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Analyst: PS3 To Be Top Dog In September
by Leigh Alexander [PC, Console/PC, Mobile Console]
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October 8, 2009
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The PlayStation 3 was the best-selling console in September, its first time on top of the hardware charts since November 2006, says EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich, ahead of the month's NPD results.
September is also expected to bring something else we haven't seen in a long time, according to Divnich: Positive numbers. After seven straight months of year-over-year declines, things are starting to look healthy, he says, projecting a 16 percent gain in software sales to $715 million.
The boost is assisted by the fact the average selling price of video game software has inched up 10 percent, says the analyst; unit sales themselves are up only 6 percent, by his count. September saw more big sellers than the same month last year, however, as Divnich says 23 titles sold over 100,000 units, compared to over 18 in September 2008.
As for hardware, the year's slow decline in Wii hardware sales is proving a drag. Divnich says all platform sales are down 4 percent year over year -- although thanks to price cuts, every platform is expected to see increases except for the Wii and PSP.
Even the rhythm genre, on whose decline analysts spent a year speculating, looks like it's back in business thanks to both The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5. But even with all these positive signs, Divnich says it's still too soon to loosen the belt completely.
"While September is expected to post impressive year-over-year gains, we do not expect similar trends to continue in October," he warns. "Based upon EEDAR’s forecasts, October’s new releases would need to produce $225 million to post flat year-over-year comps. Currently, EEDAR projects high single digit growth in October, low double digit growth in November, and single digit growth in December."
Divnich also says EEDAR data shows less aggressive price promotions going on at retailers over the last 90 days, which suggests "retail sales are much healthier than in previous months, which has caused retailers to be more conservative with their discounts, a common side-effect of a bullish retail market."
"Overall, September sales and retail data indicates that the pre-holiday season is off to a good start," the analyst says, thanks to lower hardware prices and the launch of desirable titles. "These results will bring some much needed pressure relief to both publishers and retailers alike amidst concerns the economy may still have posed a threat to holiday season performance."
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"Oh snap"
Well, anyway, this is a good thing for Sony, as well as the market as a whole, because now developers shouldn't have to worry too much about install base.
Also, I'll just be happy for people to play much of the early PS3 library they've missed. Some really amazing things to play there.
Blu Ray is making huge head ways in market share vs DVD and is predicted to be a very hot ticket item this year for the Holidays. As HD TV's and Blu Ray equipment come down in price more people are looking at Blu Ray as a real option. The PS3 is still the best option for a Blu Ray player IMHO given the huge functionality of the system over stand alone movie players.
Ironically, though, Audio CDs work fine. Sony is being very hush-hush about it and acting like it is not their problem.
I also find it ironic that a chunk of PS3 owners are being tainted with this update right around the time the PS3 Slim was released. That part's probably more of a coincidence rather than a conspiracy.
I really think this should be investigated though.
Check Sony's forum if you don't believe me.
http://boardsus.playstation.com/playstation/board/message?board.id=ps3updates&th
read.id=113602
At the same time I would argue that if MS had countered with some sort of pricing response they could have mitigated some of Sony's momentum from their Slim model. Had the 20/60Gb model been reduced to $199, with the Arcade model eliminated, it could have offered some value. When you stack up the $299 Elite with the $299 Slim, the PS3 Slim is clearly the better value. Comparing a $199 Pro with a $299 Slim and the 360 would look more enticing to new adopters.
I think this is momentum that Sony can build upon to turn the tide for themselves.
Yes, we all ready had a very lengthy discussion about that very subject. Many people here are very skeptical of the firmware update being the ultimate culprit for the issues with the PS3. In fact, here is a link just in case you missed it.
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=25526
Personally I think it is so much FUD and the court case is going to get tossed out on it's ass.
Yea because Microsoft and Nintendo are simply going to lay down and die like the dogs they are.....oh wait! ;)
Let's see the sales of the games, then we can talk about who's truly the "Top Dog".