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Analyst:  Mass Effect 3  'Most Promising' Retail Game Of E3
Analyst: Mass Effect 3 'Most Promising' Retail Game Of E3
June 20, 2011 | By Frank Cifaldi

Video game research firm EEDAR has named EA and BioWare's upcoming Mass Effect 3 as the "most promising" retail game shown at this month's E3 expo, citing purchase intent and online media consumption.

EEDAR's research involved analyzing page views, purchase intent and video views through its media partners, IGN and GameTrailers, to rank which of the games shown at E3 had the highest sales potential at retail.

"EEDAR has had strong demand from its retail partners to create an objectively quantifiable method to measure the commercial potential of games showcased at E3 2011," said EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, saying that its new report "highlights the collective activity of over 20 million consumers during the week of E3."

According to EEDAR, Mass Effect 3 had the highest number of recorded page views among all tracked games. The firm says that its data indicates the game could sell in excess of 20 percent more copies than its predecessor.

"We are excited to see that there was such a high level of interest in Mass Effect 3 during E3, especially when you consider how many amazing games were on display at this year's show," said BioWare VP of marketing Patrick Buechner.

The top 20 most promising retail releases showcased at E3 2011, according to EEDAR, are as follows:

1. Mass Effect 3 (Electronic Arts)
2. Battlefield 3 (Electronic Arts)
3. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda)
4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision Blizzard)
5. Assassin's Creed Revelations (Ubisoft)
6. Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception (Sony Computer Entertainment)
7. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros. Interactive)
8. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo)
9. Halo 4 (Microsoft)
10. Infamous 2 (Sony Computer Entertainment)
11. Duke Nukem Forever (Take-Two)
12. Star Wars: The Old Republic (Electronic Arts)
13. Tomb Raider (Square Enix)
14. Gears of War 3 (Microsoft)
15. Rage (Bethesda)
16. BioShock Infinite (Take-Two)
17. Super Mario 3D (Nintendo)
18. Resistance 3 (Sony Computer Entertainment)
19. Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary (Microsoft)
20. Street Fighter X Tekken (Capcom)

Note that EEDAR's research methodology weighs all three factors (page views, video views and purchase intent) with its own internal metrics. While Mass Effect 3 had the most page views, it was actually Modern Warfare 3 that topped the list in both purchase intent and video views, despite its placement at number four.

EEDAR's report also named Nintendo the most-watched publisher of the show, saying that the announcement of its new Wii U made it stand out above all other publishers.

"While investor reception was slightly negative, EEDAR believes the initial sentiment from the finance community was premature and unwarranted," said EEDAR. "EEDAR believes that as Nintendo continues to release additional information regarding the Wii U, investor sentiment should reverse."

The most-watched platform of the show, says EEDAR, was Microsoft's Xbox 360, which came out on top in both purchase intent and page views. The firm cited its continued perception as "the quintessential core gaming platform" of this generation, as well as the long-anticipated announcement of Halo 4, as contributing to its placement.

For further analysis, the full report is available here [note: PDF format].

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Rodolfo Rosini
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EEDAR is passing judgement on a game that might or might not be released at the end of 2012. Of which we know little except it plays out like Baldur's Gate (1998) in 3D. With space-guns and space-orcs and space-ninjas. Like the previous 2 Mass Effects.

Something is rotten in the state of gaming.

Rebecca Phoa
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Actually, Bioware has given a March 6, 2012 release date for ME3.

How are 'space-guns and space-orcs and space-ninjas' exclusive for Mass Effect? Is Starcraft simply not the same idea--Warcraft in space? Aren't Vulcan's space-elves in Star Trek?

Mass Effect borrows ideas from popular sci-fi. Nothing is completely original these days.

Mass Effect is a completely different beast from Baldur's Gate--heck, some people might like it better if it were. It's a fairly typical blockbuster AAA game with Hollywood type properties and popcorn like thrills. Baldur's Gate is a not so glitzy but solid role playing game by comparison--I'm surprised it did so well.

Jeff O'Connor
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It has a firm release date. It plays nothing like Baldur's Gate. Its story feels nothing like the one found in Baldur's Gate. It has no space-orcs. Its space-ninjas are sparse.

Something is rotten in the state of gaming. But it isn't Mass Effect.

Mathieu MarquisBolduc
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In other news: Mass Effect fans have more free time, better bandwith. Joke aside I could think of a few casual titles from E3 that will beat most of this list in sales. Also their top 11 (Duke Nukem) just had an oppening week of ~130k on consoles. I pronouce this list silly.

Mathieu MarquisBolduc
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I parsed the report. They describe their methodology without justifying it at all. Purchase intent and page views are from IGN only, media views are from Gametrailers­. Thats it. Nothing to indicate that those values have correlated with sales in the past. Its like Gamasutra's own "saling the world" that uses amazon's data - it doesnt correlate with real world sales at all. I shudder to think that real executives might base decisions on reports like that.

pinball pete
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I take it that no one bothers to read details anymore? The methodology said it was only taking data for the week of E3, a week prior to Duke's release. It is natural to expect current releases to place high on the list. I am sure if the date ranges were broader, Duke wouldn't have showed up.

Zan Toplisek
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Only one original IP on that list. Tells a lot about this industry.

Jonathan Gilmore
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To be fair, you could have done the same thing with expected gross from 2011 movies and had a similar list full of sequels and reboots.

Anyway, this list seems pretty silly, I don't think anyone in their right mind could think ME3 would outsell MW3. Video views represents the core within the core, most of the people buying MW3 aren't on the internet hunting down E3 stories.

Zan Toplisek
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I know it's no different from other creative industries, yeah.

What I meant was it shows how sequels absolutely dominate.

Also, note that I have nothing against sequels. I think it's good companies are able to grow their brands like this, so along as they innovate within them.

Glenn Sturgeon
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Theres alot of titles on that list that will out sell ME3!

I see several that i'd expect will out sell ME3 by 2X-3X or more.

ME2 was destroyed by the planet scanning.

It was a AAA title with a touch of Epic Fail. Will they come up with yet a worse way to mine for resources in ME3? like a 2600ET mining game maybe? How could that get into the game?

Plus IMO the ME series seemed more intresting before Fallout3 came out and smoked it on most every level.

Even keeping within the genre Skyrim will out sell ME3 by far.

Thats my 2cents

Don Moar
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I missed the part where EEDAR predicted that ME3 will outsell every other game on the list.

gren ideer
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There are two parts that are important.

This is a list of games with the "highest sales potential at retail".

and the second important part is:

1. Mass Effect 3 (Electronic Arts)

Feel free to defend the list if you want to, but it is clear that Mass Effect does not have the highest retail sales potential. Without accuracy, it is a fairly pointless list.

Don Moar
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I'm not defending anything. I am questioning why some people seem to think that EEDAR is saying that ME3 will outsell all the other games on the list when that's not the case.

EM Green
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When I'm certain I'll buy a title I actually go on a media embargo to avoid any and all spoilers (including visuals). Perhaps I'm an outlier when it comes to this but I know my views for those titles end with that decision.

Richard Ranft
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Missing Sock World will outsell them all - I used a paperclip, some dice and my aunt's microwave to determine this. Believe it.

sean lindskog
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I laugh at your funny! :)

Jeff O'Connor
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A surprising degree of distaste toward the series is what I'm finding on this site. Long-time lurker but I've never noticed this before. It's not like that on other sites I frequent.

Planet-scanning 'destroyed' Mass Effect 2! Mass Effect isn't innovative! It's Baldur's Gate in 3D! I can't keep up with this hyperbole.

This is going to be a terrific game. A terrific game that will sell. It won't sell like Battlefield 3 (no matter how much its developers insist they're aiming for that level of exposure) but then, none of the best of them do.

David Serrano
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Answer this question honestly: do you work for EA / Bioware or a social marketing company contracted by EA / Bioware to intervene in forums and discussion about EA / Bioware games?

Amir Sharar
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The first 4 titles on that list are not only multiplatform on the HD consoles, but will also be on the PC as well. So I'm not surprised to see them dominate the list considering the most of the gaming audience out there will be able to play these titles on their platform of choice. The actual order of those 4 titles doesn't really matter at this point and will probably in a constant state of flux up until these games are released.

I'm just surprised the some games didn't make the list, namely Ghost Recon: Future Soldier, considering the exposure it had at MS's showing.