In
this week's 'Question Of The Week', we asked our readers, "Is
there really a fight for market share between the PSP and DS? (Nintendo
has claimed there isn't.) If there is, who's going to win?"
With a deluge of responses, we collected the best and the brightest
for your perusal. The responses varied from emotional gut reactions
to deep, well thought-out analyses, spotlighting the key differences
between the two handhelds and their potential piece of the pie.
The
Nintendo Camp
The
Game Boy and therefore Nintendo has long dominated the hand-held
gaming market. Many of our respondents pointed to that, and Nintendo's
experience in the face of such fallen challengers as Sega's Game
Gear and Atari's Lynx as a key factor in predicting the Big N's
continued success in the face of the PSP. Another major point was
the innovation of the DS, versus your views of the PSP as nothing
more than a portable PS2.
Yes, there is a market fight, but I don't think it's a big
deal; I think it'll be the DS hands down: time-to-market, price,
compatibility with the flood of existing Advance games, and unique
new features well-adapted to gaming.
-John DeWeese, Institute for Creative Technologies
I
submit that the DS has a generally better chance than the PSP.
For the most part I'd say this is because of the backwards compatibility
with the GBA. Also it certainly has more opportunities for original
control and gameplay schemes with the dual/touch screen. Though
the games supporting that feature have unfortunately been fairly
ineffective so far (with the possible exception of Metroid). The
PSP's media capabilities will not do much good because all the
content would be bound at the hip to the platform. Unless they're
darn cheap that wouldn't be much of a motivating reason. In the
end it's all about execution though.
While
definitely positioned differently, they of course compete on three
fronts: Perception of tech leadership (important for press, users),
consumer mind/wallet-share, and publisher/developer mindshare
(arguably driven by the consumers).
Claiming
to not be in competition is of course the favorite tactic of anyone
that thinks they aren't going to win. (i.e. "That's OK, I
didn't want my lunch money anyway").
Of
course, assuming that better technology wins is a very big assumption.
The Game Gear was miles ahead of Game Boy... but lost. Several
platforms were better than the PSone… but lost.
The
key to Nintendo's chances will be in their ability to produce/procure
compelling games to match the innovative platform they've put
together.
-Kim Pallister, Intel
Nintendo
will win the war... only for the fact it has a larger gaming library
right now that Sony will not catch up to within the next three
years. Sure the PSP will probably be better but if we look at
history the Game Gear,and Turbo Express were better… but
then again they no longer exist.
-Jehu Brown, Kinetic Synergy Inc.
That's
easy - they are not mutually exclusive. Nintendo will win. The
market the PSP is aimed does not have time to sit around playing
portable PlayStation games. People may buy the PSP as a novelty,
but you will find most of them will not buy many games for it.
Nintendo
has a proven winner on their hands - they know the market, they
know what it takes to sell (158 million Game Boys sold).
Sony
has made a huge mistake here.
-Anthony Bull, Black Coffee Software
Of
course, gamers see both systems as viable options. The DS will,
however, attract more non-gamers, though they will be interested
in less traditional games. The DS' tie-in ratio will suffer as
a result.
The
DS will still win. By the time the PSP is launched in all regions
(sometime around June) the DS will have been selling for a while
and will have no manufacturing constraints. Because of the DS'
unique nature its major third party games will not be ported to
the PSP. The PSP will survive as a media player but will have
less third party support. Its first party titles will be unable
to match Nintendo's. Because of its reliance as a media player,
it will also experience a low tie-in ratio.
- Anonymous
Nintendo
DS, simply because Nintendo is known for their handheld successes
- and that's what all the kids want, a Nintendo. Comparatively,
no-one has heard of the PSP, even though it is a far superior
machine in my humble opinion.
- Anonymous
I
say not. Nintendo always had and always will have the portable
gaming market. They've just got more experience at it. Although
it is nice to have diversity in a market, I think Sony's attempt
at the portable gaming market is futile.
-Darren Schnare
I
agree with Nintendo. There isn't really a fight for market share.
The two systems offer completely different gaming experiences.
But if there is stiff competition between the two systems, I do
believe DS will last longer on the market than PSP the same way
the "black and white" Game Boy lasted longer than Sega's
Game Gear. When the next generation systems are released, the
PSP will become obsolete, while Nintendo's Revolution will most
likely make use of the DS.
A
market? That is a tough one. GBA already has the market well saturated
as it is. PSP will perhaps be able to lure more of the mature
players towards portable gaming, like Sony did back in the day
of launching the first Playstation.
So
it's going to get ugly. My money is on Nintendo DS. They deserve
to win for their bold move of a whole new way of playing, where
Sony just does the more-of-the-same strategy. In the end the games
will determine it. Both platforms still haven't got any super
killer apps launched yet...
-Marque Pierre Sondergaard, Powerhouse
I
don't think there is a fight. Nintendo seems to be excelling in
hand-held systems and Sony is going against the best. I think
Nintendo will win.
-Eric Fuerst
They
are two very different devices. Nintendo is all about gameplay.
PSP costs $100 more and will come with the movie - not the game
- of Spider-Man 2. We like the DS a lot more and are developing
games for it.
-Ed Magnin, Magnin & Associates
Innovation
has and is seemingly the driving force behind the individuals
of any company, especially those of such prestigious ones as these.
Individual employees seek for gratification on a scale different
than that of the grandiose company they may work for. If Nintendo
says they aren't vying for market share, then no, I don't believe
it. If Shigeru Miyamoto came up to me and told me they weren't
fighting, then yes I'd believe him, but never the company itself.
Competition is always good for business, and in a world where
Nintendo has been leading the hand-held industry; it could improve,
given some rivals. So in that respect - no, I suppose Nintendo
isn't really fighting for market share, they'll just sit back
and wait for the consumers to see the difference themselves, over
a decade of handheld expertise. With a reputation like that, who
needs to fight?
-Joseph Carr, Transplace
Predicting
PSP
The
opposing view is that the more technologically advanced and graphically
superior PSP will win the day. Among other reasons cited were the
DS as being too gimmicky, the PSP's fairly low price point, and
the PSP being positioned as a lifestyle device along the lines of
Apple's iPod with multiple applications.
The
PSP will win, the DS is too much of a mystery, Nintendo will have
to come with something good to beat Sony.
-Jamar Waterman, Renaissance Systems
I
would have go with PSP on top. There are three factors I see playing
a crucial role in the battle for the handheld market:
1. Available content from successful franchises and third parties.
True, a lot of the same developers are working in the DS space,
but not to the level that they are for PSP. PlayStation-only franchises
such as Devil May Cry, GTA, and others really make the
PSP a must have in the market. True, hot titles like Metroid,
Zelda and the other big N franchises are going to be on DS,
but it's less likely that they can secure exclusivity from third
parties in the same waters as Sony (the king of third-party exclusives.)
2. Marketing. Sony isn't just making a handheld gaming platform;
it's making a lifestyle device, much like the iPod. It plays games,
music, and movies and has web apps already on the horizon. All
of this, coupled with the expandable SanDisk memory, really make
it a forward-thinking gizmo. This will be something that people
"must have." Much like the PS2, but even more so, PSP
will be viewed as an icon. That's something that Nintendo really
hasn't focused on. In fact, the company hasn't really focused
on marketing much at all. With word in the press that the DS isn't
really a successor to the GBA, its place in the market is even
murkier.
3. Built-in audience. While I'm sure there are few that would
argue that the loyalty of Nintendo users is matched only by that
Mac evangelistas. Sony has a much larger share of the market -
many of these uses have been clamoring for a portable from Sony
for years. And now they're finally getting what they've wanted
for so long.
-Orme Dominique
I
see Sony taking a majority of the handheld market in the next
3 years.
More
significantly, the PSP's use of Wi-Fi to stream television, movies
and music will grow with the install base of home wireless networks.
- Anonymous
I
think there will be [a fight], especially for parents buying for
children. I can't see a lot of kids owning both. I believe that
Sony will eventually come out on top with the PSP. I believe that
the handhelds are even going to cut into the console market.
-Jim Busike, Killergame
Nintendo
know they wouldn't win a direct fight for the hardcore audience,
so they are focusing on fringe appeal and Nintendo-philes to carry
the DS. Prediction: When the PSP comes out it will do very well,
and outstrip the sales of the DS very quickly. Justification:
GTA on the PSP and the big screen.
Of
course, there is competition, but Nintendo has decided it wants
to mitigate it. I believe it when Nintendo says it genuinely wants
to grow the overall games market. I just don't think the DS will
do this as well as it hopes.
-C F, TCD
Yes,
I believe there is a shared market between any handheld game platforms.
I think PSP will definitely win the largest portion of market
share, given the announced pricing.
- Anonymous
There
IS a fight for market share. The DS has its pluses, but the PSP
looks like it could become a phenomenon. I have both, but I don't
want to carry both around. The PSP is a much sexier, more powerful
and more versatile handheld, and therefore the DS stays at home.
If
the PSP had been more expensive, then I think the markets would
have been more polarized. At the current price I think it puts
incredible pressure on the DS, even though they are both selling
well.
I
am developing for the PSP only, so this may all seem somewhat
biased. I've always been a big fan of Nintendo, but I can't help
feeling that the DS seems somewhat dated, and the PSP feels like
the future.
-Bob Stevenson, Planet Moon Studios
There
will be no fight. The PSP has already won the focus - and dollars
- of publishers. In that sense, the race was over before it even
began. The DS will always be a niche machine for however long
its lifespan ends up being. And that's a real shame, as it has
so much potential for unique and fun gameplay. But no one is investing
any time/money/creativity in their DS lineup, so the potential
will never be realized. There will be more games for the PSP U.S.
launch that the DS will probably get all year.
I
think there is a fight for market share - they are similar devices
at a similar price-point. Contrary to popular opinion, I feel
Sony is skewing more towards casual consumers (who might use it
as an mp3 player, and who care about a portable GTA,
Madden, Game Sequel #47, etc), whereas Nintendo is shooting
for hard-core gamers (who care about unique gameplay). But I think
most people would choose one or the other, and Sony has already
won the battle.
- Anonymous
The
markets for the DS and the PSP will certainly overlap, so it seems
that it is really a question of where, and how much. To me, it
is apparent that the appeal of the PSP reaches all gamers, casual
and hardcore. Since the price point for the PSP is expected to
be higher than that of the DS, what I think we'll see is that
more casual gamers will gravitate towards the DS, as well as children
who's parents might shy away from the idea of giving them a more
expensive handheld, for example. Anyone serious about games with
the means, however, will certainly pick up a PSP. Inevitable price
drops for the PSP could very well spell hard times for Nintendo's
little giant. What we should see once Sony's handheld is released
to local markets may ultimately prove to be very similar to how
Sony and Nintendo relate in the home console arena. Also, everyone
wants great graphics, young, old, rich, and poor. When you compare
the DS to the PSP, the difference in technical capabilities is
greater than that of the handhelds' respective home units. For
those who own a DS, once their touch screens become worn out and
scratched from use with the stylus, the gimmick of a spare screen
may wear just a bit. Simply put, the PSP appeals to all gamers,
so what market share in the gaming world does Nintendo's system
aim for that Sony's does not?
-Demitrius Pennebaker
Until
Nintendo releases a game that is both fun and takes full advantage
of the capabilities of their handheld, the PSP will blow them
out of the water. The reason that people tout the DS is the features
that so far have not been exploited fully. Look at the sheer number
of launch titles in comparison. The only DS game I'm looking forward
to is Advance Wars DS, and that's not coming out until the end
of the summer. I'd say the only advantage Nintendo has is the
price. But really, once you're going to shell out $199 for a handheld
gaming device, why wouldn't you pay an additional $50 to buy a
handheld that will have more games?
- Anonymous
I
believe there is a substantial market share to be won by Sony
if the PSP can prove to appeal to the younger audience that Nintendo
has already captured in the past through the Game Boy Advance
and now Nintendo DS. The true test is if the Nintendo DS can sell
to the 18-34 male demographic which makes up the largest consumer
percentage in the video game industry. In the past, Nintendo has
dominated the market by being the only viable choice in the handheld
market and targeting the younger audiences with games like Pokemon
and Mario titles to push hardware sales. Currently, I think
the quality of graphics is the main attribute that consumers look
for in a video game system, both console and handheld. With a
mix of quality titles offered by the PSP at launch and the overall
graphical and technical prowess of this sleek system you will
see a sharp increase of defectors choosing the PSP over Nintendo
DS. Furthermore, the lack of titles available for the Nintendo
DS since launch will have a significant impact on hardware sales.
Therefore, I think Sony has made a wise decision to enter the
handheld market with a next generation system like the PSP, and
they will eventually be the leaders in the handheld market.
-Javier Laracuente, Bloomberg L.P.
Yes
there is. I know quite a few people who are interested in the
PSP and I'm the only one I know who has a DS. I think the PSP
will "win" because people still associate Nintendo with
kids' games and that they usually have less games then the other
systems.
Of
course, no one will win, because both companies will come out
with new systems before one of them goes bankrupt. One will just
have more market share then the other.
-Neil Marshall
This
is likely to be a repeat of Gamecube vs. PS2, with the same results.
As long as the price of the DS is substantially below the price
of the PSP, Nintendo will sell units.
-John Bolton, Page 44 Studios
I
believe that both the PSP and DS are ultimately in the same market.
Even though the PSP is being marketed as more of an entertainment
center than a games console, its biggest usage will be gaming.
I
also believe that the DS will outsell the PSP at first, because
of its cheaper price tag and earlier release date, but soon after,
people will get tired of its weak performance and graphics, and
there will be a general preference for the PSP.
- Mahmoud Swehli, swehli.com
It Could Go Either Way
Other
respondents replied that while there would be a fight for market share,
there are just too many factors that could sway the battle either way.
Some are just looking forward to a good fight.
To
put it simply, I think that yes there is. The PSP and the DS each
appeal to different demographics but there is a fair amount of overlap
in their target markets. You also have to remember that they are
fighting for developer support as well; if the PSP has a larger
installed base then the DS, it'll be more appealing a market to develop
for. But the DS also seems like it's the more interesting system to
design for (I have lots of neat ideas I'd love to try out on it myself)
and also seems to be attracting non-gamers.
If
Nintendo doesn't take the PSP seriously, they are likely to find one of
its chief pillars taken away from it. I look forward to a good fight
between these two companies.
-Matthew Freedman, EA Canada
Nintendo tends to be innovative, but is very controlling and its bottom
line hampers its innovations. It tends to stop making certain products
for use with its products (i.e. the broadband online adapter, e-Reader,
etc.) leaving a lot of customers in a lurch, Sony does that as well but
less so.
Currently
Nintendo has a couple of big advantages right now: price (Sony has some
question marks when it comes to gaming hardware reliability at the
beginning of sales) and reliability (through reputation and history)
compared to Sony. It should press the advantage as quickly as possible
by providing more and better games from the onset than Sony. If that
happens, I can see a possible win by Nintendo.
-Paul To
It
seems to me that in spite of what Nintendo says, there is an overlap in
the target audiences for the DS and PSP. Nintendo should still carry
with younger gamers, but they are going to have a fight with Sony over
the late teens thru adult segment of the market (which the PSP is
geared toward). Ultimately, I think the quality of content on the 2
platforms will be a deciding factor on who "wins", assuming there is a
clear winner. The PSP looks just cool enough that Sony could succeed in
expanding the handheld market for all.
- Anonymous
Given
the way that the Xbox has taken on the Playstation in recent years,
it's possible that the PSP could challenge the DS in the same way. That
said, the DS is a pretty awesome little device, and developers have
shown some great innovation with the launch titles that I've seen. So,
by virtue of those two conflicting points of view, I would say that
yes, there is a fight for market share between the PSP and DS.
-Coray Seifert, Large Animal Games
I
think that there will certainly be people who will compare the two
systems and choose to buy either a PSP or DS - and the result of that
choice (on a market scale) will help determine which company sells the
higher number of units overall (i.e. the market share). However, I
think the introduction of both of these units will help grow the
overall market, with the net effect of helping both companies sell more
units overall (in comparison to the number they would have sold if the
other company had never introduced its respective handheld gaming
system.)
- Anonymous
Of
course there is - people on the whole won't buy both a PSP and a DS,
but there is an argument to say there is less crossover of that market
share than some might think. Curiously I don't think that either side
will claim a significant win - though the PSP will sell well, it's only
replicating (effectively) existing PS2's capabilities. The DS is
innovative, but will depend on the games developing and aiming slightly
at a slightly older audience than right now - plus they've got a sales
head start.
Conclusion: The handheld games market is big enough for both - a draw.
-Phil Elliott, BBC Radio Five Live
Nintendo
has dominated the handheld market for years. There has never even been
a real contender to put up a fight until the PSP. It comes down to a
simple fact, if the PSP takes away some of Nintendo's market share,
then they are competing. I think that the PSP will eat away a bit of
the handheld market from Nintendo. Competition is a good thing - it
will force Nintendo to put out a better product and make significant
advancements in the handheld arena in order to compete with future
versions of PSP.
-Kirk Baum, Incognito Studio
There
will definitely be a fight for market share. Regardless of what
demographic each company is going for, the fact remains that they are
in the same market: hand-held gaming. It would be asinine to put each
handheld in its own category because one has a touch screen, and the
other plays movies. A hand-held gaming system is a hand-held gaming
system - each with its own independent strengths and weaknesses.
Mobile
gamers aren't necessarily looking for an immense catalog of games, but
rather are looking for something to hold their attention, and entertain
them on car trips, between classes, or in transit to school or work. I
don't feel third party support will be as key as many expect it to be,
but rather, the victor in this slug-fest will be determined by
delivering the most well-rounded and solid selection of games, in the
shortest period of time.
-David Hinderer, Protis Executive Innovations
Sure they are [competitive]. I am deciding which one I will buy right now.
-Tuang Dheandhanoo, Black Hammer Games
It's a Non-Issue
Finally,
some thought that the fight for market share is a non-issue, as the two
devices are disimilar and occupy different parts of the market with
little or no overlap. Some see the PSP as a multimedia portable aimed
at capturing an older audience, and the DS as a creative new innovation
catering to a younger and more casual market. With the diverse array of
responses we received, it's hard to see any clear-cut consensus among
our respondents. Thank you for all your responses.
No,
there isn't really [competition]. Nintendo is aiming to please portable
gamers who have, for the most part, been playing Game Boys for the past
fifteen years. Sony, on the other hand, is trying to turn their
mainstream console fans into portable gamers by offering a multimedia
device that is every bit as sleek as high end cell phones. Is there
some overlap? Of course there is. Who wins there? I'd say Nintendo,
because of an already established, loyal fanbase and backwards
compatibility as well as excellent third party support and the kind of
first party development Sony has always aspired to. Still, the two
portables are too different from each other to really compete directly.
-La Mar Williams II
No,
they point at completely different target users. DS is much more
oriented to the casual/social gamer, where PSP is looking straight into
the eyes of the hardcore players.
- Anonymous
I
don't see any competition. They are obviously aimed at very different
markets. The price difference is substantial, and the multi-function
nature of the PSP skews it towards an older market. Anybody that likes
games and can afford both will just get both anyway.
- Anonymous
I
think Nintendo is right - the two handhelds really don't have that much
in common, and this will be borne out by the software released for
each. The DS will be the home for quirky touch-screen games and N64
ports, and the PSP will feature more of the same stuff that we've seen
on PS2, except playing it even safer because of the small installed
base.
- Anonymous
Nintendo's
claim is that they are for different markets. PSP seems to be the
device for the older market, the one that the Nokia N-Gage
spectacularly failed to capture. I think there's room for both. The DS
wins on innovation though. I expect to see more original games on the
DS than the PSP. The PSP is the perfect device for ports of all the
classic PS/PS2 games. Who's willing to buy them twice? A few, but
there's a smaller market than for original games, or at least games
rewritten to make the most of the new device (see Mario DS for example)
-Craig Nicol, University of Glasgow
I don't think there is one. The DS seems to be more for a younger audience than the PSP.
- Anonymous
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[Article
illustration by Arjan Westerdiep @ drububu.com]