A new report from Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia estimates that if Take-Two Interactive releases the next installment in the Grand Theft Auto
franchise during the next fiscal year starting in April, the publisher could potentially see sales of up to 25 million during its first year on sale.
The analyst said that he was increasing the company's previous unit sales estimate of 15 million for GTA V
to 17 million, as he sees "significant upside potential" for the title.
However, he noted that even this new estimate may prove conservative, given that GTA IV
sold through 17 million units in its first year, and the install base of PS3 and Xbox 360 is expected to be 125 percent higher at the point when GTA V
He said that, given the circumstances, it is very possible that the upcoming game could even sell between 20 million and 25 million units in its first year.
The analyst put forward the following scenario: If 90 percent of GTA IV
owners purchase GTA V
, and only 10 percent of the incremental install base buy the game, then sales would surpass 20 million units.
Elsewhere, Bhatia said that Take-Two's lineup for the next fiscal year is looking strong, with the likes of Bioshock Infinite, Borderlands 2
and Spec Ops: The Line
He said that, for the remainder of the current fiscal year, the potential launch and growing speculation for the long-awaited Max Payne 3
may work in the company's favor, to offset the fate of its October NBA
due to the ongoing NBA lockout