square-Enix, Final Fantasy XI is the most profitable entry in the series.
(http://andriasang.com/con1mt/ffxi_profits/)
In the first month Square-Enix shipped 620000 units of Final Fantasy XIV, on a worldwide basis.
(http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31364/Square_Enix_Ships_630000_FFXIV_Copies_W orking_On_Regaining_Trust.php)
According to Bioware, Star Wars The old republic needs 500000 subscribers to be profitable, again on a worldwide basis.
(http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/32784/EA_Old_Republic_MMO_To_Show_Profit_With _500000_Subscribers.php)
With this in mind, I think selling between 360000 and 420000 units of Dragon Quest X in one week in Japan alone is pretty impressive. Remember that running an MMORPG in one country only generates a fraction of costs, it generates, when you run it on a worldwide basis.
To compare Dragon Quest X to Dragon Quest IX is comparing Apples to Oranges, nobody expected it to sell in the regions of a mainline Dragon Quest, this didn't happen for Ultima Online, it didn't happen for Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XIV, why should it happen with Dragon Quest.
Alternate headline: "Platform with worst online support, written off as dead for almost a year, and being replaced in six months sees 400k day-1 sales of online-only game"
(or if I'm feeling snarky, "Worst-selling Dragon Quest outsells best-selling PS Vita game 3:1")
I appreciate the opposing point of framing from the head line, and I'm actually playing DQX right now, but it should be pointed out that everyone playing right now is playing on their free 20 day trial. It will be interesting to see how many of this < 400,000 people will continue to subscribe.
According to Square-Enix, Final Fantasy XI is the most profitable entry in the series.
(http://andriasang.com/con1mt/ffxi_profits/)
In the first month Square-Enix shipped 620000 units of Final Fantasy XIV, on a worldwide basis.
(http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31364/Square_Enix_Ships_630000_FFXIV_Copies_W
orking_On_Regaining_Trust.php)
According to Bioware, Star Wars The old republic needs 500000 subscribers to be profitable, again on a worldwide basis.
(http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/32784/EA_Old_Republic_MMO_To_Show_Profit_With
_500000_Subscribers.php)
With this in mind, I think selling between 360000 and 420000 units of Dragon Quest X in one week in Japan alone is pretty impressive. Remember that running an MMORPG in one country only generates a fraction of costs, it generates, when you run it on a worldwide basis.
To compare Dragon Quest X to Dragon Quest IX is comparing Apples to Oranges, nobody expected it to sell in the regions of a mainline Dragon Quest, this didn't happen for Ultima Online, it didn't happen for Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XIV, why should it happen with Dragon Quest.
(or if I'm feeling snarky, "Worst-selling Dragon Quest outsells best-selling PS Vita game 3:1")
I can see this swing either way at this point.