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Analyst:  GTA V  Could Sell 25M In First Year
Analyst: GTA V Could Sell 25M In First Year
August 31, 2011 | By Mike Rose

August 31, 2011 | By Mike Rose
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    16 comments
More: Console/PC, Business/Marketing



A new report from Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia estimates that if Take-Two Interactive releases the next installment in the Grand Theft Auto franchise during the next fiscal year starting in April, the publisher could potentially see sales of up to 25 million during its first year on sale.

The analyst said that he was increasing the company's previous unit sales estimate of 15 million for GTA V to 17 million, as he sees "significant upside potential" for the title.

However, he noted that even this new estimate may prove conservative, given that GTA IV sold through 17 million units in its first year, and the install base of PS3 and Xbox 360 is expected to be 125 percent higher at the point when GTA V is released.

He said that, given the circumstances, it is very possible that the upcoming game could even sell between 20 million and 25 million units in its first year.

The analyst put forward the following scenario: If 90 percent of GTA IV owners purchase GTA V, and only 10 percent of the incremental install base buy the game, then sales would surpass 20 million units.

Elsewhere, Bhatia said that Take-Two's lineup for the next fiscal year is looking strong, with the likes of Bioshock Infinite, Borderlands 2 and Spec Ops: The Line to come.

He said that, for the remainder of the current fiscal year, the potential launch and growing speculation for the long-awaited Max Payne 3 may work in the company's favor, to offset the fate of its October NBA due to the ongoing NBA lockout.


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Comments


Jamie Mann
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It'd be interesting to see what Arvind is using to produce his "125%" install-base estimate. The total number of consoles sold has pretty much doubled since GTA4 was launched in 2008, but this obviously fails to take natural wastage (e.g. people moving to new platforms, hardware failures) into account.



Personally, I'd peg the upper limit of first-year sales expectations at around 20 million - and even then, since we're not looking at the same technology upgrade that there was between GTA: SA and GTA4, GTA5 will need a truly spectacular set of story/gameplay hooks to pull that many people in...

Duong Nguyen
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MW 2 sold 12 million and that's because it has a massive online component. GTA5? It has a strong story and lineage but I don't think it will sell 20 million, probably 10 million is more likely. Without a strong multi-player component it won't make anywhere near those numbers.

Michael G
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I doubt it'll sell 25 million in a year, GTA games tend to better over time because of PC gamers, well they used to when they didn't grief modders.



On a seperate note, anyone noticed that they've just been remaking the cities from the original games? GTA 1: Liberty City, Vice City, San Andreas GTA 2: Liberty City. All that's left is GTA London. If they're doing a London GTA then it's entirely possible that they'll make 25 million in a year :)

Andrew Hernandez
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Here's hoping that the next game takes place in a Chicago inspired city.

Achilles de Flandres
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I'm rooting for London / Paris. Hey Take2, if you're reading this! Make it like Lock Stock & 2 Smoking Barrells (or Snatch)! Thanks!

Peter Teeche
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European city for GTA? I think it's really bad idea, I can't even imagine that- eu scenery only works with movies like The Bourne Identity, not in funny action game...

Harry Fields
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Hong Kong! Oh yeah!!!

Jason Withrow
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@Rastislav Granak: Of course, 1960's London was the setting of the first GTA's expansion pack...

Peter Teeche
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haha, yes, that's right- 2 expansion packs was setting in London, but the gta1&2 is quite different from the next games in the series and I still don't think the GTA humor settings in Europe makes any sense...

Michael G
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GTA_London



You're forgetting that they already did one set in the 60's. And as I said in another comment, they seem to be recreating the cities from the 2d originals anyway.

Chris Melby
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Check it out! Another company has invested in a product/company and they're talking it up, as they're hoping to see some nice returns.



Oh, and look, Gamasutra is helping them to promote their agenda. ;)

Matt Marquez
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GTAIV wasn't that good, so it would be surprising it did sell that well.

Achilles de Flandres
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Ice Cube once said: "Those of bad repute will persist with their objections."

Michael Joseph
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Agreed. GTA 5 will break records.



This is a fake trailer --> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-6-_V2_wZM



but...



imagine that direction and include a more detailed simulation of cliques where you and your boys (and girls) are cruising, partying, and living in that world and when you're ready, do the standard missions on top. Cruising past others who are out to party, every night is Friday night, lines at the various night clubs, etc.. GTA 5 : Party



I hope they focus more on the accuracy of the Simulation and then combine that with the standard gameplay... in other words, make the world more alive, and keep the gameplay the same. That's pretty much all they have to do (not that that's easy) and it'll sell massive.



http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=ttwo



Key to GTA has always been the city simulation and the story/missions/mechanics provide the motivation and objectives. Lately they've been focussing more on new story and objectives but not improving the simulation... not making the world more alive

Jamie Mann
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Sounds too much like hard work :P



A lot of people like the Sims - it's the best selling PC game ever. But I'm guessing that the overlap between Sims-players and GTA-players is fairly small.



In simple terms: the more you build out the simulation, the more realistic it has to be and the more time and effort people have to put in - for instance, weight-training in GTA: SA. At some point, those activities become a chore, rather than a pleasure.



Do you really want to be dressing your character, feeding him, exercising him and then directing him to buy gifts for interactions with the opposite sex? There's definite parallels with keeping a pet or playing with dolls...



Also, it's debatable how much fun you can have "cruising" with NPCs - after all, they're essentially mannequins working through a set of rote behaviors and mannerisms; you may as well just stick an inflatable doll on your car's passenger seat.



We simply don't have the AI technology to make this sort of thing work - people build supercomputers with terabytes of ram and thousands of CPUs to try and emulate a single mouse or cat brain! All Rockstar has to work with is 512mb of ram and a handful of aging cores...

Matt Marquez
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Not the 'classic' GTA games. GTA3 was a departure because it went 3D but San Andreas took the series in a direction where I was afraid it would take it. The problem I had with SA-4 was that it had too much city simulation, especially with little to no depth. Not to mention after you fail a mission you got to drag yourself across that 'big realistic city'. What a pain.


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