 |
|
|
| |
Sony's Yoshida: Xbox 360, Wii, To Go Next Gen Before PS3
by Leigh Alexander [PC, Console/PC]
|
|
| |
|
July 9, 2010
|
| |
Sony's been touting a 10-year plan for its PlayStation 3 ever since launch, aiming at the same kind of lifespan its PlayStation 2 enjoyed.
In addition, analysts widely agree that new motion control solutions like Sony's Move and Microsoft's Kinect will act as a mid-cycle refresh, extending the shelf lives of the current generation's consoles further than the industry has seen in previous years.
But a new console generation must come eventually, and Sony Worldwide Studios president Shuhei Yoshida is certain that PS3 won't be the first to turn over. Speaking to UK trade site Develop, Yoshida pointed to primary rival Microsoft first, suggesting that the first to market will be the first to lose steam.
"Looking from the outside, it was Microsoft that released the first of this generation of consoles. Naturally, in my opinion, Microsoft will make the first move," he said.
Nintendo's strategy was almost diametrically opposed to Sony's -- it launched a simple hardware solution targeted at a mass audience, and its Wii has never much minded not being on the cutting edge.
In fact, it has foregone features like robust online infrastructures or high-resolution video capability and focused primarily on strong software. According to Yoshida, this might mean Nintendo will be forced to make a hardware refresh first.
"Nintendo’s approach was not to upgrade much on its basic hardware – Wii doesn’t even support HD resolution – so they might be the first to move," he suggests.
"Probably the watch should be on these companies, in my opinion," the exec continues. "Because PS3 was later than Xbox, and is more powerful, so it has a longer lifespan."
Analysts and industry companies often have differing opinions on the ultimate length of the current hardware cycle. Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot has stressed that the company is already preparing for "new home and handheld consoles" to be ready "in the next few years", while others, such as Electronic Arts chief creative officer Rich Hilleman, say that the trend toward digital distribution means current consoles will stay relevant longer.
|
| |
|
|
The development costs for the current consoles are to high to be profitable for great parts of the industry. I am pretty sure, a new console would be ignored by the big third party publishers. Only Nintendo can survive whole generations with almost no third party support, like on the N64 or the GC and my guess is a new hardware from either Sony, MS or Nintendo would see lesser support then these platforms.
Nintendo on the other side has no interest in abandoning the current user base. They have by far the most consumers, they will try to keep them as long as it is possible, and additionally, they are releasing a new platform next year. The 3DS will bind lots of developer capacities for Nintendo over the next years. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a console cycle, that is longer then 10 years this time.
But how soon?
Nintendo: Has the largest customer base of all three consoles. Why would they want to introduce a new system and risk alienating their current consumers? What benefit would that bring? Their current consumers do not care about HD on the same level as PS3 and 360 owners. When they made the decision to buy a Wii, it was based on the gameplay, not Pixels and polygons. So they would be less likely to upgrade. The talks of a WiiHD are all "hardcore" gamers wishing.
Microsoft: They have a solid user base and plenty of great products and services on the market. They have just now refreshed the hardware and are releasing their motion controls later this year. They will want to give both of those a few good years before announcing a new console. While their user base would be more likely to upgrade than those of Nintendo's, they will be more hesitant if the new console was not backward compatible. Manufacturing costs would be another factor. Microsoft is just recently producing consoles at a profit. Why would they want to introduce a new console to sell at a loss when they haven't enjoyed the income they currently receive?
Sony: Sony is about in the same boat as Microsoft. There is little incentive to upgrade.
The ONLY way I will buy a Wii2 is if it's WiiHD + WiiBC. If they make it WiiBC AND GameCubeBC then I'm really sold.
I'm still trying to scrape up enough cash after last month's Red Dead, Alan Wake and Mario Galaxy to be able to afford the next Halo and most importantly, the 3DS and a couple of games when it comes out next year.
I've already had to sacrifice buying a PS3 so I can enjoy more games on the systems I already own. If any of the big 3 come out with a console in the next 2 years I will be seriously upset and will probably have to pass buying the system because I'm still trying to recover the losses of all the great games coming out...
MS may wait even longer and just keep coming out with new devices for the Xbox, as will PS3. There really isn't a need for better hardware anymore. Some games look as good as many movies and the technological breakthroughs will be on how they are played (better voice recognition, new inputs, etc). The hardware doesn't need upgrading for a long while, but the inputs may.
Anyone looking to buy a system would be crazy to not go Wii then. Developers could now develop for all three systems and make boat loads of money. Exclusives would all but die except for Nintendo's first party exclusives which is a big draw for many buyers.
I guess the only issue would be if developers can create software that can be scaled to work on the old and new Wii easily enough and cheap enough. If this is not an issue Nintendo could control the market.
If this happens, I think Sony has a chance to move into second in the console wars. That move would hinge on being able to match or come very close to matching the price of the Xbox360 and it would hinge on showing that the PS3 does make games with better graphics. I keep hearing that the PS3 is more powerful but I have not seen any proof yet.
The loser... DD is not the future unless the future is extremely bleak.
I have to agree with Ephriam Knight. But I would also add that I worry about Microsoft and Sony being able to make their next generation of console's backward compatible with the current generation.
Without BC, releasing a new console would be difficult in this market (IMHO).
HD-gaming was the fad, not motion controls. Half of the owners of HD consoles do not play it on a HDTV. Half of who does can't see the difference. Microsoft themselves researched this.
Second, Nintendo's strategy these past 6 years has had two goals: Destroy Sony and expand the gaming industry in general. Every move Nintendo makes is aimed at undermining Sony's effort. The DS was a quickly put togheter pile of stuff to counter the PSP (hence all the third pillar talk beforehand). The 3DS is meant to disrupt Sony's 3D efforts. The huge third party backing for the 3DS is to undermine any counter-action Sony can do with a PSP2.
Nintendo will only move on the home-console front if Sony makes a move.
Then you have also the trouble within Sony and Microsoft. Sony's PS3 managed to negate all the profit Sony made with the PS1 and PS2 combined... Microsoft is coming more and more under pressure to drop its Consumer Division (aka the Xbox Division) by its shareholders and investors. There's a real good chance both Sony and Microsoft won't release a new console because as parent companies they had to eject those divisions responsible.
Incidentally, this was also the direct cause of the US-market implosion in 1983 (there's also a bunch of indirect causes that created this direct cause). Atari was a branch within Warner, got split up and sold. The Intellivision was part of Mattel, Colecovision of Coleco (a company that started as a leathercompany, moving to plastic swimming pools and so forth). All of them got ejected by the parent company. Especially with Atari gone who owned the vast majority of the gaming industry, it imploded in the US. It only imploded in the US because of the extensive license systems at work then, whereby gaming companies activities where mainly concentrated in their home countries.
You really think Nintendo is gonna launch a new console just because PS3 sales in Japan have kept pace with Wii sales YTD? Really? You didn't put these numbers in context at all. PS3's Q1 was extremely front-loaded with great software while Nintendo still hasn't learned from Q1 2009 and didn't have anything out until SMG2 in May. And the Wii has still sold more than the PS3. I think you just personally want a Wii2 to come out before Sony's next system because you're reasoning isn't really that strong at all. Nintendo can always make another entry in their big franchises for the Wii whenever they feel like it - that has no bearing on when they'll release their next system at all. Also, the PS3 has only sold half of what the Wii sold in Japan, in addition to the better line-up in 2010 so far, Nintendo is not worried at all - especially after E3.
I would think it's the exact opposite of what Yoshida is touting: Sony would be more inclined to abandon the money hemorrhaging machine that is PS3 before Nintendo abandons their golden goose (the Wii).
IPhone x 4 size = IPad
IPad x4 size = new console?
Seriously though, I think most of what he says seems reasonable. Although I'd only rate his comments about 50% probability of becoming reality.
Power wise wii could stand to get a HD update with modern console power but as pointed out casual gamers don't care about HD. As for move vs kinnect the biggest issue i have with ms is loss of control.
Remember the bad old days of FMV and interacting but not controlling much welcome to kinnect where yoga and kinectamiles rule. Meanwhile sony retrofitted res evil 5 gold ,heavy rain and mag all games i already own for move where you can get that wii hd experience today.
When i was at the ohio state fair nintendo was there with dsi xl and talking up 3ds as well as telling everyone who was in the know sony will destroy kinnect. That's right nintendo was propping up sony and badmouthing kinnect. I don't know if they simply trained locals but the people i talked to were surprisingly knowledgeable about current events in gaming-usually i get the say what i didn't know that crowd so i was impressed and that's saying something.
Will i get move it's already slotted at amazon and kinnect probably if only for the dash app provided early reviews are promising though i still have reservations about lack of true movement.
Remember i'm in no hurry to see the next gen as the graphics on my ps3 and 360 are near photo realistic and development of mass effect 1 ,2 and 3 would be on 3 different consoles in the past and have unrealistic bills to pay for 1 game per cycle. 12+ YEARS is far better as it gives everyone time to get HDTV and broadband and we get to see mass effect 1,2 and 3 on 1 console generation.
Personally i could care less if the big 3 bring out a new box as i think most gamers are quite happy where they are and i'd expect rioting in the streets. Wait til we can have ps +,live and a pay nintendo cloud service,or let me put it another way the jump from nes-snes,ps1-ps2 and even 3 were big jumps
these are the good consoles but going from2600-5200-7800 wasn't enough difference.
With each passing generation graphics have much like a f.p.s been honed to perfection and if i'm uninterested in a new box anytime soon then the general public would be even farther behind me.