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Sony Reduces Investment Cost For PlayStation 4
Sony Reduces Investment Cost For PlayStation 4
May 26, 2011 | By Frank Cifaldi

May 26, 2011 | By Frank Cifaldi
Comments
    46 comments
More: Console/PC, Business/Marketing



Development is already underway on Sony's next home console, according to the company, though it won't repeat the ambitious and expensive PS3 development process that kept its division in the red for so long.

Speaking to investors Thursday following the announcement that its PlayStation division posted a profit in the previous fiscal year, Sony Corporation executive vice president and CFO Masaru Kato revealed that part of its projected R&D cost in the coming year will be used for the next PlayStation home console.

"The PS3 still has product life, but this is a platform business," he said. "So for the future [of the] platform, when will we introduce it? What product? I can not discuss that. But development work is already underway."

According to Japanese business newspaper Nikkei (as translated by Andriasang), Kato told investors today that the company would not have the same level of financial investment in its future products as it did with the PlayStation 3.

"It is no longer thinkable to have a huge initial financial investment like that of the PS3," he said, allegedly in response to a question about whether the games division would retain its profitability.

The company spent significant amounts of money designing the PS3's Cell processor from the ground up with IBM, and more on the plants to fabricate it.

"Significant cost reductions" for PlayStation 3 hardware was fingered as a major contributing factor to the division's approximate $435.5 million profit during the fiscal year ending March 31, up from a loss of $1 billion the prior year.


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Comments


Benjamin Quintero
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Fingers crossed for symmetrical processors. :)

scott anderson
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Heterogeneous processors themselves aren't a bad idea, the Cell was "ahead of its time" with the PS3, leading to a clunky (if not powerful) solution. I could write pages speculating on what next-gen hardware might look like, it will definitely be interesting to see what the final results are :).

Brad Borne
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Can't say that the Cell really did much for the current generation. Can you name any games that actually use physics to effect actual gameplay? The only game I can think of is Boom Bloxx, and that's, ironically, for the Wii.

scott anderson
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Pixeljunk Shooter is one game that comes to mind that heavily uses the Cell for gameplay and couldn't easily be done on another console, even if its not the first thing that comes to people's mind because its a 2D PSN title.

Keith Thomson
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I find it funny that people say that the PS3 was ahead of its time for heterogeneous processors, when the PS2 also had a similar processor, a 3-core system where all 3 were slightly different. The MIPS core, the VU0 that could double as a mere coprocessor or as an independent processor, and a VU1 that operated as an independent processor full time. That's part of why it surprised me when people complained about the Cell's complexity when it was just a generalized and extended version of the Emotion Engine.

Jamie Mann
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Consoles have had heterogeneous processors for decades - the Jaguar had Tom and Jerry, for example. There's also a long history of home computers having several support chips, from the Amiga to the BBC Micro - as with the Commodore 128, you could plug in a Z80 processor alongside the default 6502 processor.



Generally, I think the biggest problem developers have had is the shift away from traditional "single-threaded" programming models: it was a fairly major paradigm shift. This was discussed at great length back in the day - e.g.

http://arstechnica.com/old/content/2005/06/5054.ars



Beyond this, developers had severe issues with the PS2 due to the quality of the early dev kits and associated documentation. Legend has it that this was due to a fatal assumption by Sony: having seen the performance people squeezed out of the PSX by coding to the metal, Sony assumed that they'd want to do the same again with the PS2, without taking into account the fact that developers were only able to do so because they'd had several years of prior experience, during which they were supported by the dev kits.



And by all accounts, Sony did much the same again with the PS3:

http://www.ps3blog.net/2005/09/09/ps3-harder-to-develop-for/



In addition, the SPEs aren't particularly good for general-purpose tasks and are highly memory constrained - e.g.

http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1355827/what-does-programming-
for-ps3s-cell-processor-entail



All told, there's a lot of reasons why a number of cross-platform titles (e.g. Ghostbusters) have come out best on the Xbox 360: the PS3 is potentially a bit more powerful, but squeezing that power out takes a lot of effort...

Doug Poston
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I have to agree with Jamie with the quality of dev kits and docs.

IMHO: Microsoft's biggest advantage over Sony is their support of developers.

Maurício Gomes
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XNA I think is the ultimate proof of that... Also advantage over Nintendo too (remember the infinite complains of Wii games selling less?)

Robert Hernandez
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Frankly symmetric processors has advantage as well as disadvantage. I think that sony should keep the cell architecture but increase the bandwidth and Ram plus add a well suited Gpu for it.

illian Quinn
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Sony, Nintendo, and MS all need to drop developing console hardware and focus purely on their content delivery systems, OSs, and game development.



It's a waste of money and resources to be manufacturing all of these proprietary gaming systems that can never be upgraded.



Media PCs are the way to go as one does not have to replace the entire system just stay on top of future advancements or if a single part bites the dust.



The entire console market is just so wasteful, it's pitiful.

Brad Borne
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Howso? I've love to see someone get Crysis 2 or Gears 3 running on a PC with an x1950.



How much money would you have spent keeping a GPU set upgraded for the 5 years that the 360 has been on market? Less than 400 bucks plus the price of the PC itself?



You know what's pitifully wasteful? Coding through layers of abstraction in order to support a wide range of metal.



Not to mention that most PC software will be for the lowest common denominator. Either you personally get the entire PC market to stay current, force PC developers to optimize for every single card out there, or convince pirates to actually pay for their games, then maybe PC gaming will make some sort of headway.

illian Quinn
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So basically, because it's too difficult to code for we should consume more non-reusable resources...



I think you're missing the point of my comment.



And what exactly are you talking about with getting the PC market to stay current?



Also, who's to say that these people that are using pirated copies would actually pay for the games if they had no other choice? More than likely, they don't have the money, so it doesn't even matter since people with money are still buying these titles.



Last, since when has pc gaming fallen behind?



It owns more than 50% of the market while the console market has to share the remaining percentage.



http://software.intel.com/en-us/blogs/2010/04/19/hear-that-knocki
ng-sound-its-pc-gaming/

Brad Borne
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How is replacing 5 years worth of GPUs in a PC to stay current reusable? It's waste. I console has a 5 year + lifespan, computer parts have 2, 1 if you enjoy blowing money.



I'd venture to guess that a lot of people pirate games because they don't like the uncertainty of knowing whether their hardware can actually play a game well or not.



Most people won't stay current, their GPUs will lag behind a few years, so developers get less of a percent of their audience able to play the game at high settings, which takes more development resources.



Lumping in free to play and MMO? The least graphically demanding games on the planet? Yeah, that's a great argument that PCs are better because they can be upgraded and kept current.

illian Quinn
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Well, if manufactures used higher quality materials, the life span of replaceable components would be much longer. Instead many try to skimp by with everything using crap, thus forcing us to buy, buy, buy. Although there are some who are not cheap skates and have produced very long lasting hardware such as asus, corsair, seasonic, antec, teac, etc. There are plenty of manufactures using quality materials in their products now that I think about it...but that wasn't always the case.



I fail to see why an entire system needs to be replaced every 5 years when only one or two parts need to be replaced to stay current.



If that were the case with people using pirated copies, well that could easily be fixed with developers releasing demos or directing potential buyers to sites that have developed web apps. to determine whether or not your system can handle a particular game.



There are plenty of people who will buy and play games at the lowest settings and if their specs are too low....Well then that probably means they're using a system from the late 90s. In which case, they're not even worthy of being a target audience. Ultimately, it's up to the developers to figure out who their target audience is and it's their own damn fault if they only target people with high end systems. Besides who's to say they can't target people with systems that are on par with the current gaming consoles?



I'm not saying PCs are better or worse for gaming, I was just stating a FACT that the greater majority uses PCs for their gaming entertainment. Argue with that if you want, I don't really care.

Evan Combs
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Making consoles into PCs is the last thing I want to see. First off you are obviously looking at this from a computer geek point of view where you know how to and take joy in upgrading your computer. The average Joe doesn't even know it is possible. Secondly the average Joe wants a laptop which is far closer to a console than a desktop in terms of ability to upgrade.



If people really wanted to upgrade their systems we would be living in a world where console upgrades were common. Instead almost every attempt to release a hardware upgrade for a console has failed miserably.



Turning the console into a PC is the last thing average Joe wants meaning it is the last thing Nintendo, Sony, and MS want. Then if you include all the developmental reasons not to, and suddenly it becomes a lot more obvious as to why having a standard console is a much better idea for everyone, except a small minority.

Marcus Miller
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This is why I stopped PC gaming. I could not afford to keep upgrading my PC. Heck, the cost of some of those video cards was as much as if not more than the cost of a gaming console. PC gaming is only for the hardcore with money.

Harlan Sumgui
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I see where you are coming from, of course our best minds could create systems designed to minimize environmental impact; but money trumps all.



Proprietary systems are money trees for companies when successful. Look at the xbox for instance. Anyone who wants to sell something to an xbox user must give MS money. All software, all online services, every peripheral, etc. MS also gets to data mine millions of people. And during the end phase of the life cycle, MS gets to sell decade old hardware as if it were new.



The next gen could be magnificent for MS in terms of profits if Sony is marginalized, because with one player, MS can start to squeeze those companies that want to sell things to xbox owners.

Rey Samonte
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If I can remember correctly, one of the major reasons developers opted to dedicated themselves to console development was to minimize support for multiple hardware configurations.



Just because players are willing to put up with subpar graphics based on their hardware doesn't mean that's always a positive for the developer/publisher. How would you feel as a developer releasing a game knowing it looks really good, but the impression most people have is below that simply because their specs didn't meet the full requirements? In many ways, that makes the developer look bad.



Also, with regards to demos, making a demo isn't something that comes automatically. A lot of times, time and resources are required to get a demo developed, tested, and released that you often have to branch off from your main build to create a second one.

Michael Thornberg
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I don't think that is why people copy games (I don't like the term 'pirating' either, as those actually gain profit from their activities) I think it is because it is convenient and they don't have to spend money. Also, they can ignore stupid region nonsense. I really don't think it is more complicated than that. Which is why services like Steam are successful, it is about as convenient as it gets. .. Media, Movie and TV companies should take note and follow. Then they would likely see less copying. I firmly believe in that. However, it's about hardware not that 'other' stuff. .. Microsoft is leading the way currently (as far as developing goes) because their developer support is second to none. But none of this matters unless the products are attractive, which leads to Wii. There is something to be said about simplicity and fun. Let's be honest here.. many games on PS3 and XBox take themselves far too seriously, and suffer for it. No tech in the world helps there.

Michael Thornberg
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@Rey Samonte (27 May 2011 at 8:20): Which is why developers should test games on low spec computers, which they normally don't do. It's their own fault. If they don't plan for a game looking good on a low spec machine, then they deserve all the flame they get.

wes bogdan
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Why not forget future hardware like stream,ps4 and xbox next and simply give people a roku sized box and a gaming version of netflix. The internet would need to be much,much faster and cloud servers would do the

hoursepower as far as graphics go. If everyone had super fast eithernet at next to nothing i'm sure the gaming industry would jump all over not producing discs,boxes,systems and keeping the content under lock n key. The downsides would be just as people still buy cd's even with mog and itunes there would be those who preferred bd games and if there ever was a psn sized crash just as you couldn't watch netflix if the internet went down you couldn't game if it was taken down due to hackers or the internet went down in your area...if you could store the games on an external HDD/ SSD then at least you could play single player provided companys like capcom don't treat you like a thief using terrible drm.



By the way i should be able to have a Master Control Profile where i set up all my controls in my system profile and the games are slaves and obey putting my custom scheme in my game profile because all current presets for dual analog games are worthless to me and i went so far as to get my 360 pads rewired and use a custom pad on my ps3,in a post play ,create and share world where i can't even play my way,well that must change.

Cody Scott
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because there are people who still enjoy purchasing a physical copy of the game and being able to know where the disc is. And the key word after your third sentence there is "If".

illian Quinn
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Well, with Netflix representing 30% of all downstream traffic in North American (making it the king of internet traffic)...it's not that far fetched that we're well on our way to what you've expressed.



Makes me wonder why media companies are still freaking out about pirates and pressuring our congress to pass the Protect IP Act...Oh yeah, so they can own the internet and shut down any competition with false claims of illegal activity without due process.

Jamie Mann
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@Illian:

"Well, with Netflix representing 30% of all downstream traffic in North American (making it the king of internet traffic)...it's not that far fetched that we're well on our way to what you've expressed. "



Regardless of how accurate that figure is, the two scenarios are very different:

1) Netflix: send pre-compressed data to client

2) OnLive: recieve data input from client. Render game world. Compress game world. Transmit data to client



Netflix requires large amounts of bandwidth, but doesn't have to worry about latency or transmission issues: video streams generally have a few seconds of buffer, allowing them to ride through packet loss or network interruptions. And since the data's pre-compressed, processing overheads are minimal.



Conversely, Online has to process a huge amount of data and then compress it before streaming it to the client - and latency/packet loss is a huge issue.



All told, it requires at least an order of magnitude more resources to run an Onlive system than a Netflix system - and that's before you take other costs (e.g. dedicated GPU units) into account. Or problems with end-client broadband connections, bandwidth caps, peak-time congestion and connection speed...

Alan Rimkeit
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One problem I have with this idea. What happens when my internet connection goes down and I can't play my games because they are all on-line? Huh? What then? Because we all know Comcast or Time Warner never fail right? O.o

Marcus Miller
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Heck, my carrier has a 100 GB cap on monthly usage. If you exceed the cap then they charge you the business rate of over $100 bucks a month.

illian Quinn
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This is why we need to push our local officials to make the internet into a utility run by the state and nationally, turn it into a human right that is equally and affordably available to all.



We don't live in a democracy for nothing...

E Zachary Knight
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Alan,



And that is different from the current generation of consoles how? We are already severely limited in our gameplay if we don't have an active internet connection.

Andrew Hernandez
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This is a fairly big concept that i do see happening but most likely not until maybe 10 - 20 years down the road. Reason i say this is because of it's overall transition process. Going from digital to physical is a pretty big step in any regard, but when you consider things like netflix, which just kind of sprang from nowhere only to gradually take over the marketplace for movie rentals.



I think we'll see the same thing with services like OnLive. They'll gradually become integrated into our systems that we will then start using them. Pretty soon it'll be all we know.



Of course, that's just an approximation.

Alan Rimkeit
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"Ephriam Knight -



Alan,



And that is different from the current generation of consoles how? We are already severely limited in our gameplay if we don't have an active internet connection."



Really? Because last I checked during the PSN outage I could still play Uncharted 1/2/3, KillZone 3, Dead Space 2, Force Unleashed 2, Heavy Rain, Red Dead Redemption, God of War 3 or pretty much any of the other PS3 games I own. That is with or without the PSN.



The only games I could not play were Fat Pricess, which made me a VERY sad Panda, and LBP, which I did not care about. But my daughter did. She could not play either and that was not cool.



There are so many reasons that the network can go down. DoS attacks like the PSN, weather, natural disasters, technical issues, server updates, ect. The list goes on and on and on. Sorry, but the idea of cloud computing based gaming is inherently flawed for this very reason. No network equals no games. PERIOD.



Then there is Marcus's point of bandwidth usage caps. What to do about those? I have made that point in the past as well. ISP's hold the idea of cloud based gaming by the proverbial sack. They are the gate keepers. They know this very very well. Do you really think that they are going to let this pass by for free? It will cost. How much? I don't know yet but it may be more than the average gamer is willing to shell out. To me this is all just common sense thinking.

illian Quinn
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Yeah, but you got to take into consideration that an electrical blackout is just as likely to happen as an internet blackout...Going cloud changes nothing in those regards (in my opinion), but of course, it'll always be up for debate.



Plus, I shouldn't have to mention that devs will only have to develop for one platform (the cloud server) as opposed to multiple platforms. And not only that, you get the added benefit of playing your games on multiple devices anywhere in the world since all it really comes down to is that it's just streaming media which is no different than netflix except that it's receiving mouse clicks and keystrokes to add interactivity with the streaming media.

Alan Rimkeit
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@illian Quinn -



You really think that there would only one Cloud Server system? You don't think that Nintendo would have one, Sony would have one, and Microsoft would also have one. Hell, maybe even Apple would have one too. Not to mention On-Live and Gaikai, which may or may not survive. Oh, and Steam too.



I also really believe that this utopian dream of a unified cloud based gaming service is just that, a pipe dream. It is never, ever going to happen. Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft are never, ever going to be that close of business pals. The Sun will go super red giant and the Earth will die of burning before it happens like that.



I also trust the power company to get the power back on after a power outage than I trust Comcast or TW to get the internet back on after an outage. Once I was with out Comcast cable service for four days. They took their own sweet time about it.



The electricity is a tad more important for people to use than the Internet or games are.

illian Quinn
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Well, it's a hell of a lot better than having to cater to dozens upon dozens of different platforms (hardware and software wise) and to make both low-end and high-end customers happy.



I don't deny that there will be some heavy competition, but that's a good thing as it'll advance the technology more quickly....



At the end of the day, this is all just speculation on my part. =]



I for one trust my ISP to get the internet up quicker than my electricity since a blown transformer can put people out of commission a lot long than the later. But this is all dependent on the area that you live in.

Alan Rimkeit
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"illian Quinn -



Well, it's a hell of a lot better than having to cater to dozens upon dozens of different platforms (hardware and software wise) and to make both low-end and high-end customers happy."



I actually agree with you. It is a logical idea that would benefit the industry in a lot of ways. I am just saying it is never going to happen.

illian Quinn
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I think the only honest thing we can tell ourselves at this point is:



Only time will tell? =]

Alan Rimkeit
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@ illian - I guess so. But the Vegas odds on Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft joining forces to make a unified gaming platform are most likely beyond astronomical.



EDIT: That all being said I figure that a cloud based system similar to NetFlix could work. I have NetFlix. My family and I use it all the time to watch TV and movies. But I also have physical copies of Blu Ray movies and shows I like. Thus if NetFlix does not work I can still watch something. BTW, I do not pay for cable TV.



If the PS4, or even PS3, had a video game streaming service a la NetFlix that was as inexpensive I could see myself signing up for such a deal. $7.99 a month is hardly a large chunk of cash from my monthly expenses. I have watched many, many TV shows and movies on NetFlix that I would have never watched otherwise. The same could be said most likely for a cloud based video game streaming service. People could play the games that they would have never purchased otherwise.



Sony should build a service like this into the PS4 and make it a standard on top of making Blu Ray games available as well. The two ideas could co-exist with little to no problems at all.



The only problem to over come then would the the latency issue. If that could be solved then all would be well with such a service.

illian Quinn
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@alan



You've probably just figured out exactly how it could reasonably be implemented into the market. Although I don't see how it couldn't be implemented now?



I mean the very fact that you can play a game instantly before buying is a double edge sword in that people might not like the game they are about to purchase but at the same it also opens people's minds up to instantly diving in and actually playing those games that they would otherwise never play. Not only that, they can watch other people playing the game they're thinking about purchasing in realtime...Which is one of the things I love about Onlive. It gives me a real preview of my potential purchase rather than some hyped up cinematics and one-sided reviews.



These days, everyone is becoming more and more accustom to instant gratification....



Agreed, Sony should tap into this at some degree since obviously they're distraught about the PS3's success...

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A W
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I want to see what Nintendo has first. I want to see if they have figure out how to set a standard that no hardware console company seems to have done this generation do to the inovations in the webspace. PS3 is a ten year system so said by Sony themselves. I don't expect a new Sony system in the near future.

Alan Rimkeit
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As far as the PS4 is concerned Sony should just re-use the Cell design. Just modify it even more for power efficiency, pack in a bigger modern GPU, take care of the on-board bandwidth issue between the various systems, and add in more RAM. Heck, maybe they could even make the Cell and the GPU all on one die with the shortest distance between them and the RAM.

Maurício Gomes
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I would personally appreciate that architecture, IF they also make a decent SDK and manual... Noone should design low-level software without decent support, and from what I heard, Sony is lacking there.

Kevin Patterson
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Please Sony and MS, don't pull a Nintendo and release a system with a long lifespan that is slightly to moderately more powerful than current consoles. I want a console that truly deserves to be called next-gen, and I'm meaning the raw power of the machine rather than controllers-perephrials-addon's, etc.

I want a game system that can play games that look like Epic's latest tech demo, Samaritan, at least.

Alan Rimkeit
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The Cell has the raw horse power to pull off that tech demo. Folding@Home proves this. It is the weak GPU, bus speed, and small amount of RAM that is the 800 pound elephant in the room creating the bottle neck. Give the Cell some tweaking to make it more efficient a gnarly GPU, more RAM(1 GB?), and faster bus speeds and viola, PS4.



Really all PC's get are more powerful GPU's/CPU's, more RAM, and faster bus speeds. Nothing else really changes that much.

wes bogdan
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Never is a very long time. Sega will never stop making consoles,nintendo will never have sega as a 3rd party,nintendo will never burn sony and revenge wise sony will never beat nintendo at their own game with ps one/ps2....and on and on. Conventional wisdom is often wrong as we are so used to how things work that when change happens it sideswipes everyone as nintendo did to 360/ps3 with wii or netflix,ipad or my own personal crusade in gaming getting FULL CONTROL of my dual analog layouts.



Resistance and the conduit shouldn't be the exceptions to the rule but the rule. I use inverted aim,toggle rather than hold(force unleashed with toggle for force powers plays infinitely better than force unleashed 2 which lacks it and if you stop pressing the force power it stops-poor design) My control scheme is based in southpaw but i realized when you move on the right stick and freelook on the left keeping the face buttons in default breaks the scheme. Ghostbusters said it best,"Don't cross the streams!!" Guess what happens when you're forced to move your freelook hand over your right hand to access the face buttons,or you could stop moving and DIE!!



I created what I term FULL SOUTHPAW or MIRROR DEFAULT though you could also call it QUINTISON mode after both my psn and xbl gamertag. They're the same



As for the big N,Sony and MS not working together all each need do is create a portal where on the other end is the UI/dash in xbox green,sony XMB or Nintendo channels all done in software and crunched by server farms which means i could have a nondescript roku sized gateway box.



As i told TWC it's no longer about road runner/the internet but netflix or xbl/psn-what you can do on the internet....eventually they will realize it,sooner if discontent subscribers keep telling them so.



Again never is a very long time like when nintendo would never sell rare to ms.

wes bogdan
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I can see where kinect,waggle etc wouldn't have been released if this was already here we'd all be using dualshocks. However i never said accessory makers couldn't or wouldn't release new gear as rather than systems new input devices would be the only new hardware sold.



Remember after genisis sega started being first out,first out of date which culminated in their exit from hardware fast forward to now nintendo is being first out ,first out of date.



Wii was weak hardware so they need a HD refresh first but while it might exceed both ps3 and 360 when we get to ps4 and xbox next nintendo will again have weak hardware and 2-3 years after ps4/720 release a newer box...see a pattern because i do. Nintendo will quite possibly stop making consoles perhaps not portables but they could also join up with apple and become APPLE-NINTENDO.



Right now i'm just speculating but if apple wanted in like sony and ms before them then nintendo's very popular ip's would make a great fit. Steve jobs lost bungie and halo to ms after it was shown at macworld which i expect they're still fuming over so partner or outright buy franchises that are coveted and you have a launch lineup worth talking about.



The next version of apple tv could be a new console-stranger things have happened.

wes bogdan
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Yes wii has been the best selling system since the glory days of the nes/snes but who bought it more hardcore gamers like us or people who were put off by the complexity of regular gaming. We all know if you own :360,ps3 and wii you'll spend most of your time with ps3 or 360 though splitscreen party or kid friendly wii is king even with lbp,modnation,sly,ratchet and other kid friendly games on ps3.

I was comparing nintendo vs sega and left out jag,neo geo and 3do because either it didn't take off or was too expensive and imploded at launch.



While nintendo was content to ride both the nes and snes out sega after the success of genesis hobbled the system with sega cd and 32x then released saturn early and at a high price pissing gamers and retailers off alike. Then it was off to dreamcast which they got right but the looming ps2 killed it and dc has also been refered to as xbox 0 sort of a dry run before ms unleashed xbox on the world.



My fear is despite the success of wii stream will fail to catch the gamers wii attracted with a ps3/360 style controller with a screen in it and much better graphics. If ps4/720 arrive between sept -nov 2014 or 2015 stream will be about halfway through it's cycle as nintendo still builds 5yr boxes rather than a 10yr box. So just as i said stream will be the least powerful box again as i expect ps4 and 720 to be 2x-3x more powerful than nintendo who would rush out their next box to compete with the new Juggernaut systems from ms and sony.



Until this happens it's my own expectation however the past likes to repeat itself so this is what i expect to happen.



As for apple the ds lite /wii look like they arrived from the apple design school so with that in mind and no giant company behind nintendo as ms xbox or sony playstation what would be so hard to believe apple nintendo could happen? When others zig nintendo zaggs sounds like apple to me and if it ever happens i expect it to fit like a glove perfectly.



The future's hard to predict but some things are more likely than others and we'll just have to wait n see what happens.


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