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Analyst: PS3 To Outsell Rival Consoles, Push 127M Units
Analyst: PS3 To Outsell Rival Consoles, Push 127M Units
March 8, 2010 | By Eric Caoili

March 8, 2010 | By Eric Caoili
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The Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices (SACHD) service have released a new report forecasting that PlayStation 3 hardware will eventually outsell Xbox 360 and Wii, expecting Sony's system to continue selling much longer than its rival home consoles.

The report, “Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition,” admits that Wii's hardware sales have so far eclipsed those of the PS3 and Xbox 360 but predicts that Sony's console will still be a commercial platform five years after the Wii is replaced. It expects that PS3's global lifetime sales will reach 127 million, compared to its prediction of 103 million Wii units.

Sony Computer Entertainment's chairman and CEO Kaz Hirai has previously described the PS3 as a ten-year console, one that it believes consumers will continue to purchase and use long after they replace their Xbox 360 and Wii systems with their successors.

"Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii in bringing console games to new audiences,” says SACHD principal analyst and the report's author David Mercer. "But its sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014."

SACHD also anticipates that the global installed base of home consoles will reach over 220 million by the end of the year, but its models indicate that the ownership of current systems will peak in 2011. At that point, the firm believes vendors will "need to introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth."

"Console industry cycles have given the industry major planning challenges for many years," says Mercer. "There are signs that this volatility may be moderating as platforms add home entertainment and social networking services beyond pure gaming."


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Comments


Groove Stomp
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I'm confused how the PS3 and Xbox 360 will hit their highest userbase numbers between 2012 and 2014, yet ownership of current systems will peak in 2011 requiring a shift to newer systems to maintain industry growth.

Does this mean the analysts suspect current Wii owners will start buying PS3s and Xbox 360s?



I'm also curious as to how others view this info. I'm certainly no analyst, so I can't argue what they're saying. With that said, I originally planned on getting a PS3, but due to personal financials wound up indefinitely postponing until eventually receiving a Wii as a gift. I now find myself satisfied with the Wii, with no desire to get a PS3, Xbox 360 or any of their motion-controlled derivatives in the future. I wonder if I'm unique in this regard?

kevin wright
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The analysts are always right- they did a good job of predicting our econmy as it currently stands, the housing market, the stock exchange, that the gaming industry was recession proof...oh wait. They missed all that (or rather, all except the doom sayers). But this time, they are right for sure!

Merc Hoffner
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Projecting that far out for current Microsoft and Sony systems requires their personal certainty that Nintendo's next system (or additional influences from apple, google and onlive etc.) will have no significant effect - a dangerous guess for a professional prognosticator. Moreover I'm quite confident that analysing the analysts would reveal a consistent trend of being wrong when Nintendo are involved in long term and even mid term predicitons. I project this trend will reamin consistent here and sustained in the near future.

Jason Hales
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I am not sure the PS3 will out sell the wii, but I can understand the Analysist reasoning, because the PS3 has more staying power than the wii, the wii will soon or later slow down in sells. The PS3 is only starting, this year has so many good PS3 games and is selling over the xbox 360 right now. 2009 had a great ending with Uncharted 2 and than PS3 started 2010 with Heavy Rain, and next is GOW 3. And this is just the first quater of 2010 and 2 big titles for PS3, and than FF13 can be included which is clearly better on the PS3 and which most fans of FF are use to it on sony will go towards buying a PS3. Sony has some big games still coming out for 2010 and it will keep selling well. I see 2010 the year the PS3 gets over the xbox 360 and will keep doing well for future years to come.

Jonathan Gilmore
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I'm not sure how the PS3 is going to pass the 360 in 2010 if as of February the 360 continues to outsell the PS3 (according to NPD) and has a roughly 8 million console lead. Is the PS3 going to outsell the 360 by more than 8 million units from March through December?

Kevin Jones
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@ TheWon Jodecideion



:'Price is not a problem anymore."



Why not?

The PS3 is still selling for a pretty high $300, no?

You seem to forget that the PS2 launched at $300, and sales did not really take off till the PS2 hit $200 and below. Over 90% of PS2 sales were after PS2 price hit $200 and under.

Of course price is an issue. Between the PS3 price cut in Septmeber 2009, and January 2010, PS3 sales shot up by 89%.

If you were to cut PS3 price to $200 today, sales will at least increase by 50%.





"Will the 100 million PS2 gamers of the generation finally decided to purchase a new system.

Why will they all of a sudden buy one then"



First of all, the PS2 now has an install base of 140 million, not 100 million.

Secondly, as I pointed out above, most PS2 owners bought their PS2's at $200 or under, so of course it makes sense that a lot of PS2 owners would uprade to the PS3, when the PS3 hits $200 or under as well.



As for the prediction on who will win this generation of consoles, that is still open to question.

Kevin Jones
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@ Jonathan Gilmore



"I'm not sure how the PS3 is going to pass the 360 in 2010 if as of February the 360 continues to outsell the PS3 (according to NPD) and has a roughly 8 million console lead. Is the PS3 going to outsell the 360 by more than 8 million units from March through December? "



Worldwide Hardware Install base (End of 2009) - from company earnings reports:

Wii - 67.45 million

Xbox 360 - 38.7 million

PS3 - 33.5 million



The 360 is ahead of the PS3 by 5.2 million as at the end of December 2009.

The 360 has continuesd to outsell the PS3 in the US by about 50,000 per month so far, while the PS3 continues to outsell the 360 by approx 100,000 per month in Japan. Net, we have a PS3 advantage of approx 50,000 per month, making approx 600,000- 800,000 extra PS3's sold for this year.

The 360 outsells the PS3 in the UK and probably in the Scandinavian countries as well on a weekly basis, while the PS3 outsells the 360 in the rest of Europe. Adding in everything, I'd say the PS3 closes up on the 360 by at most 1.5 million this year, and the 360 ends the year ahead by at least 3.5 million if not more.

If Natal really takes off, all bets are off, and the 360 ends the year still ahead of the PS3 by between 4 and 5 million units.

Jonathan Gilmore
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@ Kevin, thanks for clarifying, I just did a couple of web searches and was not nearly as thorough or accurate. I think its fair to say that pre-Natal the PS3 has a little more momentum right now, but even 5.2 million is a pretty big gap for it to overcome in 12 months.

Jason Hales
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Good points about the sales, remember that Natal price is over 100 dollars, I don't see it doing that well, because if you are going to buy into xbox 360 now with natal you are paying over a PS3, is Natal really improving the xbox 360 over the PS3. Remember sony has been using the eyetoy with the PS2 and it really is close to Natal and now it is adding the wand which is saying will just improve the use of the eyetoy. I am not sure if Natal or the wand will do well, but can't imagine Natal dramatically improving xbox sells.

I do see PS3 doing well, remember also those sales for Japan had FF13 out on the PS3, March we are seeing two huge games for the PS3 in GOW and FF, both are common games for sony and will only help improve sales for the PS3.

Ronaldo Fernandes
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I understand that analyst are paid to present their reports. This one was freely given and its price seems to be an indicative of the quality.



I am no analyst but I always understood that ps3's ten year cycle included the period after the release of ps4 and the shifting to the low price market. Adding the fact Sony might be still loosing money with each unit, I doubt that, no matter how many units they sell, they would make a good profit from this generation.



There is a misconception about the notion of ps2 users upgrading to the ps3. The ps2 was unique in the sense it was able to gather both the core and the casual markets. The casual market belongs to Nintendo this generation and those people will buy a blu-ray player but not a ps3. I doubt Sony will ever get close to last generation numbers this time.

Bob Bob
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Did Gamasutra post this to humor its readers? It certainly amuses me that Nintendo sales are always about to fall drastically, and this just after they had record numbers in December and continue to outsell the competition. Doesn't matter, sales completely halt any day now! Comedy gold. If it wasn't so sad that someone actually got paid for this (or wants to be paid for similar quality analysis), and the fact that Gamasutra adds credibility by posting this nonsense.

Thomas Lo
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People need to pay attention before they bring in their fanboyism. Noone expects the Wii to have very long legs, even Nintendo. It doesn't really need to either since it was profitable console-alone out of the gate. But third-party sales have been disappointing to say the least on the Wii and it is doubtful whether companies can justify large marketing and development pushes on the wii given its track record. The article is still predicting 103 million Wii's sold, nothing to laugh at, but with Wii sales slowing (at least in software) already, its not a stretch to say the Wii won't last.



Sony has a vested interest in keeping the PS3 alive for a long time. It is a great delivery vector for Blu-Ray and in terms of brand has a justifiably higher ceiling of sales than its competitor over the long run (at least in the mind of many analysts).



360 sales are high but Microsoft plays scorched earth in trying to keep its market share in the United States. It is selling a 300 dollar bundle with both the latest forza and halo right now to try and outdo the 299 PS3. It is hard to see whether Microsoft can maintain its sales given that Natal has no killer apps announced (software matters) and the lack of any exclusive triple-A content other than Halo.



It isn't a stretch to say that the likeliest "winner" in terms of sales will be the PS3. Suffice it to say though given the slow start of the PS3, that milestone will likely be achieved when the xbox 720, wii 2.0, and ps4 are duking it out already.

Dv8thwonder GunplayNotoy
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This "analysis" sounds mote like a paid advertisement.

Leon T
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Thomas it is a stretch to say that the PS3 will win in sales. That's like saying that the xbox would have won last generation if the ps2 didn't sell after the ps3 was released and the xbox passed the ps2's install base. That is just silly.



Why would the ps3 keep selling anyway? It is not the cheapest bluray player and it has the weakest software sales of the 3 consoles.



The fact is that the console with the largest install base usually keeps selling if it is kept on the market. The NES kept selling long after the SNES release. The PS1 kept selling long after the PS2 release and we know the PS2 is still selling. What would stop the Wii from selling once the Wii 2 was released beyond Nintendo stopping production?

Bob Bob
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> People need to pay attention before they bring in their fanboyism.



Should've taken your own advice.

Prash Nelson-Smythe
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THE ANALYST'S JOB: To produce high-quality paid information for paying clients.

THE CLIENT'S JOB: To use this information to gain a competitive advantage. This implies keeping the information private.



So why are we, the masses, receiving this expensive information for free? Well, we're not.



THE CLIENT'S OTHER JOB: To influence investors into thinking that their games/consoles are doing well.

THE ANALYST'S OTHER JOB: To act as PR and produce free press releases (falsely titled "reports") and hand them out to game journalists.

THE GAME JOURNALIST'S JOB: To unthinkingly reproduce the juicy parts and post for many page views and comments. Everybody wins!



But what if...



THE GAME JOURNALIST'S JOB: Review the press release critically, while perhaps systematically assessing the predictive quality of previous press releases, and get even more page views and comments by being the first site to do this.



Well Eric Caoili? I'm throwing down the gauntlet.

Robert Green
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@ Jason: "Good points about the sales, remember that Natal price is over 100 dollars"



Really? They haven't announced a price and most recent estimates are well below that. Pachter also made the good point that Natal has an advantage over Sony's wand in that it can be used in addition to a standard controller, where Sony's wand is an all-or-nothing situation.



As for the conclusion of the article, I'd say it's possible, but I don't see it being that likely. The reason is that, as others have noted above, none of the consoles are that far into mass-market prices ($200US is borderline), and Sony will undoubtedly get their last, since they're still losing money on each PS3 sold at $300US. What this really means is that any time Sony get ahead (assuming they do), the competition can probably afford to cut prices a little to catch up.

I do suspect that this console generation, while maybe not lasting 10 years, will last a lot longer than the traditional 5. The reasons for this are numerous, but mostly the higher than normal launch prices, a global recession and the fact that few developers can actually afford to make a game for a console much more powerful than the current ones, which are already requiring budgets in the tens of millions for AAA games.

sam darley
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This seems to assume that Microsoft and Nintendo are both going to abandon their current consoles in the near future. Yes, Microsoft have a long and well-documented history of cutting off every console they've ever made after about 4 years (sarcasm! One console, one brief lifespan for well-known reasons), and Nintendo are obviously going to just take the Wii out back and shoot it simply because it's physically impossible to print larger and larger value bank notes (I hear they're contemplating just starting their own country and currency: Nintendollars) to contain their vast wealth.



So, no, I don't think that the proposed '10 year lifespan' will somehow swing sales in Sony's favour, certainly not if the competition is also running to the same finish line.

Fiore Iantosca
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I always like to put up this graphic -

http://media.photobucket.com/image/ps3%20chalkboard/Deathcloak/PS
3chalkboard.png

Ken Masters
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So the PS3 is poised to quadruple its installed base a full THREE years after its been out on the market. The idea is so ridiculous I don't know whether to laugh or facepalm. The PS3 took over three years to reach just over a forth of that projected 127 million figure and yet it's gonna strap on a nuclear-propelled rocket and sell just under 100 million units out of nowhere. Even with a price cut to $199 and $99, it won't reach those numbers. This will probably be the PS3's peak year.



I'm still trying to find out why this type of nonsense is so consistently entertained here at Gamasutra. Perhaps the site staff indulge in the same wishful thinking as the analysts - it's the only reason I can think of.



Yet, the Wii's December NPD alone was comparable to the PS3's entire 2009 YTD - yet the Wii will fail any day now. This comedy is never-ending! The HD consoles will see super sales in the coming years, while the Wii will die.



- Where are these HD super-sales supposed to be coming from in 2012 - 2014?



- It seems no one wants to admit the fact that the CONSUMER that determines how long the PS3 will remain a viable platform, not Sony.



- Why is Nintendo doomed because "sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets"? The Expanded Audience is almost infintely bigger than the niche "mature/hardcore" audience. And second, since when is data divided into mature and non-mature categories for the above quote to be deemed true beyond some arbitrary measure?



And I agree, it would be awesome if we had journalists who actually had the ability to think critically instead of just regurgitating analyst's diarrhea-of-the-mouth, as Mr. Nelson-Smythe mentioned above.

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters





:"So the PS3 is poised to quadruple its installed base a full THREE years after its been out on the market. "



The PS3 launched at a massive $500 and $600 price, no? So the lowest priced PS3 was selling at $200 higher than the PS2 launch price of $300.

No console, that launched at anywhere near such a high price, has even come close to selling as many units as the PS3 has. 3DO comes to mind. You are not going to sell a whole lot of consoles at $600.





" The PS3 took over three years to reach just over a forth of that projected 127 million figure and yet it's gonna strap on a nuclear-propelled rocket and sell just under 100 million units out of nowhere"



The PS3 has taken 3 years to sell 33.5 millon units, at prices ranging from $600 to the current $300, which is still the same as the PS2 launch price. Now even if the PS3 continued to sell at exactly the same rate as it did in the first 3 years, PS3 total sales at the end of 10 years(same as the current lifespan of the PS2), will total 111 million units.

Now, given that the PS3 was selling for $500 and $600 when it was launched, and PS3 sales have rocketed up since the price was cut to $300 in September last year, and given that the PS3 selling price is still as high as the PS2 launch price, and given that there will be even more price cuts for the PS3, its virtually guaranteed that the PS3 will end up selling more than that 111 million units in total by the end of 10 years.





" Even with a price cut to $199 and $99, it won't reach those numbers."



If the PS3 sells at exactly the same rate in the next 7 years, as it did in the first 3 years, it ends up seling a total of 111 million units. That's not that far removed from the 127 million figure that this analyst is predicting is it?



" This will probably be the PS3's peak year"



No.

The PS3 will hit it's peak years after it hits $200 and lower, just like the PS2 did.



"Yet, the Wii's December NPD alone was comparable to the PS3's entire 2009 YTD - yet the Wii will fail any day now. "



In the US, not in Japan or Europe.

Plus the PS3 registered a much bigger increase in NPD sales from September to December than the Wii did.

Fiore Iantosca
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"I'm still trying to find out why this type of nonsense is so consistently entertained here at Gamasutra. Perhaps the site staff indulge in the same wishful thinking as the analysts - it's the only reason I can think of."



Because they know it will generate lots of comments and discussion here LOL ;)



Excellent post, I agree with pretty much all you've stated.

Kevin Jones
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@ Jason Hales



"remember that Natal price is over 100 dollars,"



No.

Michael Pachter is predicting that Natal will be selling for between $50 and $75, leaning more towards $50.

Microsoft already took out the processor from Natal to make it even more cost effective.

Plus Natal will come bundled with the 360, guranteeing big Natal install base in pretty short order.





" Remember sony has been using the eyetoy with the PS2 and it really is close to Natal and now "



The eyetoy is not even on the same planet as Natal. It's like comparing a Lada to a Ferrari.

Romi May
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Only 2436 days left till the launch of PS4 ....Release date 11/11/2016



It will have Octet core at 8GHz,

1Gb DDR10 Graphics ram,

Virtual reality headset glasses.

A photo quality graphics games engine.(current gen only a practise)

Wireless connection to satellite broadband at 1Gb per sec

5Tb Solid state disk storage.

Integrated 1080p HD freesat - PVR function

USB version 5

And games will be totally free paid for by adverts in games.

Ken Masters
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So I did a little google research on SACHD (lol @ that acronym!) and here's what I found:



Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)

Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)

Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)

Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)

Total - 198.6 million





Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)

Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)

Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)

Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)

Total - 204.8 million



So it's safe to say that these guys FAIL at predictions and analysis, they've had the PS3 in the ballpark of ~120mil since '05, and they're delusional for not lowering that PS3 prediction a long time ago.

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters



Those predictions are probably from before the PS3 and the Wii were launched.

No one, but no one, got their predictions right from that time. Not even Nintendo predicted they were going to sell as many Wii's as they have, before the Wii was launched.

However, after 3 years on the market for the PS3 and the Wii, it's much easier to get a handle on PS3 sales for the next few years.

Liks I said in my earlier post, even if the PS3 continues to sell at the same rate that it did in the first 3 years, it would have sold 111 million by the end of 10 years of PS3 sales. It's not really that outlandish a prediction.

Ken Masters
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You really think PS3 will continue to sell the same amount of units from here on out for the next six years to reach 111mil., Kevin? You're usually always wrong, I know. But I don't think even you can be that delusional.

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters



" You really think PS3 will continue to sell the same amount of units from here on out for the next six years to reach 111mil., Kevin? "



Not only that, the PS3 will probably sell 50% more in the next 3 years than they did in the first 3 years. PS3 sales since the price cut in September last year, have been 89% higher than the year before.



"You're usually always wrong, I know. "



Chortle!

I was right enough to know that MW2 will totally blow NSMB(Wii) sales out of the water, with plenty of room to spare.

Today, 5 months after launch, MW2 is STILL outselling NSMB(Wii) in the UK on a weekly bases, despite MW2 selling a staggering 1.23 million units in just one day, and 1.78 million units in it's first week alone.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/27551/Battlefield_Bad_Company_
2_Dominates_UK_Sales_Charts.php



Just today, Activison has come out with figutres showing that MW2 has a staggering 25 million unique users online. So much for your prediction of NSMB(Wii) outselling MW2. You are the one that has been blowing smoke, and have been wrong on every prediction, not me.



"But I don't think even you can be that delusional."



Look, I know rabid Nintendo fanboys cannot be rational, but even you, should know that PS3 sales this year, at $300 per unit, will be far more than PS3 sales in 2007, when the PS3 was selling for a very high $500 and $600. Since the price cut in September last year alone, PS3 sales have alreday shot up by 89% on a year on year basis..

You are delusional if you think PS3 sales this year, will be less than PS3 sales in 2007 or 2008.

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel.

You again, with your half baked nonsense huh?

Let's see if we can take you apart..yet again.



:You can't compare prices like that over a long period"



Yes I can.





"you have to adjust those prices for inflation"



No I don't.

Look at the prices of PC's. Today, PC's cost far, far less than they did back in 2000, when the PS2 was luanched, despite inflation. And that is dspite PC's today beng far more powerful than PC's in 2000.

Why?

Answer : Because of Moore's law. The prices of RAM, CPU's GPU's etc have all fallen sharply since 2000.

Game consoles are basically like personal computers. They have a CPU, GPU, memory, motherboards, power supply etc and an operating sistem. Game console prices today can be compared to game console prices in 2000. The only thing is, the prices today should be LOWER than the prices back in 2000(just like for PC's), because of Moore's law and the very sharp fall in the prices of electronic components.

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



:Sure, and if the Wii continues to sell the same rate in the next 7 years, as it did in the first 3 years, it ends up selling a total of 226 million units"



The only trouble with that your little storty is that PS3 sales shot up last year in the US and Japan, while Wii sales FELL last year in both the US and Japan. As a matter of fact, Wii sales in the US have been down in 9 out of the last 10 months.





"If the 360 continues to sell at the same rate in the next 6 years, as it did in the first 4 years, it ends up selling a total of 96.5 million units"



The 360 had had it's best year worldwide last year. The Wii had it's worst year in Japan last year, and sold fewer units in the US last year than it did in 2008. Wii sales worldwide have been going down, even as PS3 worldwide sales have shot up. Both the PS3 and the Wii had price cuts last year, but then the PS3 increased sales last year, while the Wii DEcreassed sales last year.



"In the past no console sold as much in it's years 4-10, then it did in the first 3 years"



In the past, the PS2 didn't launch at $600. It launched at $300 and had a price cut to $200 just 18 months after launch.

The sweet spot for console sales is NOT $500 or $600. No console ever sold much at a $600 price..ever.

The PS3 has only just hit $300 in September last year, so it's now at the same point as when the PS2 was launched. When the PS3 hits $200, it will follow a similar sales trajectory as the PS2 did. It's all about prices and games. The PS3 game library is now great, all that is left is for the PS3 to hit the mass market price point.

Try selling the Wii at $600 (like the PS3 was at launch) and see how many units the Wii sells.

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



:"You read here on Gamasutra, in the same article, that posted, that MW2 has 25 million unique multiplayer users, it sold close to 12 million units?"



Chortle!

Now why don't we look at MW2 sales by country eh?



As at the end of January we have:



US NPD sales total for MW2 (PS3/360, excluding PC retail and Steam sales)) : 9.41 million

NSMB sales : 4.89 million



UK:

First 13 weeks Modern Warfare 2 (360, PS3, PC) UK sales based on first week, up to February 11 from Charttrack:



Weeks:

1 - 1,780,000

2 - 249,000 (-86%)

3 - 169,000 (-32%)

4 - 158,000 ( -7%)

5 - 140,000 (-11%

6 - 144,000 ( +3%)

7 - 169,000 (+17%)

8 - 100,000 (-41%)

9 - 59,000 (-41%)

10 - 49,000 (-17%)

11 - 44,000 (-10%)

12 - 43,000 (-3%)

13 - 38,000 (-12%



Total - 3.2m



If we assume that MW2 has sold at least another 100,000 in the 4 week since Feb 11, we have 3.3 million MW2 units in total sold in the UK alone.



Adding the UK and the US, gives us: 12.71 million MW2 copies sold in the US and the UK together, yes?



Now the UK is one third of the European video games market so going by that, MW2 would have sold another 6 million units in the rest of Europe outside the UK (going by 3.3 million units sold in the UK alone).

Add 6 million to 12.71, and you have 18.71 million units sold, no?



Then we have Canada, which is approx 10% of the US market, and has similar tastes in games. 10% of 9 million gives you 900,000. Add that and you have 19.61 million units sold, no?

Now we haven't added in the Japan, Australia and the rest of the world yet. Plus Steam sales or retail PC sales in the US.



We are still looking at over 19 million MW2 units sold as compared to Nintendo own figures of 10 million NSMB sold as at the end of January. We'll be generous and give them another million, making 11 million NSMB(wii) sold in total.

MW2 sales totally BLOWS NSMB(Wii) out of the water, with plenty of time left over to go have a cigar.

Kevin Jones
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"You can't just say one console is up and one is down, you have to take into account"



I can, because one console IS up, and the other console IS down.

Plus one console IS incresing sales year on year, and the other consle is DEcreasing sales.

If you want to to talk console sales in the next 3 years, its whether one console's sales are increasing or not, and the other console's sales are going down or not.



"that's just because the japanese video game market crashed"



That never stopped the PS3 from increasing sales by a massive 50% last year in Japan did it?

The Wii's Japan sales last year fell sharply though.





"Then you will see, that the PS3 is Up Year on Year in Japan, but with very small numbers in total"



Ummm..PS3 sales in Japan last year, were pretty close to Wii sales in Japan last year. For this year, they two consoles are going to be pretty close in sales. The days when the Wii was outselling the PS3 by 5 :1 every week are gone forever.





"Right now, Sony is loosing tons of money with every PS3 sold"



Ummm.. NO.

The PS3 is very close to breaking even on hardware right now. According to Sony, when you add in software, the PS3 business, is now profitable overall. You must have missed Sony's last earnings report.



"Don't know, what are trying to say, the Wii never sold for $600, nobody ever tried to sell it for this price. "



That's precisely my point.

That is why the PS3 at $300 and later at $200, will sell more than it did when it was priced at $600 in 2007.

Prash Nelson-Smythe
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Kevin Jones,



The claim that any console will most of its units in years 4-10 is very bold and unusual. That claim is the one that must justify itself and defend its position. Assuming that sales rates will remain constant or continue to grow at their previous rate is a massive failure of inductive reasoning. It is like saying the days have been getting shorter from June to December so they will continue to get shorter in January, February, March etc. It goes against what we know to be a common pattern.



You state that the PS3 will probably sell 50% more in the next 3 year period compared to the last without any real supporting evidence, when it is a claim that requires a lot.



People often assume PS2 users will naturally progress to the PS3, but why? There must have been a large and varied PS2 userbase. They clearly did not all buy 360's or PS3's. Did they buy Wiis? Did they stick with their PS2s? Did they stop playing games? We don't know but we can't assume that they are customers in waiting for a PS3 as other options may have been more enticing for them.



You are keen to enjoy the fact that MW2 has currently sold more than NSMBW at the moment, but no one ever said that it wouldn't. They simply said that eventually NSMBW would sell more copies. Since it has only been out for 4 months it is hardly a good time to judge that statement. The evidence for this as there is a recent history of evergreen Wii Nintendo titles and other games in the Super Mario Bros series that have sold massive amounts. It would be good to look at this a year after release, so in November 2010.

Fábio Bernardon
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@Kevin Jones

"Yes I can."



Sure you can. But it has the side effect of completely removing any credibility you had. After all, the Dollar is a very stable currency that has absolutely no inflation over time, right? Oh, wait...

Kevin Jones
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@ Fábio Bernardon





:"But it has the side effect of completely removing any credibility you had"



Stating facts doesn't remove credibility. It butresses credibility.

However, in the unthinking, "Nintendo can do no wrong", bizarro world of rabid Nintendo fanboyism of course, things are usually turned the other way round.

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



:"From where does these numbers come? "



From Charttrack of course.

Where else?



"As far as I know Chart Track numbers are only made available to paying customers"



You don't know much do you?

Now why don't you go back to the Charttrack site right now, and start reading the Charttrack blurb, from the week when MW2 was launched in November, up to the week of Feb 11. You will notice that they started off by giving the exact number of copies of MW2 sold in the very first week of MW2 sales, then followed up for the next 13 weeks telling you by what percentage sales fell or rose. After that, its very elementary to use basic arithmetic, to arrive at the figures.

That's some homework for you. Go do it, then you can come back and talk.

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel





:"Just an assumption, to me it seems, "



It happens to be fact. If anything , the UK market is a bit lower than 33% of the Eurpean games market, so therefore I may be understimating MW2 European sales here.



"the title sold especially well in UK, better, than in other countries, e.g. germany, the biggest gaming market in europe,"



Ummm..Germany is NOT the biggest games market in Europe. The UK is by far the biggest gaming market in Europe. That is why the UK accounts for just under 33% of the European gaming market.

What you could say though, is that Germany has higher PC game sales, and that MW2 sold more on the PC in Germany than even in the UK, where by far most MW2 sales were on the PS3 and the 360.





" but then again, we don't have numbers for the european region."



We know the UK is just under one third of the European games market. If a game sold 3.3 million units in the UK, we can estimate that the game sold approx 6 milion units in the rest of Europe.

Equally, we know that Canada is about one tenth of the US market, so if a game sold 9 milion in the US, then it probabloy sold around 900,000 in Canada.

Kevin Jones
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@ Prash Nelson-Smythe





"The claim that any console will most of its units in years 4-10 is very bold and unusual '



Nothing bold about it.

The PS3 started it's 4th year in November 2009, and it's already having it's best year ever by far.

December 2009 NPD sales blew every other PS3 December out of the water. Same with November.

This is the first year that the PS3 is selling at the same price as the PS2 launch price of $300. Most PS2 sales tokk pace after it hit the $200 price point and under.





"Assuming that sales rates will remain constant or continue to grow at their previous rate is a massive failure of inductive reasoning"



I doubt if you even have a clue what "inductive reasoning" means.

But hey, feel free to parrot empty statemnats that don't make any sense.



"You state that the PS3 will probably sell 50% more in the next 3 year period compared to the last without any real supporting evidence"



Umm... I sited the evidence of PS3 sales having already shot uop by 89%, year on year, since the PS3 had a price cut in September last year, and the fact that the PS2 experienced its greatest sales after it hit the $200 price point. I don't see why the PS3 can't do the same.





"People often assume PS2 users will naturally progress to the PS3, but why? There must have been a large and varied PS2 userbase. "



No one said ALL PS2 users would migrate to the PS3, but then most PS2 users will buy a PS3 when the PS3 hits the same $200 price point that they originally bought their PS2 for.

Why? Because the PS3 has the same games they they bought the PS2 for. Of course the 360 and the Wii will grab some PS2 users, but then again, the PS3 will get some now users who never owned a PS2 before as werll. It all workd out fine for everyone.





"You are keen to enjoy the fact that MW2 has currently sold more than NSMBW at the moment, but no one ever said that it wouldn't. They simply said that eventually NSMBW would sell more copies."



It won't.





"The evidence for this as there is a recent history of evergreen Wii Nintendo titles and other games in the Super Mario Bros series that have sold massive amounts. "



Ummm..MW2 has already outsold every single Wii game ever in the UK, including Wii Play, Wii Fit and ario Kart..and that was after just 4 months.

In the US, MW2 has already outsold every singe Wii game apart from Wii Play.

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



:"No.

Source: http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2009/08/germany-becomes-europes-lar
gest-videogame-

market/"



Ummm yes.

"Nielsen said UK gamers led spending with €2.3 billion ($3.6 billion), with France following at €1.6 billion ($2.5 billion), Germany at €1.4 billion ($2.1 billion), Spain at €700 million ($1.1 billion), and Italy at €600 million ($0.9 billion)."

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6191774.html

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



If we went by these figures from Gamespot:

"Further delineating that $11 billion haul, Nielsen said UK gamers led spending with €2.3 billion ($3.6 billion), "

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6191774.html



The UK's precentage will be ( 3.6/11) * 100 = 32.72% = approx one third.

Ken Masters
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@ Kevin Jones:



- You were WRONG about NSMBWii sales - predicting they would take a Super Mario Galaxy-esque sales curve.

- You were WRONG about the PS3 outselling the Wii in Japan in 2009 "with plenty of room to spare".



You disappeared for two months after those two embarrassments. Nobody forgot though!



You will eventually be wrong about NSMBWii and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and you'll most certainly be wrong about the PS3 selling 111million. You'd have to be insane to predict that.

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters



Yiou werwe WONG about MW2 not having any legs. It's STILL oyeslling NSMB(Wii) in the UK and plenty of Eurpopean countries, a good 4 months after launch.

You were WRONG about about NSMB(Wii) outselling MW2 by now.

You will still be wrong about NSMB(Wii) EVER outselling MW2 come 10 years time if you arev still here.



MW2 has ALREADY outsold every single Wii game in the UK that was ever launched.

And MW2 has already outsold every single Wii game in the US as well, apart from Wii Play, which people buy moslty for the Wiimote controller.



"You disappeared for two months after those two embarrassments. Nobody forgot though"



Chortle!

You wish!

You were the one that swore I'd dissappear when NSMB outsold MW2. As it turns out, it's you that will be forced to run away with your tail between your legs as your hopes of a NSMB comeback continue to collapse..

MW2 has already blown the sales of every single Wii game out of the water already in the US and the UK(save for Wii Play in the US), and its still selling.

The chances of a comeback from NSMB(Wii) are currently looking like Saddam Hussein ever coming back from the dead

Ken Masters
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@ Kevin:



I never said it wouldn't have legs. I said it wouldn't have legs as strong as NSMBWii. And MW2 has had exceptionally strong legs in Europe. But don't think I didn't notice how you always cherrypick Europe in a debate about legs between NSMBWii and MW2 while ignoring the US and Japan.



Also, Kevin, you have to realize that no one ever expected NSMBWii to outsell MW2 initially. I expect it to outsell MW2 after a LONG period of time. I've explained that to you over and over again but you purposely ignore that fact! You constantly make up conditions in retrospect to make it seem like you've won. The fact is we have to wait and see! And I've been posting consistently and even called you out on your hiatus. A lot of commentors did actually!



The fact that we're even having this debate over a game on two systems vs. a game on just one system goes to show just how dominate a force Nintendo is!



But enough of this debate for now. Let's stick to this propaganda piece of an analysis.

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters



:"I never said it wouldn't have legs"



Chortle!

You really crack me up. You do.





"And MW2 has had exceptionally strong legs in Europe. But don't think I didn't notice how you always cherrypick Europe in a debate about legs between NSMBWii and MW2"



Yeah?

Why don't we look at the US then?

US NPD sales total for MW2 (PS3/360, excluding PC retail and Steam sales) up to January : 9.41 million

NSMB sales : 4.89 million

Oops!

NSMB (Wii) gets smoked again!



" I expect it to outsell MW2 after a LONG period of time. "



It won't, given that MW2 has already outsold every Wii game every launched in the UK, and has also outsold every Wii game ever launched in the US apart from Wii Play which people buy mostly for the Wiimote.

As a matter of fact, MW2 has outsold the same NSMB on the DS in both the US and the UK, and the DS has a much bigger install base than the Wii, no?

If NSMB on the DS can't even outsell MW2 in the UK and the US, how do you suppose the same game on the Wii is going to do that, with an install base that is much smaller?

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



:"The funny thing is, we don't have valid numbers for europe at all. "



We have valid numbers for the UK..from Charttrack.

We went through this already in an earlier post.

Ken Masters
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- Kevin



If you can give me a link to the direct quote where I said MW2 wouldn't have legs, I'll admit I was wrong. So the burden of proof is on you. I, on the other hand, can give you links to where you owned yourself if you like!



And please, Kevin. We all see through your strawmen. The conversation was about *LEGS* not LTD sales in the US. We all know that MW2 has CURRENTLY sold more units across the HD consoles than NSMBWii. My point was that NSMBWii has showed much better legs from launch to present than MW2 has in the US. Don't try to switch the metric to make it seem like you "won" again! It's getting old, Kevin.



Anyways, I'm done with that topic until later this year.

Ken Masters
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And Chart-Track just gives rankings week in and week out - not figures. Every now and again they'll release hard sales data.



@ Kevin -



Can you please provide a link for those PS3 sales you're quoting please?

Kevin Jones
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@ Christian Keichel



:"Yes we did and we learned, that we have the numbers of one european country, not even from europe's biggest videogames market. "



More like you learned that we DO have MW2 figures for the UK market, contrary to what your claimed.

Meanwhile, the smaller the precentage of the UK market in relation to the rest of Europe, the higher MW2 sales in Europe will be in relation to the UK figures. That would only go to make my case even stronger.

As it happens, MW2 is still in the top 5 of the German PC games charts, even after 4 months on the market, and even without Steam sales being added.

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters



"And Chart-Track just gives rankings week in and week out - not figures. Every now and again they'll release hard sales data"



Charttrack gave us the number of MW2's sold in the first week of release (1.78 milion units sold), no?

After that, they kept giving us the percentage decrease or increase in sales every week for the first 13 weeks, no?

All you had to do was use simple arithmemtic to get the figures, which I did for the first 13 weeks:



Here ya go:



Weeks:

1 - 1,780,000

2 - 249,000 (-86%)

3 - 169,000 (-32%)

4 - 158,000 ( -7%)

5 - 140,000 (-11%

6 - 144,000 ( +3%)

7 - 169,000 (+17%)

8 - 100,000 (-41%)

9 - 59,000 (-41%)

10 - 49,000 (-17%)

11 - 44,000 (-10%)

12 - 43,000 (-3%)

13 - 38,000 (-12%



Total - 3.2m



Easy. See?

Ken Masters
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Try to read Kevin, please. I said for give me the figures for the PS3, not MW2. You just can't let it go can you!? lol!

Kevin Jones
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@ Ken Masters



:"The conversation was about *LEGS* not LTD sales in the US. "



No.

The conversation has always been about which game will sell more in total, legs plus right out of the gate sales and everything else.





"We all know that MW2 has CURRENTLY sold more units across the HD consoles than NSMBWii."



MW2 has sold more on the 360 alone in the US than NSMB(Wii), not just acrosss the HD consoles. Same in the UK.





"My point was that NSMBWii has showed much better legs from launch to present than MW2 has in the US."



It hasn't.

The two games sold within 70,000 of each other in January, and within 71,000 of each other in December.



December:

MW 2: 2.75 mllion

NSMB : 2.82 million

Difference : 71, 000



January:



MW2 : 585, 700

NSMB : 656,700

Difference : 71, 000



Where is the "better legs" at?





" Don't try to switch the metric to make it seem like you "won" again! "



I DID win again.

You are yet to win even one round in the MW2 versus NSMB(Wii) fight.

The way things are going, you never will.

Arne Gleason
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If analysts were paid only after they were right, the profession wouldn’t exist. Their projections are alchemy and everything that comes after is a rationalization (e.g. “I was actually right if you subtract out all the ways I was wrong”). I think the comments here show that we’d all miss them if they were gone, though.

Prash Nelson-Smythe
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Kevin,



You repeatedly state that MW2 has outsold everything on the Wii except for Wii Play. What figure are you using for life to date MW2 sales and what figure are you using for Wii Fit and where do they come from? Cheers.



I ask because I see stories from June 2009 station Wii Fit reaching 20 million sales and this is with three months of sales to go before Wii Fit Plus. Your estimate for MW2 that you claim to be conservative comes to 19 million. It only excludes Japan (who don't play FPS games), Australia (Small population of ~20 million) and some PC sales. So how does this guarantee that it outsells Wii Fit?



And don't you think it would be better if we avoided any region specific arguments? We are only talking about total world sales here. Saying that MW2 beats NSMBW by x percent in the UK is as irrelevant as the other truth that NSMBW is selling literally 10 times as much as MW2 in Japan.

Jonathan Gilmore
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Reading through the very intensely debated issue of NSMBWii and MW2 sales I am struck by how much energy went into both sides of the debate. I am also impressed at Kevin Jones defending his position, very intelligently I might add, against frequest posters in Nintendo related topics Prash and Christian, and also Ken Masters (where's Ephraim?). Not that I don't think Prash and the others made some valid points. Note: Calling Kevin a "kid" is about the opposite of a valid point.



It might be something of an intuition but I think the trends in recent sales numbers do support that the PS3 is on an upswing, the 360 is more or less holding steady, and the Wii growth curve is leveling out and may soon be declining. I'm not going to bother to post a link but even a representative from Nintendo recently commented that the Wii won't be seeing the same level of sales/growth.



In any case in this console cycle the prognosticators have been less accurate than flipping a coin (wasn't the PS3 supposed to have crushed everone else by 2008?) and to say what is going to happen in 2014 when we don;t know Ninetndo's next move or how Natal will be received doesn't seem like something an "analyst" should do. More like a fortune teller.

Merc Hoffner
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Ever seen "The Death of Eric Cartman"?



There seems to be a certain breed of fanboys monumentally dedicated to the slanted reading of the data, baseless assertations, cherry picking both positive and negative data, using strawmen and character attacks on forums, and referenceless referencing. Unfortunately they're called analysts. I'm guilty of not really referencing here but check that whole Vgchartz's ioi vs a Neogof undercover analyst shill debacle. Recently we've even seen them reach decision making level at 3rd parties.



I'm sure someone here could get a proffesional gig out of this. If they haven't already.

Amir Sharar
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I can't stress how much I was crucified on a well-frequented gaming forum back in mid-2005 when I said that the Xbox and PS3 would be at a tie up until 2010 or 2011. This was a time where games like RE5 and DMC4 were thought to be PS3 exclusive, and I argued they wouldn't be and most developers would opt to make multiplatform games. I felt that I had very valid points and I stuck to my prediction. I bring this up because no matter how laughable it may seem, anything can happen.



I'm sure there were those at that time who said the Wii would be the #1 console outselling both of the others combined.



I am inclined to make a prediction here and agree to some extent with this analyst. I don't think it will surpass the Wii, but I think it may come somewhat close to it and that would be enough for Sony and 3rd party developers to be considered a great success.



Without going into detail I base this on a few things:



1) Affordability: With each price drop the console becomes affordable to another demographic. As with the PS2 once the console hits a sub $150 price point it can sell at a point where you would question whether it was on the tail of the adoption curve.



2) BluRay player: With HDTV adoption increasing, it only makes sense that the demand for a BR player would increase. With people paying over $1500 for a TV they want to get something that can "flex" their investment. The 360 was that machine, but with the PS3 becoming more affordable and having a BR player it makes more sense to get that. Sure, stand alone BR players may be cheaper but the always update-able firmware of the PS3 makes it one of the better players out there.



3) Multiple devices at home: The PS3 can be sold as a media device that needs to be by each and every HDTV in your home. I have 2 PS3s for this reason and I can imagine once the price goes down many gamers will adopt a 2nd or maybe 3rd unit. We are at an age where families have upwards of 4-5 PCs and laptops in their homes and I think this effect will translate into consoles/TVs.



4) 3D movies and games: Sony seemed to have pushed Polyphony Digital to take some of their time to create 3D demos for the PS3, all the while sacrificing the release of one of their biggest titles. Sony may recognize that it is key for the PS3 to be positioned well in this regard. 3D adoption may be slow at this point but it would keep the PS3 relevant for many more years. I don't think this is the strongest factor, I'm just saying it could be one.



The Arc Controller can change things as well. Just as the Natal controller can change things for MS. It's a big question mark at this point because we don't know what sort of software each party has planned. We must all prepare for the possibility that either one of these technologies can be a huge boon for the respective hardware maker. It could "turn the tide" for any of them. It seems equally likely they could not perform as well as hoped.



Looking at the PS3 as a product on its own merits while disregarding the competition, we can see that it is quite reliable, has a strong branding, features great first party software from a healthy stable of developers, provides to be by far the best value for one's money, and is technologically future-proof (BR firmware updates and 3D support in the future for example). I think they've hit a marketing goldmine with their Keven Butler VP of Sony "insert department here" ads. They have some stellar software coming out.



With HDTV adoption rising and the PS3 becoming more affordable the stars are aligning, I hope we can all at least agree on that. I think we can all agree that they will achieve a good amount of success. How much, is what is debatable.



Before anyone calls me a Sony shill, I'm just a hardcore gamer who loves all consoles equally (well, I'll admit, I own over 60 360 games and only 12 PS3 titles, this is because most 3rd party titles are better on the 360). Secondly, some of the points I made are very debatable, I understand that. It can turn out that "3D gaming" is a complete non-factor. Alternatively, I think we should be open to the possibility that "3D + Arc Controller" could be a massive strength for Sony.



Damn, I typed an essay. My apologies.


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