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In-Depth: What First-Person Shooter Creators Think About Subscriptions
by Kris Graft [PC, Console/PC, Exclusive]
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August 13, 2010
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Increased monetization of online shooters is coming, and gamers adamantly opposed to emerging business models should probably get used to the idea.
Recent speculation about charging subscription fees for online shooters came about when Activision CEO Bobby Kotick -- who has before mentioned a Call of Duty MMO -- openly mused this summer how he "would have Call of Duty be an online subscription service tomorrow" if he could.
Oft-quoted analyst Michael Pachter with Wedbush suggested that the times are over when game publishers can sit back and watch gamers play titles like Call of Duty for hundreds of hours for free online. "We expect the publishers, led by Activision, to devise a way to extract value from consumers who are playing online," he said recently.
Such talk taken out of context leads to speculation among gamers that Activision and other publishers may simply tack monthly fees onto existing online gaming services provided today. That's likely not the case -- smart companies will think of new ways to add value to an online experience to justify a recurring fee.
First-person shooter developers have varying opinions on the monetization of their specialty genre.
Justify My Subs
"Giving players the opportunity to buy extra stuff is just fine, so long as they aren’t 'forced' to do it," said Alan Wilson, VP of Roswell, GA-based Red Orchestra and Killing Floor developer Tripwire Interactive.
He's generally against charging for a boxed FPS in conjunction with a monthly fee. "I don’t think there is any decent justification for subscription models for online multiplayer [shooters], except to rake in more cash. If some companies go that way, I’d expect to see them offer something new and different for that money -- persistent worlds, ever-expanding gameplay, giant servers -- something that justifies me laying out money every month."
"It would make me feel like I have paid the money to buy a new car and then I have to pay Ford to be allowed to drive it every day too. I know they need the money -- but they won’t be getting it that way from me."
Wilson said Tripwire, a small independent studio founded in 2005, has been able to sell a total of 1 million PC software units by offering free downloadable content, making the title more attractive to gamers as time went on. That brought in more sales, and built up goodwill between the studio and its customers, he said.
While he said his studio doesn't foresee taking on a subscription business model in the near- to medium-term, he still conceded such a model could be justified, at least for games that are free-to-play. "While I really wouldn’t like a subscription model for online games, someone like Activision could certainly try it out. But make the player buy the game and pay subscriptions? No, just seems greedy."
But not all shooter developers that we spoke with are as averse to the subscription model.
Bobby's Got The Right Idea?
Mark Long, CEO at Seattle, WA-based Blacklight: Tango Down developer Zombie Studios said, "I know I’ll get flamed for this, but I’m going defend Bobby Kotick here. ... Merging [business models of Call of Duty and World of Warcraft] makes a ton of sense when the vast majority of Call of Duty players are playing online. How is the fanbase going to respond? If there was an MMOFPS version of Call of Duty with World of Warcraft-quality RPG elements under the hood, I’d bet it would be the biggest game in history. I’d play it. I’d play the fuck out it."
Long, whose multiplatform $15 downloadable FPS Blacklight: Tango Down showed almost 100,000 players on Xbox Live leaderboards at the end of July, said his studio is "definitely open to the free-to-play model," which relies on microtransactions and advertising for revenue.
"[Zombie would try free-to-play in] Asia to start, but eventually in Europe and North America as [the model] expands on the PC. How that works out on consoles will be up to Sony and Microsoft, but I would guess that by the next hardware cycle, free-to-play, subscription and microtransaction games will represent a significant share of overall sales."
Gamers may have less of a problem accepting a free-to-play model, as long as it's structured around a good game. In Asia, there are free-to-play shooters, some tremendously successful, such as the SmileGate-developed CrossFire. In the West last year, Electronic Arts launched the free-to-play microtransaction-based Battlefield Heroes, and Nexon's Combat Arms has also been notably successful in the space in the U.S.
Just The Beginning
Another Western-derived free-to-play FPS is Mesquite, TX-based id Software's Quake Live, whose open beta began in January last year. Just this week, id announced "premium" and "pro" subscriptions for $1.99 and $3.99 a month (billed annually), respectively, depending on desired features and game modes. The game, which also derives revenues from advertising, still offers a large amount of maps and online multiplayer for free.
id is currently working on the large-scale shooters Rage and Doom 4. Steve Nix, id's director of business development, said that any one business model isn't going to completely replace another. That goes for online-centric genres beyond shooters.
"We live in a world full of smart game developers serving fractured markets with disparate preferences," he said. "Therefore, new revenue models will continue to emerge and spread across borders."
He added, "Subscription models will make sense for some of the most popular shooters with large, ongoing development and maintenance costs, but we will see these new models get tested out on all games, including shooters."
"I’m sure we will also see interesting hybrids of old and new models. Advertising, micro-transactions, rewards models and subscription-based options are only the beginning and ultimately these innovations should add options for gamers that wouldn’t have otherwise existed, which is a win-win for both developers and gamers."
Industry speculation indicates that Activision could implement a Call of Duty premium subscription service that would allow subscribers to have automatic access to features and maps as they are introduced. Activision has yet to confirm details of any such models -- only hinting at subscriptions and MMOs related to the franchise.
The Only Way Ahead
"I would myself think about it in terms of service and value provided to our users," said Marek Spanel, CEO of Czech-based ArmA 2 developer Bohemia Interactive Studio. "If the value offered to them is adequate to the admission required through some form of ongoing payments, I would be very open to implementing it." he made clear that his studio has no plans to initiate such a business model.
He explained, "For example, if we would decide to create a persistent online battlefield in one form or another, some form of 'pay as you play' payments based upon the actual usage of the service would be the only way ahead."
"...I think this trend will continue and it's the future of some online FPS games, as it is clear that traditional sales of PC games are declining, and this is probably the only remaining way to establish and support any online service."
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The same cannot be said of Call of Duty though. Its attraction as a game is both single player, and multiplayer, but if playing for multiplayer the main draw is skill training (i.e. getting better) in a limited landscape. Money spent does not translate into assets built. And just how big is the divide between singles and multis?
XBox Live shows that FPS content is monetisable in an online fashion, but its Gold subscriptions are cross game and comparatively really cheap. It is conceivable that Activision could roll all of their online games up in a similar fashion (although how practical I don't know) but single games? It didn't really work out for Planetside did it?
This is the key. I don't know what options there will be in the future, but right now, I can play a dozen other shooters online for free; I can find a number of used games for under $15 and get dozens of hours of gameplay out of them if I wanted; I can pay whatever I want for a Humble Indie Bundle; or, I could just go back and play one of the other dozens of games I already own on an older system. Therefore $15 for 5 maps is not appealing to me, nor is a subscription multiplayer when I have so many better options.
The last thing we need to do as an industry is sap our consumers' desire by extorting funds and/or punishing them. Just because film and music are on the decline too, doesn't mean people are going to stick with games. Give them a reason to leave and they will find something else to spend disposable entertainment dollars on.
From a business side, sure the optimal company gets regular easily quantifiable payments (and preferably up front, which may mean before dev even starts in our case). But I've never seen a purely textbook "optimal" company. Like everything real, there are flaws. At the end of the day, what matters most is who you are doing it for and why. Are you doing it to plate your toilets with gold? Or are you doing it to invest more profits in your company? Are you doing it to pay your workers better or afford them a better quality of life? Or perhaps you are doing it for the main reason people do business... to better meet their customers' desires.
Here is another example of a greedy multimillion dollar game publisher looking to make more money when they do not need it b/c WoW makes them their bread and butter, and so will Blizzard's next MMO! The upcoming DUST 514, a MMOFPS for yes consoles, I can understand why they will charge a monthly fee. ITS AN MMO!!!! Giant servers, huge open worlds with expanding areas, lots of a gamers on one server, lots of content (quests, items, upgrades, markets, etc.), future expansion packs, and you get to play with the PC EVE Online players.
They want to charge monthly subscriptions for CoD: Black Ops let's say, then you better make it so that the servers can handle multiple teams or individuals (Over 5,000) with multiple guns firing, explosions exploding, air strikes and gunships firing without the frame rate dropping once. And you better have all the weapons and firearms in the world from USA to China to South Africa, and have people do more than just run and gun or snipe in a sever all day long. Let's have quests, raids, PvE, PvP, and of course the gay CoD clans or guilds if you will. ;)
We are already paying 300-600 dollars for the console, 60 dollars for the game (some pay up to 150 for collector editions), 50 dollars for the Xbox Live Service fee, our Broadband internet bills a month, and now you want to charge a freaking monthly fee to play Quake, Doom 4, CoD: BO, crappy XBLA shooter games, and any other non-MMO games on consoles and PCs! KMA!!!!
I'm not a fan of console shooters though, so this won't really affect me.
DLC works just as fine. If you can't pump out enough DLC, what makes you think you can pump it out every month to warrant a sub?
The systems surrounding the core mechanics were all really innovative and showed a lot of forward thinking that would easily help any MMO expand their user base to the point of running at profit. However, the game's base mechanics, story, and world were completely stark. The world was populated by blank slate characters that spout purely expository information unless they were just a walk cycle wandering the streets aimlessly. Nothing about the world felt like it was actually alive, just a backdrop for player versus player action.
That's all a First Person Shooter has going for it too in terms of multiplayer. Any bots created are likely just going to mimic players in terms of effectiveness and still be mostly unable to adapt to specific play styles to the point of them being unable to prove a challenge for long compared to skilled humans and what else can be added to a subscription based game that couldn't be reproduced by a fan community using mod tools?
I can see the value to companies in getting a larger return on the increasing costs of game development, but it really has more costs than that since the team is likely going to be pared down by their corporate overlords (again citing ABP for this) in order to run at maximum profits. At best if wildly successful, will cause the creative leads for the game to get bored and leave the company to make something different instead of adding content to the same game for years (see Blizzard).
It's ultimately going to lead companies in a direction that most won't want to go, even if the players massively support it.
I know the stigma surrounding f2p games on these comment sections, but if you really examine what these guys are doing with their services, it's pretty crazy that these FPSs are free.
Or if you're going to do a subscription model, release new content equivalent to a DLC every month...
But anyone who doesn't charge a monthly fee and releases new content for free is going to have a definite advantage over all of these greedy ass motherfuckers.
It's really not a viable concept that anyone smart would warm up to, unless you have a persistent world MMO RPG FPS.
That's why I'd rather play Counter-Strike Source than Modern Warfare 2...
Subscription fee for broad band internet 50$/month
Subscription fee for XBoxLive 30$/year
Price of the console Several hundred
Price of 1 console game 60$
Plenty of room left to fleece? Charging more for less and less. /sigh
If subscriptions could be purchased by both month or lump sums of game time (by the hour), then we'd be getting somewhere. Then I could buy some time and have it for when I wanted it, while hardcore players could get the better deal ($/hour) of the monthy subscription. I feel that the issue with me is the granularity of the subscription options, not the overall concept of paying to play.
If a customer is buying a game for $60 and then paying $5 per month to play after 12 months their investment is $120 in a single title. If a DLC pack is $15 then you essentially would need to produce sufficient content to make at least 4 DLC packs within that 12 month period continually to supply a user with enough content to justify a $5 subscription.
That's a lot of content to produce, but definitely is in the vein of the MMO model. I am not sure that FPS houses want to devote that much time to consistent content development or not. None of them really talked about that. The questions in this article are not really what I would of asked.
Do they want to hire more people to create a larger amount of content to justify for a subscription? Do they believe the content they currently provide in a DLC format is sufficient for a subscription model? What kind of legs do they think a subscription shooter would have?
Activision, and specifically the COD business model has always been a new game pretty much every year alternating studios. If their lifetime of a game were to change from 12 months to 24 months, then how does their overall architecture change? Do they have more content developers and less programmers? Can an existing studio reallocate their resources to perform this model without significant changes?
A large number of questions to be asked. I definitely do not think any of it is in the line of simply tack on to an existing thing. It is definitely a significant shift in not only the development plan of a project, but a shift in how people work on it, and how it is distributed to customers. That's a lot of effort for a business model change.
The advantage of the subscription model, or what I like to call GaaS (Games as a Service), is that it incentivizes publishers to make durable games, rather than games with a lot of hype but only a few hours of game-play. Publishers will also be inspired to invest more in the community and keep multiplayer servers running longer. Hopefully, by reducing pirating, game companies will increase revenue and pass that onto the gamer either by adding content or reducing price. It also means that people pay for what they use. Someone who'd like to play the game but doesn't want to drop $60 on something they may only play for a dozen hours may make the leap if they only have to pay $20. Of course the downside is if you are hard core, you'll pay more. But the upside of that again is the fact that the publisher is more interested in investing in good performing titles meaning regular enhancements and new content for those in-love with the game. I see this as the future across all genre's.
No idea why Activision would need to charge yearly again, they already pump out a game a year, by a second tier studio (at least as far as FPSes are concerned), and charge 60 bucks for a 6 hour single player and a multiplayer that is obviously where most of that budget is going to.
If they want to charge 5 bucks a month for an online game with no upfront cost, that gets updated every now and then (including new single player missions), and isn't 'annualized,' then sure, why not.
Sure, Activision charging what they can is capitalism, and there's nothing wrong with that, but they're already using a quasi annual fee model that would need to be destroyed in order for a subscription model to work. Get Treyarch back on Spiderman or Tony Hawk, they're obviously second rate at recreating CoD games. And free up N-Space so they can make on Geist 2 with great Wii control. My God there's a lot of dev talent being missused by the Call of Duty annualization machine...
First Person Shooters have issues with rampant hacking, Cheating, exploiting, and griefing.
Not being able to do anything about the above group of people, because you didn't implement a decent Anti hack, or customer reporting system from the start, does not help your game.
Having so many blatant hackers and cheaters in a subscription based system is bad because:
1) you would end up banning over half you income base.
2) you loose the other the other half because they will not pay to play a game full of hackers.
APB has too many cheaters subscribing to the game. Its clear that there is nothing they can do about it. The hacks out there are undetectable by the anti hack software they use, or pretend to use, no one is sure that software is even active. Non hackers are not re subscribing until something is done about it. New players that are "demoing" the game are not staying.
If your going to make people pay for a subscription on a FPS, you better have your game hack proof. Because you cant ever make a game Hack proof your best bet is to never make a FPS with a subscription base.
MW2 sold what, 20 million copies? Seems there is fun to be had there. The bottom line is that if they don't provide enough value to justify a subscription then a subscription product will fail. Period. This isn't a state-sponsored monopoly industry (yet) so you either provide value and succeed or provide inadequate value and fail. There are plenty of FPS options out there so if CoD becomes onerous then move on.
(I realize I'm over-simplifying a complex market dynamic so don't come at me with the thousand complicating factors like marketing value and hype and distribution channels, et al. It all distills to that simple concept.)