Blizzard's StarCraft II sees its long-anticipated global launch today, and estimates from industry analysts on the title's potential keep coming in: Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian now predicts the game, for which he says preorders were "strong", could sell 4.5 million in its debut quarter and 6.5 million units during 2010 overall.
And the industry will be glad of the injection, says the analyst, who sees continuing "sluggish" conventional U.S. retail console and PC game sales -- down 8 percent year-to-date. Although the most common metric for industry health, NPD retail sales numbers, notably excludes PC titles, Sebastian says software sales will need to see at least a 3 percent gain over the remainder of the year if the industry hopes to show a flat or even slightly down comparison to 2009, Sebastian warns.
But June results shouldn't bring any nasty surprises, and may even beat expectations, the analyst suggests, despite an offsetting effect on publisher's revenues from a strong dollar. According to Sebastian, publishers Electronic Arts and Activision could see a $50-$100 million impact on their revenues for the full year thanks to the exchange rate.
Although the strong quarter results for Activision will come when it reports StarCraft II's launch quarter at the end of September, the publisher's other titles seem to be doing well, too: Sebastian cites channel checks that show Transformers: War For Cybertron, which launched June 22, is seeing "decent" sales, while he describes sales of Blur, Singularity and the newest Shrek tie-in as "generally modest."
EA may be a little more successful in its second quarter than most analysts expected, too -- Sebastian sees "slightly better" pre-order numbers than forecast for the August 10 release of Madden NFL 11. "Nonetheless, we remain somewhat cautious with respect to product momentum and the health of some core franchises (e.g., Need for Speed)," Sebastian notes.
As for THQ, it's already lowered its own quarterly estimates due to the underperforming UFC: Undisputed 2010. After the title's May 2009 predecessor was something of a surprise hit, shipping about 3.5 million units by early 2010, the company expected similar success for the sequel. That apparently failed to materialize, but discounting at retail has "stimulated sales to some degree" for the newer title. Sebastian is also optimistic about the potential of THQ's early 2011 games, including Homefront and Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine.
Wait so the industry thought that rehashing the same games year after year would be a consistent plan for life? Humn... I wonder where they got it wrong...
Starcraft is but a (big, big) drop in the ocean, yes it will generate a lot of sales this year, but then things will continue its dying path until all the leeches in the industry jump ship and let creativity rise again like it did in the 80's and 90's.
Something is wrong with this industry when an avid gamer like me has only the following two games to look forward to, the Sly Collection and a HD collection with ICO and SotC (not even confirmed yet)
I only bought FIFA 09 (at discount price 15$) and Im still happy with it, even if online multiplayer will die soon, I wont buy FIFA 2011, perhaps 2012 or 2013 (already assuming they keep pumping one out every year), since its the same game over and over and over and over... please release just a DLC with teams instead of a new game every year, it cheaper to make and you'll get lots of profits as well...
I reallly think that Ubisoft got it right when theyre stopping the Assassins Creed yearly pump for a while to stop and figure out where to take the franchise, perhaps more publishers should take this road.
Perhaps its also worth mentioning this again (Hi 2006): http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/2722/video_games_are_dead_a_chat_with_.php
To all publishers, business is probably ok with you for the next years, but hang in there making yet another DOOM clone (as 100% of all FPS are to this day, excluding perhaps far cry 2) and you'll see a slow but still very painful death.
LET *Real* INNOVATION (even if with small profits) back into the game industry before it is destroyed forever.
What, a highly anticipated game is going to sell a lot of units? I am shocked!!!
Seriously, I don't see what the big deal is. Never got into Starcraft, but hey if people want buy go ahead. I'll just wait until Metroid: Other M comes out.
@Tiago
I would agree with you, if it wasn't for the fact that there are other games out there besides Sly HD to look forward to. I myself am looking forward to Metroid: Other M, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Epic Mickey, DKC Returns, and Golden Sun DS. And that's just this year! Next year, we're getting a new Mortal Kombat, a new Twisted Metal, etc.
My point is that there are alot of games to look forward to, and Starcraft II isn't the only thing out there.
But mark your calendars, this time next year there will be a report in main stream media about a "slump" in year-over-years sales for this month and maybe next month. When all it really is, is that there won't be a title like SC2 released at this exact same time next year.
I talk all about this making games stuff in my blog...
The problem is that developers release a new and exciting game, but then are too scared to innovate with the sequel. All they change is the content (story, chars, setting, etc) of the game itself, with minor tweaks to game play...it's called patches and DLCs guys. When you actually add new features to the game, let us know.
This is just my opinion and I could be totally wrong but I figured I'd throw my 2 cents in. Please don't take any of it the wrong way :)
@Evan
"All they change is the content (story, chars, setting, etc) of the game itself"
Isn't that the definition of a sequel? A sequel is something that shouldn't differ very far from the original. How is SC to SC2 any different from Half life to Half life 2? Why is this a bad thing? Why must a sequel be so different from the first that its has a chance of straying away from the design of the original? Look how the new Command and Conquer game turned out. The majority of fans from the franchise felt that it distanced itself too much from its routes.
"..with minor tweaks to game play...it's called patches and DLCs guys"
Hasn't the original SC been updated for years and years, tweaked and patched, to get that right balance? They shook that chemistry up by adding new units. Technically speaking, this game is TOTALLY different from the original SC game that was FIRST released.
I knew what I was getting when I bought sc2.If you want something new from blizzard, wait for their "Next Gen MMO".
And to stay on track:
@Jonathan
"What, a highly anticipated game is going to sell a lot of units? I am shocked!!!"
Games are treated like oranges! You squeeze and you get juice. Squeeze a bit more and you get more juice. And you can do this exercise more and more, adding water and sugar! In the beginning you had the perfect, fresh orange juice, in the end you have water and sugar for the price of orange juice + the price of the water and sugar and the effort to squeeze the juice very very hard. But all is in the mind of the prospect(marketing people say). He ordered fine, fresh orange juice and no matter what the price or the taste are he thinks that this is it. It must be if it cost so much.
I was a poor student when the first game came out. I didn't have the chance to buy it. Later I was waiting for the sequel to hit the shelves but I saw the price, I saw the game. I saw how they wanted to sell two or even three more games to complete the puzzle and I think that is wrong. Here in Bulgaria the game is retailed at 65 EUR or 130 Bulgarian leva or 85 USD. Average salary here is 400 leva. With these money you can live for a week or even two. I don't know who is so greedy Blizzard or Activision or both! They make over 100 000 000 USD every month from WoW. 12 000 000 clients give $15 every month to avoid WoW abstinence. In one month they earned the money that they spent on SCII development. And now they want more. That's how the big fish dies, it becomes too big it eats a lot and then, there's nothing to eat and it starves!
Um. Having a big hit may be good for Activision, but it doesn't help the rest of the industry: the only people who benefit will be Activision's shareholders. If anything, it actually makes things worse for the industry, by distorting the overall financial picture - as other people have pointed out, next year we're likely to be told that the industry "underperformed" in August...
Yeah the price shocked the crap out of me. But I still bought it and feel a little bit awkward thinking about Blizzard now. They have basically played upon my emotions and forced me into a hard place to buy it.
Im going to uninstall and redownload several times to make that £10 markup back off the sods.
I do not see why; with predicted sales figures and preorders already making their money back several times over.. and no-one really knows how much they are going to make... that they have to charge nearly £45 and they are bringing out several of them!!!
Great game; just a touch dirty on the price. I blame activision
Starcraft is but a (big, big) drop in the ocean, yes it will generate a lot of sales this year, but then things will continue its dying path until all the leeches in the industry jump ship and let creativity rise again like it did in the 80's and 90's.
Something is wrong with this industry when an avid gamer like me has only the following two games to look forward to, the Sly Collection and a HD collection with ICO and SotC (not even confirmed yet)
I only bought FIFA 09 (at discount price 15$) and Im still happy with it, even if online multiplayer will die soon, I wont buy FIFA 2011, perhaps 2012 or 2013 (already assuming they keep pumping one out every year), since its the same game over and over and over and over... please release just a DLC with teams instead of a new game every year, it cheaper to make and you'll get lots of profits as well...
I reallly think that Ubisoft got it right when theyre stopping the Assassins Creed yearly pump for a while to stop and figure out where to take the franchise, perhaps more publishers should take this road.
Perhaps its also worth mentioning this again (Hi 2006): http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/2722/video_games_are_dead_a_chat_with_.php
To all publishers, business is probably ok with you for the next years, but hang in there making yet another DOOM clone (as 100% of all FPS are to this day, excluding perhaps far cry 2) and you'll see a slow but still very painful death.
LET *Real* INNOVATION (even if with small profits) back into the game industry before it is destroyed forever.
Seriously, I don't see what the big deal is. Never got into Starcraft, but hey if people want buy go ahead. I'll just wait until Metroid: Other M comes out.
@Tiago
I would agree with you, if it wasn't for the fact that there are other games out there besides Sly HD to look forward to. I myself am looking forward to Metroid: Other M, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Epic Mickey, DKC Returns, and Golden Sun DS. And that's just this year! Next year, we're getting a new Mortal Kombat, a new Twisted Metal, etc.
My point is that there are alot of games to look forward to, and Starcraft II isn't the only thing out there.
I talk all about this making games stuff in my blog...
http://www.aboutmakinggames.blogspot.com/
Mac
@Evan
"All they change is the content (story, chars, setting, etc) of the game itself"
Isn't that the definition of a sequel? A sequel is something that shouldn't differ very far from the original. How is SC to SC2 any different from Half life to Half life 2? Why is this a bad thing? Why must a sequel be so different from the first that its has a chance of straying away from the design of the original? Look how the new Command and Conquer game turned out. The majority of fans from the franchise felt that it distanced itself too much from its routes.
"..with minor tweaks to game play...it's called patches and DLCs guys"
Hasn't the original SC been updated for years and years, tweaked and patched, to get that right balance? They shook that chemistry up by adding new units. Technically speaking, this game is TOTALLY different from the original SC game that was FIRST released.
I knew what I was getting when I bought sc2.If you want something new from blizzard, wait for their "Next Gen MMO".
And to stay on track:
@Jonathan
"What, a highly anticipated game is going to sell a lot of units? I am shocked!!!"
Quote for truth.
I was a poor student when the first game came out. I didn't have the chance to buy it. Later I was waiting for the sequel to hit the shelves but I saw the price, I saw the game. I saw how they wanted to sell two or even three more games to complete the puzzle and I think that is wrong. Here in Bulgaria the game is retailed at 65 EUR or 130 Bulgarian leva or 85 USD. Average salary here is 400 leva. With these money you can live for a week or even two. I don't know who is so greedy Blizzard or Activision or both! They make over 100 000 000 USD every month from WoW. 12 000 000 clients give $15 every month to avoid WoW abstinence. In one month they earned the money that they spent on SCII development. And now they want more. That's how the big fish dies, it becomes too big it eats a lot and then, there's nothing to eat and it starves!
Im going to uninstall and redownload several times to make that £10 markup back off the sods.
I do not see why; with predicted sales figures and preorders already making their money back several times over.. and no-one really knows how much they are going to make... that they have to charge nearly £45 and they are bringing out several of them!!!
Great game; just a touch dirty on the price. I blame activision