[In the industry's most-read NPD analysis, Gamasutra analyst Matt Matthews looks at the state of the U.S. game market going into 2009, from Nintendo dominance through Call Of Duty's evolution.]
As 2009 opens, the video game industry is reorganizing itself.
Publishers are restructuring and modifying product schedules, while
some development houses have disbanded.
However, these are changes
that the retail world will not feel for several months yet.
Accordingly the modest sales growth from December 2008 has continued
into the new year, and analysts expect modest gains to extend through
much of 2009.
The reality is that Nintendo rules this industry. Hardware,
software, and accessory sales for Nintendo's twin powerhouses, the Wii and Nintendo DS, accounted for nearly half of all revenue in
2008.
For the first month of the new year, Nintendo's platforms
claimed nearly 52% of all industry dollars, up from 33% for the same
period last year.
While Sony's platforms appear to be languishing, the Xbox 360
continues to sell hardware at historically high rates and is
maintaining its robust software sales.
This year will likely
determine whether publishers can continue to justify big budget
cross-platform games for the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 -- even as Wii
software dominates the top slots in the sales charts.
Nintendo Dodges Shortages, Microsoft Surges
During the second half of 2006, after the introduction of the Lite
version of the Nintendo DS, headlines each month declared more
extraordinary sales figures for the dual-screen handheld.
Since the
introduction of the Nintendo Wii, whose sales have been just as
remarkable, it has become nearly commonplace to see Nintendo leading
both handhelds and consoles as new monthly figures are reported by the
NPD Group.
The Nintendo Wii again led console sales in January 2009, as
it did during the prior fifteen consecutive months. Coming down from
the peak in December, Nintendo still managed to sell almost 170,000
systems per week, or nearly 2.5 times as many systems as it sold in
January of the previous year.
In 2008, Nintendo appeared to struggle
to supply Wii (and Nintendo DS) hardware during the first month of
the year, and appears to have settled those issues for the beginning
of 2009.
Microsoft sold over 77,000 Xbox 360 systems per week during the month,
which should be considered quite strong.
By comparison, the only
months during which the Xbox 360 has had a higher weekly sales rate
were holiday months (Novembers and Decembers), the Halo 3 launch
period (September and October 2007), and the strong October leading
into the 2008 holiday season.