 |
|
|
| |
Analysis: How Does The Infinity Ward Fiasco Affect Call Of Duty?
by Kris Graft [PC, Console/PC, Exclusive]
|
|
| |
|
April 30, 2010
|
| |
Ever since Activision fired the two heads of its prized Modern Warfare creator Infinity Ward, video game websites and forums have gone into meltdown mode.
Here you have the world's biggest video game publisher axing Jason West and Vince Zampella, the two heads of a subsidiary that just made their parent over $1 billion with November's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. Now, at least today in the media, Infinity Ward is associated with lawsuits, employee defections and general drama.
With Infinity Ward losing about a quarter of its employees following West and Zampella's firings, and a new lawsuit that has former and current staff suing Activision for unpaid royalties and bonuses, there's speculation that Activision could just opt to close Infinity Ward.
But at this point, would it even matter if Infinity Ward's name was laid to rest? What would that mean for the Call of Duty franchise, and does the average gamer -- or even average Call of Duty fan -- care about the dispute? We spoke with analysts, gamers, journalists and retail to find out.
A Dignified Death?
Janco Partners' Mike Hickey, the analyst who first publicly speculated that Infinity Ward could shutter amid the staff defection, said it may be in the best interest of Activision and remaining Infinity Ward employees to let the studio die a dignified death.
"We think that a more effective way to rebuild a studio’s mojo would be to take the remaining creative force and allow them to shape their own future and subsequent ego identification through a new studio, as opposed to always trying to relive past Infinity Ward glory," Hickey said.
"It would seem that the studio shock from massive employee defections has likely destroyed any remaining creative culture within Infinity Ward."
But not all industry watchers agree that Infinity Ward is at death's door. "There are a lot of unknowns out there right now, but so far we don’t believe [Infinity Ward] will be shut down," said Todd Greenwald with Signal Hill. "We think Activision will retain the studio -- even if is largely in name only -- assuming it still has brand equity."
Greenwald added, "If Infinity Ward winds up being a liability -- that is, a constant reminder of the ugly fallout post-Modern Warfare 2 -- then certainly Activision may just scrap the name and rebrand it."
The analyst said that he expects the widely-expected Modern Warfare 3, no matter who creates it, to "easily" sell more than 10 million units.
Wedbush's Michael Pachter called Hickey's speculation of a studio closure earlier this week "overly melodramatic," although he did say that he believes "this situation has escalated well beyond what [Activision] intended."
The dispute between Activision and Infinity Ward has had an impact on Activision stock in recent days as well. "It appears to me that investors believe that Activision has transformed itself from a relatively fair employer into the Evil Empire, with contentious dealings between the company and employees the norm," Pachter said.
Has The Dispute Tainted Call of Duty?
Infinity Ward has a large fanbase. Out of the millions of Call of Duty consumers, there is a core contingent that is aware of what's going on at Infinity Ward right now. They know that the studio created a Call of Duty game every other year with Treyarch, and they know that Infinity Ward is the series originator. This group is concerned about the future of the franchise and is disenchanted with the publisher of one of their favorite series.
"Honestly, after Activision fired Vince and Jason, I sold my copy of Modern Warfare 2 and bought [EA's] Bad Company 2 instead," said grad student John Vanderhoef of Milwaukee.
One Seattle-based gamer said, "Activision has reached Walmart status in my mind, in that I absolutely refuse to pay for another game [or] DLC from them." But the gamer is willing to make an exception, despite the concern. "If the game really is all sorts of awesome, I may be willing to buy it used."
David Eckelberry, lead gameplay designer with LucasArts, said that the debacle between Activision and Infinity Ward has had "no effect whatsoever" on his views of the current Call of Duty game and franchise.
However, of the future of Call of Duty, he remains "entirely skeptical." He said, "[There's] definite room to pause and consider the quality level of the next installment of Call of Duty. Though honestly, the masses will decide this -- if everyone on my 360 friends list is playing Modern Warfare 3 -- or whatever -- then I’m going to join the party."
Some gamers, like game journalist Jason Dobson, are taking a wait-and-see attitude. "I prefer to separate the art from the artist, and reserve judgment of where the next studio will take Call of Duty until I play the game."
Law student and Popmatters game critic L.B. Jeffries said that the fallout between the employees and Activision could well turn out to be a good thing. "Modern Warfare 2 was a bloated, misguided, and over-designed hubristic mess," Jeffries said. "The franchise needed new handlers and Infinity Ward needed a new project."
Jeff Cary, an employee at the independent Indiana-based video game retail chain McVan's, offered, "Most people won't care because they don't even understand that the Call of Duty games are developed by different studios. Video game developers only matter to people who like to nerd out on games, like myself. Other than that Activision just needs to put out a quality Call of Duty every year and the masses will be happy."
Analyst Greenwald agreed: "Who knows how much of this controversy will still be relevant 18 months from now," he said. "Furthermore, Call of Duty is such a mass-market brand with broad appeal way beyond the hard-core gamer, that the vast majority of Call of Duty buyers likely have no idea who Vince Zampella and Jason West are."
Lazard analyst Colin Sebastian added: "I don't think most consumers pay attention to which game studio develops a particular title."
Asked if the dispute between Activision and Infinity Ward tainted his perception of the franchise, gamer Tohon Mink summed up the thoughts of many Call of Duty fans by replying, "What dispute?"
Beyond The Fiasco
With or without Infinity Ward, it's clear that Activision is moving forward with the Call of Duty franchise in some shape or form. Beyond traditional retail releases, like Treyarch's next Call of Duty title, analyst Pachter forecast that Activision will transform the series into a subscription multiplayer game.
Activision CEO Bobby Kotick more than hinted at the prospect as early as 2008, when he said that a massively multiplayer online, monetized Call of Duty would be a "natural evolution" of the franchise.
Pachter said, "I think that the company is on the path to subscriptions, and that West and Zampella did not wish to work on that kind of game, leading to their termination. I think that over the next two years, Activision will introduce a subscription game, and think that annual Call of Duty revenues and profits will likely rise rather than decline."
Analyst Doug Creutz with Cowen and Company said, "Now that the franchise is 'established,' it becomes more a question of execution than innovation. Talent moves around in this business all the time. The key is managing your product around that."
|
| |
|
|
Welcome to the current industry. I believe most game consumers care about who made their game as much as they care that the Wii doesn't have as much processing capability as 360 or PS3. I believe most people enjoying CoD aren't aware of any dispute. People don't read about the industry; they just play.
Also:
"If the game really is all sorts of awesome, I may be willing to buy it used."
That's how I am too. I probably will buy MW2 at some point but I will get it used. This is my semi-boycott. EA and Activision are on my semi-boycott list and Ubisoft may end up there too.
I never once read anything from Zampella or West (or any of the other IW staffers seeking financial recompense) suggesting they wanted their "egos stroked." What they wanted was to be given fair compensation after making their parent company 900 million dollars in profits, which to my mind isn't so much about ego as it is about equity. West and Zampella actually strike me as low-key fellows where by contrast Kotick likes to flash that chubby, shit-eating visage wherever he goes and give interviews where he effectively pisses all over his consumers and employees with all sorts of arrogant proclamations. Whatever egos West and Zampella may have, they respectively orbit the much larger ego of Kotick and the rest of the upper management at Activision. At least, that’s my standpoint as a consumer who has purchased a large amount of Activision software in recent years.
As to the notion that all of the hard work is usually viewed as nothing more than a few hours of entertainment by the average consumer, you are correct in that statement but that's the case of all mediums and artistic efforts. Personally, and I'm clearly speaking only in regards to myself, I am very cognizant of the work invested by the talented people who make the games I play, which is why I find Activision's recent choices to be repulsive, in turn making me seriously re-evaluate if I want to continue supporting such a company.
And truthfully, there's nothing wrong with wanting acknowledgement for doing good work and when you really examine the issue, you've answered your own question:
"I know you guys pour your heart and soul out into these games but at the end of the day... to the consumer it is just a game that gets played, shelved or sold on. To you they are buying a work of art but to them it's just a few hours entertainment until the next one comes along. Why do so many in the industry act so aloof? It's a mystery to me."
If somebody pours their heart and soul into something, be it a game, film, novel, etc, then why would you be surprised they take that effort seriously? Creating anything means you take a piece of yourself and forge it into something for the rest of the world to experience so frankly, I don't understand how you assign the adjective “aloof” to such a mentality. Perhaps you don’t work in a creative capacity and you can’t fully empathize with the artistic mind but regardless, I’m sure you can relate on some level.
And I think people are underestimating the amount of information that gamers have at their disposal before spending $60 on a game. Games are announced two, three or even five years before their release (Alan Wake). Trailers pop up here and their for years. There are multiple publications devoted to games that preview upcoming titles repeatedly, with developer interviews and what not. Sure, the fact that more than ten million people bought MW2 means that many if not most have no idea of the pedigree/history of the series, but I bet some scientific polling would show the average MW fan knows more about Infinity Ward than you might think.
Personally, I bought MW2 because I liked COD:2, and COD:MW, I didn't buy World at War or COD:3 because I have no knowledge of their history and the critical response to the non Infinity Ward COD games is lackluster-and $60 for an entertainment product is a lot of money. I know that I am not alone because as much as World at War sold, it wasn't nearly what MW:2 sold. To say that quality/creativity/the creator doesn't matter is silly. It's true in any entertainment/culture medium that people do care about the brand, but without top quality creative talent making products for that brand, the brand loses value very, very quickly.
The same thing happened with Medal of Honor when a lot of people from Dreamworks Interactive left after their studio was turned into EA Los Angeles. Some of those people left to form Infinity Ward. And what happened to Medal of Honor after Allied Assault?
Pachter's forecast should be taken in the context of a new subscription-based CoD, not just continued annual releases of the retail product. Taking into consideration monthly fees that people might pay to play an online CoD MMO could equal not only bigger revenues, but a wider profit margin -- theoretically.
...meanwhile, in a galaxy not so far away, an entire mass market continues playing their Farmville and other online/mobile interactive media with absolutely no interest or awareness for names like Zampella, West, and Kottick.
and Gus, as has been said in the recent Blizzard threads time and time again, QUALITY trumps ORIGINALITY every time. innovation is overrated. just make me a great game.
Wouldn't that be something: If they went on to make exactly that same kind of game with their new team :P
My prediction: MW2 was mostly successful out of inertia from CoD4:MW. MW3 will sell great, but won't match MW2. If they do subscription (which I doubt -- at least not in a way we expect from such a term), gamers will switch to generic military shooter b w/o subscription.
That said I think the MMO route could kill the brand. I doubt a COD MMO would be competitive against the subscription free Battlefield series from EA. Bad Company 2 already gives a much better multiplayer experience; especially on the PC which is where MMO's have traditionally thrived. Start charging Joe Schmo $15 a month and I bet you see him and everyone on his friends list start playing Battlefield.
Doesn't anyone else see this as an opportunity for another franchise of the same nature to swoop in and steal Modern Warefare's thunder?
I agree. I hate innovation. All I want to see are better and better versions of pong. Stick with the formula that works, people.
I think one of the worst things about Starcraft 2 is how much they have innovated with Battle.net. It's terrible! The graphical innovations make me ill. The terrain interaction...ugh.
The worst thing a game developer could do is to innovate, to make changes and do something new.
To weigh in on Gus's musing about additional features, given that these games are (for all intents and purposes) console games now....Can you imagine the console collective being able to work together as part of a larger group? Based on my time on Live and PSN....That requirement would make the already un-appetizing prospect of paying monthly for a shooter completely abhorrent to me.